Red Rock or Bust

Inauspicious '12 Bow

2012-01-22T05:55:00.000-08:00

Came up snake eyes in yesterday's Simulcast Series Challenge Invitational at Monmouth Park: $0 final bankroll, tied for last place.

I had a brief run at contention in late afternoon, when my $20W bet on Tarpy's Goal ($11) in GP7 pushed up my bankroll up from half-the-starting-point $50 to $140. This put me about 18th place in a 134-person field where the top 10 finishers won prize money and the top 15 qualified for the April SSC Invitational, which sends 2 players to the 2013 NHC.

But alas, that $140 proved to be my high-water mark as I didn't hit another bet, the biggest of which were $30W on 21-1 Navy Wings in GP8 (ran evenly in mid-pack) and $50W on 5-1 Chosen Heir in GP9 (finished dead last, yikes).

I did make some questionable decisions with my last $50. Rather than concentrate on one price play as I would typically do, I went $25W on 7-2 Canadian Mistress in Tam10 and $25W on 2-1 Cozzetti in the almost-concurrent GP10. My plan was to hit both, or at least one, of the 'safe' plays and boost my bankroll enough to take a bigger shot in the final two races.

But as Mike Tyson said, everybody has a plan until they get hit. Both my 'safe' plays lost (Cozzetti was especially disappointing for a horse who opened at 3-5), and NJHorseplayer and I took an ignominious exit out into the frigid winter landscape.

I have no real regrets from this day. I liked both the Navy Wings and the Chosen Heir bets. I did sort of dodge a bullet in the sense that even if I had played my last $50 better, the outcome would have been the same as I most likely would not have had the winners in the 10th and 11th races at either track, including the $35 winner in the Tampa feach.

Onward and upward, next stop SSC #2 at Monmouth Park on Feb. 18.

I'm Not Going to Vegas (After All)!

2012-01-12T17:51:00.000-08:00

Kind of old news but I wanted to update the blog.

To recap: I was gonna go to the Last Chance NHC Qualifier in Vegas on Wed. Jan. 25 because I won what I thought was a $500 entry into the contest and a $500 travel voucher in a Dec. 26 HorsePlayersQualify.com contest. I was totally there.

But the $500 entry + $500 "travel voucher" (is there such a thing?) showed up in my mailbox in the form of a plain old $1,000 check, which prompted me to reassess my plan.

I was still gonna go, last week I even went as far as booking a flight ($340 r/t, Newark to Vegas). BUT just a couple hours after I booked, I learned that NHCQualify was having a last chance, $400 online contest on Sunday Jan. 8, that offered about the same or a slightly better chance to qualify compared with the Vegas Last Chance.

So at that point I said ah screw it, cancelled my flight, signed up for NHCQualify, and tucked the $600 into my proverbial pocket to deploy for future contests.

Ultimately I opted out because the Vegas trip just felt like a goose chase. As I said previously, I totally would be in if they signed me up and told me to just show up. But when it turned into a discretionary decision, my thinking went along these lines:
1. The specs of the last-chance Vegas contest-- $500 ante, 5 NHC spots, max 150 field, 30% back in prize money 70% to NHC pot -- are nothing special.
2. I dislike flying, so the idea of night and redeye flights was not appealing. Granted there would be some adventure to going to Vegas, but for me that would be trumped by (probably) losing in the contest followed by a 7-hour full flight in the middle seat, culminating in a 6am arrival at Newark airport. I would be dirty, tired, and cranky -- no thanks!
3. When I won some coin back in March at a Monmouth contest, I didn't use the money to start flying to contests all over the place, so why would I do it this time (with just 1/6 of my March winnings)?

So that's my story and I'm sticking to it. There will be no NHC for me in 2012 (I finished up the track in the NHCQualify Last Chance this past Sunday).

I am looking forward to the long journey towards the 2013 NHC, which I hereby GUARANTEE I will qualify for. If I fail to qualify, I will give all readers a free one-year premium subscription to the RedRockorBust blog.

The fun starts next Saturday at Monmouth Park.

I'm Going to Vegas*!

