Friday, August 14, 2009

Barely breathing

At this point it's almost comical that I'm doing so poorly in Monmouth Park's 'Survival at the Shore' contest, yet still I survive. I'm currently in 243rd place; my bankroll of $811.20 is almost $400 behind the leader. I had been up as high as 160th or so about 4-5 weeks ago, ~$275 behind the leader, but any slim hopes I had of pulling off some sort of miracle have long since dissipated. In a way I'm hoping I get eliminated soon just so I'm put out of my misery, but at the same time I continue to derive some enjoyment from the Wed-Sun action.

Some observations:
-I'm ranked 243, but there are only 233 remaining survivors. I think there are only 12 surviving players behind me.
-In the "Winners" category, I rank 364th and DEAD LAST among surviving players, with 28 wins, or less than 0.5 wins per day. My 28 win total is a full 5 wins fewer than the next survivor. So I guess I've generated a relatively high proportion of my bankroll through 2nd and 3rd place finishers.
-I had tried to pick some mix of prices and "sure" shots every day, but lately I've been going towards big prices. After all, I have nothing to lose.
-I'm glad this is all notional money. There have been 59 racing days so far, figure $18 a day ($2WPS on one horse in three races), that's $1,080 worth of bets. "Winning" an $811.20 bankroll off that implies a -25% ROI, significantly worse than the 18% take on win, place and show bets. And I'm one of the survivors!

Tough game.

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