2011-12-26T17:19:00.000-08:00

*but probably not for the NHC

That's right. I didn't qualify for the 2012 NHC, but I did qualify for a play-in contest to the 2012 NHC via Horseplayersqualify.com.

Here's how it went down. After being pretty much resigned to my fate of not qualifying for the 2012 NHC because I failed to qualify in the first 11 3/4 months of 2011, I received an e-mail from William H. at NJHorseplayer.com that mentioned he would be participating in today's contest, which I had been unaware of. I wasn't crazy about the specs, i.e. 1/3 takeout and seemingly a wild-goose chase to Vegas, but given the low $50 ante and with me nursing a Christmas cold and half a box of wine to kick, I figured I'd give it a whirl and sign up.

I didn't spend much time on the PPs, but the planets aligned for my tried-and-true short-cut angles. Trainer recency landed me on American Blend at 5SA ($23 to win, $9.40 to place) and Voce de Leone in 9GP ($10.80, $5), while an odds-movement pattern pointed me to Gorgelicious in 7GP ($10.60 to place). Throw in a few logical chalks (What a Rush in 2SA, Bernster in 3SA, Tiz a Theme in 11GP), and I had enough notional bankroll to finish in 6th place of 240 contestants.

So along with the five folks who finished ahead of me and the two who finished right behind me, I won a free entry to the Treasure Island play-in on Wednesday Jan. 25 ($500 value), plus a $500 travel voucher to Sin City.

I'm not sure what the specs are for the play-in, but given the fairly steep $500 ante I'm assuming it'll come with a reasonable chance to qualify, perhaps 1/15 or somesuch. I'll plan to go to Vegas on Tues Jan. 24 and return late-night Wed. Jan. 25; I'll try to fly Southwest (no change fees), so on the off chance that I qualify I'll stick around for the NHC, which is Fri Jan. 27-Sat Jan. 28.

I kind of feel like a middling college team heading into its conference tourney on a hot (or at least warm) streak, hoping to win at least a couple more games to qualify for the NCAA tournament.

I probably won't qualify, but it will be fun.

Whad Up Wit Dat? The Future of Monmouth Park (Part III)

2011-12-18T18:47:00.001-08:00

Is Oceanport, N.J. the new Flint, Michigan?

OK granted that is a stretch, but there are some real similarities.

A declining industry that is a big part of the tax base. Government mulling what if any support is warranted. Erstwhile white-knight investors kicking tires, but not biting.

Whereas the U.S. auto industry seems to have at least stabilized, albeit in a much smaller form, the future of horse racing on the Jersey Shore can only aspire to that outcome right now.

I have previously weighed in on the future of Monmouth Park here and here. In Part III of Whad Up Wit Dat?, I offer my 2 cents on the latest developments.

According to the most recent report, the state of New Jersey will continue to operate Monmouth Park in 2012 while a private investor is sought. While that is decidedly good news compared with the stone-cold closure that seemed to have been on the table, the indicated purses are Grim City: about $150-175K per day, or whatever is supported by betting handle. In other words, the state will run the track but will not be on the hook for any losses, which from what I understand have run into the millions of dollars in recent meets.

How grim is $150-175K per day? Well I took a gander at Equibase.com for a cheapie track as a frame of reference...landed on Penn National, Dec. 17 card....added up the purses of the 9 races...and hit out to $167K. So just two years after Monmouth Park's "Elite Meet" lured jockeys John Velazquez and Garrett Gomez from New York and California, the 141-day "Shit-Ass Meet" beckons, with lots of short fields and lunchpail $10K-$20K races. Blech.

A few observations:

-I'm not sure how they hit out to the $150-175K range -- I wonder if that's overly optimistic, because I see clear potential for a negative cycle: crummy racing leads to less betting, which leads to lower purses, which leads to crummier racing.

-Toughest job in sports in 2012: marketing Monmouth Park.

-Second-toughest job: NJ thoroughbred breeder. Just a few days ago, the Wall Street Journal ran a story about how thoroughbred breeding in New York is on the rise, buoyed by money from the new Aqueduct casino. Horse breeding in NJ is no doubt moving in the opposite direction, amid seemingly never-ending uncertainty about the future of racing in the state and now a withdrawn private-investment bid and the specter or harsh purse cuts. I suspect you can probably get a nice NJ-bred horse these days for very cheap.

-I imagine finding a private investor will be very difficult. Nothing about the economics of Monmouth Park will change in the near-term: horse racing is still in decline and the economy is still lousy, so the place will continue to lose money. And Gov. Christie has picked Atlantic City over horse racing, so any sort of casino/slot development at Monmouth or the Meadowlands is pretty much a pipe dream. One guy (Morris Bailey) has already walked away from leasing Monmouth Park, why would anyone else sign on without a game changer?

Personally, I hope Monmouth keeps its handicapping contests, especially its winter Simulcast Series Challenge. But beyond that, I'm more or less apathetic. In a way I lament the demise of Monmouth Park, and I disagree with Christie in his choice of AC over the tracks, but at the same time I agree with Christie conceptually that the state should not be in the business of subsidizing money-losing sports like horse racing. The fact that horse racing can't make it on its own is the free market saying that it should go away. Lord knows horse racing needs consolidation, so in the worst-case scenario of a Monmouth closure, presumably the product at NY and some mid-Atlantic tracks would be strengthened.

Smoked

2011-11-16T17:37:00.000-08:00

Rough weekend for yours truly at last weekend's Aqueduct handicapping contest, as I finished 168th of 225 and was never really involved.

My only winner of the whole damn weekend was Mon Rose in the 5th at Aqueduct on Saturday. She paid $11, putting my notional bankroll at $110, good for about 45th place at this early juncture (2:30 p.m. Saturday). I was feeling good at that time, but little did I know that would be my high-water mark for the weekend.

Quick an' dirty bet recap (note each bet is a notional $20W unless otherwise specified):

Saturday

2Aqu, Rock On Home, 9-1: had a nice easy front-running trip and spurted away at the top of the stretch, but faded late to 4th

4 Crc, Vero's Hero, 6-1: I saw some odds movement here but this horse did nothing

5Aqu, Mon Rose, 9-2: got kind of lucky with this my only winner, as I only decided to bet it at the last minute

5CD, Glynisthemenace, 21-1 (would have been capped at 15-1): was feeling a bit bold after winning with Mon Rose. This race was wide-open with lots of prices, unfortunately mine didn't come in

6CD, A.P. Diva, 23-1 (would have been capped): had a nice stalking trip and dead aim on the leaders in the stretch, but wasn't good enough. Gave me a brief thrill but only managed 3rd.

7Aqu, Market Strike, 13-1: first-time Dutrow starter, did nothing

7CD, For All Who Conga, 9-2: didn't pick up his feet

8Aqu, Musical Rain, 5-1: rallied late but only managed a non-threatening 3rd. $10.80 winner Hit It Rich was my second choice, very playable

9Aqu, King Keene, 36-1 (would have been capped): did nothing. He had a hint of turf pedigree and was making first start on the lawn, but this was definitely a reach

10CD, Cover Boy, 25-1 (double bet, $4oW): kind of a nutty pick, especially as my only double bet of the day, but no-name trainer Carolyn Murphy had been live so I thought it was worth a flyer. Not sure if this horse was or wasn't live though as he had to take up sharply early in this sprint race and lost all chance

So after Saturday I had a fairly meager bankroll of $110. The leader had about $700. NYRA.com didn't post the full standings at the halfway point, but I'm sure I was midpackish, probably around 110-120th.

I was bummed that I couldn't eke out at least one winner after Mon Rose. I can't say I was real close on anything, either; what I was close with were two different horses who I almost bet but didn't. Both almost won, at about 8-1 each. So I dodged bullets there.

Going into Sunday I decided to try to get back into contention in a meaningful way from the get-go, or not at all. There wasn't anything I really liked anywhere, and I didn't want to subject myself to a slow drip of losing and then suddenly it's 4 p.m. and I have 3 bets left and I'm hopelessly out of it -- I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory and at least be home in time to catch some of the late-afternoon football games.

Here's what I did:

1Aqu, File Gumbo, 7-1: I originally liked a horse that scratched out of this race but thought FG was a decent fallback, but he did nothing

1CD, Folowthemoneytrail, 34-1 (double bet, $40W, odds would have been capped): I told you I was going hell-bent for leather early in the afternoon. "Lost footing start" was the comment and he finished 5th.

2CD, Baby Afleet, 12-1: nowheresville

3Aqu, Page by Page, 9-2: not-good-enough 3rd behind the chalks

4Aqu, St. Lucy, 8-1: wide 4th

4CD, Raquel, 6-1: looked strong at one point but flattened out and only managed 3rd.

At this point, down half my Sunday bets including the double, I was pretty much cooked. Even if I ran the table the rest of the way I would have been lucky to crack the top 20. So I made a few more bets , including my last 3 on my way out the door and that was that.

See you next year NYRA!

Last Stand

2011-11-11T16:40:00.000-08:00

First off allow me to apologize for being a lame-ass blogger and not showing up for almost two months now. My excuses are: busy with work, cannibalization by twitter (I once read a tweet that said "86% of all blog posts start with 'sorry I haven't been blogging...'"), and the sun got in my eyes.

Long story short, I'm still unqualified for the 2012 NHC, so in a hail-mary attempt to rectify that I'll be participating in the Aqueduct handicapping contest this weekend (Sat-Sun). It will be my last live contest of 2011. I'm taking the 9:57 a.m. NJ Transit train from South Orange to NYC, then switching to MTA and A-training to the Big A. I should be there at about 11:30, plenty of time to sign and settle in for a 12:20 first post.

I can't say I'm totally amped yet but I am looking forward to it and I'm sure my pulse will quicken once I get there. It's a full-immersion weekend (2 days, 3 cards per day) to be sure, and NYRA does it right, with a decent food spread and a comfortable and fun atmosphere that includes draft beer by midafternoon.

I haven't been following the races worth a damn recently (maybe a 3 on an earnestness scale of 1 to 10 at Aqueduct; 2 at Churchill; and 1 at Calder) so I am kidding myself if I think I can effectively cover 60+ races over two days by straight-shot past-performance and replay analysis. Instead, I'll be relying on my usual short-cut angles such as trainer recency and odds-movement patterns. Trust the angles, baby.

A couple general observations on playing these NYRA contests: (1) having at least some measure of early speed is critical, given the stipulated # and amount of bets. There's no coming from the clouds with an all-in thing like you can do in the NJ contests. As Yogi Berra would say, it gets late early at these things. (2) Some of my more "angle-y" plays are at CD and Crc, so I'm guessing I end up playing on the conservative side at Aqueduct (maybe as low as 7-2 or 3-1) and try to nail prices at Churchill and Calder.

That's all folks.

Late Collapse Dooms Red Rock or Bust

2011-09-19T18:42:00.000-07:00

I finished with $0.40 in the Monmouth-Woodbine handicapping contest at Monmouth last Sunday (9/18). I went from rags to riches, then back to rags in what turned out to be a topsy-turvy late afternoon, but the bottom line was a very disappointing finish.

I won't bore you with the full blow-by-blow recap, rather I'll fast-forward to the Woodbine Mile, the penultimate race on the WO card. My starting bankroll of $100 was down to $52 going into the race, as I had had just one smallish winner before that. It was late in the day and I didn't see much that I liked afterwards, so I decided it was time for a win-or-go-home bet. I put $52W on Turallure, and lo and behold if he didn't storm from 11th place with 1/4 mile to go to win. I actually had given up on the horse at the top of the stretch (as did his trainer, according to the DRF recap of the race) and I was watching the leaders' late duel; it wasn't until after the wire that NJ Horseplayer dot com remarked that the 8 had won did I realize my afternoon wasn't done yet.

The Turallure win got me to $387.40 and like 4th place. After a losing $10 bet, it was down to two races, the Woodbine finale then the Monmouth finale. With $377.40, just a few hundred bucks from cracking the top 2, I was right in the striking position I wanted to be.

I didn't have much of an opinion in either contest race left. At Woodbine, I was mildly intrigued by price plays Captain Crow and Raynham, but I ended up putting $100W on the 6-5 chalk Control. My reasoning was, I thought Control was the most likely winner of the race -- he wasn't gonna win me the contest, but if he won it would have hurt a lot of longshot players and put me in a much better position heading into the last contest race.

But Control didn;t pick up his feet really, and to add insult to injury, Captain Crow (9-1) and Raynham (11-1) finished 2-1.

So I was down to $277.40 and around 10th place, with one race left -- the Monmouth finale, a $10K tomato-can maiden claimer. At first I liked Call Me Sweetheart at the 9-2 price he was at early in the wagering, but then I went off him when he dropped to 5-2 (eventually 2-1) and switched to my second choice, Praymore (who went off at 5-2). I put $177W and $100P on Praymore, goes to the lead but tires to finish 6th, while Call me Sweetheart wins. F'in A, I'm done.

My post-contest autopsy was a bit more painful than usual, as I concluded that my post-Turallure decisions were highly questionable.

For one, the $100W bet on the 6-5 chalk at Woodbine was a shitty bet, in retrospect. I'm not saying that I 'shoulda' bet either the 11-1 winner or the 9-1 second choice with any vigor, as I wasn't crazy about either one, but the right bet was probably $5WP, maybe $10WP on one of those two. Not betting the race was not an option b/c I needed to bet to make my five-race WO minimum, but that 6-5 POS was just no value at all.

Secondly, a pretty-strong case can be made that I erred in going off eventual winner in the Monmouth finale. I went off Call Me Sweetheart because he was 5-2 (eventually 2-1), only to land on Praymore -- who went off at 2.60-1. I'm not sure what value differential I was seeing, because there really wasn't one. Also, from a handicapping perspective, dirt races were being won all day by 3-4 wide movers, and Praymore broke from the rail. I missed that angle.

So in sum it was a good contest in that I was in contention with a real chance late in the day, which (as anyone who reads this blog knows) is all I ask.
It was bad because I think I may have screwed up with my late decisions, which sticks in my craw.

I will add that I felt a bit better after seeing the 838.90 and 833.50 top finishing bankrolls. Had I played my $177W, $100P winner in the Mth finale, I would have finished with 721.40; had I only bet $10 rather than $100 in the WO finale AND hit the Monmouth finale, I would have finished with $811.40. Third place money and glory would have been nice and all, but I can't lament missing that too much. The only way I would have won is if I had made a small bet on one of the longshots I mildly liked in the WO finale that finished 1-2, AND had the Monmouth winner. That's not an entirely implausible scenario, but it is a double if, which starts to detach from reality and veer down a very hypothetical road.

One last observation I have relates to an question that I continue to struggle with in these contests: when you're in it late and looking at a race (or races) in which you don't really have an opinion, do you go all in or do you pick up your ball and go home? (I don't think there's any real in-between answer.)

My working answer is to go all in, as I believe that opportunities to take down a contest don't come around very often, and you have to take a shot when they do. Also, the real odds go way up in late-day situations if you add in the prospective prize money and value of NHC berth to whatever you'd collect from the bet(s) itself -- Praymore in the Mth finale was more like 8-1 for me rather than 5-2, factoring in the $1,332 prize money I 'woulda' won by finishing in 3rd place.

But at the same time, there is something to be said for quitting with a few hundred bucks and deploying that cash to fight another day...

I coulda been a contender...

2011-08-07T18:22:00.000-07:00

I'm back from yesterday's the handicapping contest at the Nassau Race Palace OTB on Long Island. It only took me two trains and a cab to get there, but what the hey, it'll be my only live contest this month.

Unfortunately my results didn't match up to the adventure of the day, as I failed to finish in the top 10 of the ~90 or so players as was needed to win any prize money. (Congratulations to Paul Schurman or Shurman and Robert Rodriguez, who finished 1-2 according to this half-baked contest recap I found.) I probably finished about 40th, which means nothing really, as in this contest 11th place got you the same -$300 net loss as 90th place. And whereas in many contests I walk away with a c'est la vie, in this one I had a fairly significant coulda woulda shoulda.

Here's what I did with my 10 notional $2WP bets:

1. 1Sar, Indian Tale: I liked this horse a bunch at 6-1 in a shortish field, and he came flying late but ran out of real estate and fell a head short. a $15 winner would have been a sweet start, instead I got just $7.60 to place; better than losing of course, but still a pisser.

2. 3Mth, Spangled Star: Thought a speed duel could set him up, trainer Patricia Farro had won the previous race, and 6-1 was a decent price. They did run fast early but that didn't help Spangled Star, who never ran a jump.

3. 4Mth, Brown Eyed Nance: This was a real speculative play based pretty much entirely on trainer DiMauro having won a race the previous day. She broke decently and was forwardly placed in this turf sprint, but she faded like you would expect for a 32-1 shot. Woulda been a nice capper, but I can't say I was surprised by the outcome.

4. 5Sar, Evan's Rocket: I wasn't cuckoo crazy about this horse, but coming off the turf made for some chaos on the oddsboard in my opinion, including an awful 2-1 favorite. Evan's Rocket scored at 9-1, which got me back $32.40 and boosted my bankroll to an even $40, good for a tie for 11th place.

5. 6Sar, Washington's Rules: Thought this closer had a decent shot at 8-1, especially as the McPeek/Cruz connection had shown some life in previous days. But the 6-5 chalk ran like a 6-5 chalk and won by the length of the stretch, with W's R checking in a non-threatening third.
6. 7Sar, Oatka Idas Rose: killer. Going into the race I was interested in Funky Munky Mama, as low-profile trainer Gary Gullo had won on Saturday. Then I see she clicks from 15-1 ML to about 8-1 early in the betting, before drifting back to almost 14-1. But despite the double angle, I talk myself into believing there's too much early speed in the race, which will screw Funky Munky and set it up for a closer, like Oatka. What happens? Funky Munky goes wire-to-wire and pays 29.80 and 12.20; Oatka checks in third. Ouch, man -- this one hurt.
7. 8Sar, Callmenancy: McPeek/Cruz screw me again as first-time starter runs last at 20-1.
I think Yogi Berra was at one of these fixed-number-of-bet contests when he said "it gets late early around here," as my remaining bullets were few and it was starting to feel late.
8. 9Sar, Wild News: this was a shitty bet, in retrospect. I thought C.C. Lopez could take advantage of the track bias and speed-pop the compact field at 5-1; she vied for the lead for about a whole 100 yards before backing up.
9. 10Mth, My Sweet Nenana: Actually ran a decent 3rd at 18-1 but never really threatened.
10. 10Sar, Bank Merger: ran 7th of 8 but whatever, I was done.

So that was that. If I had stayed with Funky Munky Mama on my 6th bet, I "woulda" been in first place with $82, and "woulda" finished no worse than 7th place. (Top 10 was:

Paul Shurman, $115.80
Robert Ramirez, $115.40
Chris Olsson, $110.00
Matthew Levy, $103.90
Sydney Cohn, $92.70
Ron Rippey, $89.60
Robert Felt, $81.00
Leonard Ficcarelle, $80.40
Mitch Schuman, $77.40
Ken Seeman, $75.80)

I may have done a couple places better than 7th, as I think I "woulda" played a bit more conservatively in the later races. But I can't say I "woulda" had a chance at the top 3, because I didn't like any of the late-day prices. But that's all academic.

The unanswered question is, should I have played Funky Munky Mama? There's no clear black and white here -- it's gray -- and I'm thinking the answer is somewhere between maybe and probably. I do like my angles, but I also like to look at the form in a more traditional manner as well to support (or in this case, argue against) the angles. In Wall Street parlance, it's kind of like an automated trading strategy with a discretionary human override -- yesterday, that override just happened to screw me.

I still think I'll have better long-term results with the discretionary human override rather than without, but at the same time I have a feeling that the next time I see a double angle at 14-1, I'll be telling myself where to put the override.

My Own Mini-Qualifier

2011-07-13T18:18:00.000-07:00

I would like to play in the Saratoga Handicapping Challenge on Wed-Thu Aug 10-11. I have the days off work, I can afford it, and I think it would be a lot of fun while providing a decent chance to win some prize money (1/15) and maybe even an elusive NHC seat (1/50).

However, the $1,000 ante stopped me in my tracks. I had arranged for the days off on the expectation that the ante would be $400, as the two other NYRA contests are. I am still ahead a shade north of $4K this year thanks to a March windfall, so I can use some more tax-loss offsets, but there are still a bunch more contests to be played this year and $1K (more like $1,300 when you factor in transpo and one night's lodging) in one shot is just a bit out of my comfort zone.

BUT I have come up with a compromise idea. I'm tentatively planning to budget $150 for a track excursion one day next weekend (Jul 22-23). If I can somehow net $600 profit from said excursion, I will sign up for the Spa contest -- I was going to play that for a $400 ante, and $1,000-$600 = $400.

Realistically it's a longshot, as I'd say netting $600 profit with a starting bankroll of $150 is not much better than a 1-in-10 chance approximately. But it will make for an interesting day at least.

Yeeshamundo

2011-07-03T06:10:00.000-07:00

Bad day at the office yesterday, as the NHC Super Qualifier event at Monmouth Park turned out to be a Super Dud for this NHC aspirant.

The tone was set earlyish in the day when two of my longshots, 14-1 Fast Grievance in the Belmont 3rd and 18-1 Brushed by a Star in the 6th at Monmouth, ran well but each only finished 2nd to the chalk. I did have a small place bet on Fast Grievance, but I needed a win by one or both to put me in the game early, instead I got back on heels.

My $150 initial bankroll sagged by about half before I rebounded a bit with $15W on 5-2 Dominus in the Dwyer at Belmont. This got me back up to $129, but it turned out to be fools' gold, as my next bet was $100W on 7-1 Icabad Crane in the Suburban, who is still running I think. The I put my last $29W on 10-1 Sleepless Knight in the UN at Monmouth, kind of a reach really but I needed a price. He faded (also to last, appropriately) and that was all she wrote. A jet-lagged NJ Horseplayer dot com was a fellow buster on this day, and we made our way to the exit.

Ultimately there's not a lot to say as far as a retrospective, it just wasn't my day. Late-day prices mean everything in handicapping contests, and a player could always lament and parse shoulda/woulda/couldas if he/she liked some of those late-day prices. But the unfortunate fact is that I didn't like Hungry Island ($15.60, 8Bel) Flat Out ($29.20, 10Bel), Kensei ($32.40, 10Mth), or Teaks North ($16, 11 Mth). So without having a single one of them on my to-bet list (the only one I even moderately considered was Kensei), I had no chance. A quintessential instance of going to war with a popgun.

So what's next? I'm a bit contested out after back-to-back weekends of losing contests, so for now, some regrouping is in order. I'm 98% not doing to Saratoga contest in August and the Monmouth August event was cancelled, so there are no live things until September. Until then I'll fiddle around online with stuff here and there, while lying in wait.

Stalled Out

2011-06-27T17:56:00.000-07:00

A funny thing happened to me on my way to winning the handicapping contest at Belmont Park this past weekend -- I stalled out and finished in 88th place.

I had a decent day on Saturday, ending the day in 60th of 248. I had 2 winners from 11 bets (9 notional 'single' $20 wagers plus one 'double' $40), both at Belmont -- Enniskillen, a 10-1 closer in the cheapie 5th race with some kid Irad Ortiz Jr. (who gave a damn good ride), and then Bishop of Nola in the 8th at 3.45-1. The latter was 4-1 when I bet it, kinda was marginal value ticking down to 3-1 but I stuck with it; nothing great, but as they say a short price is better than a long face.

Otherwise I was close a few times early in the day with decent prices. For example, Good Chemistry, an 8-1 shot in the Churchill 4th stalked and assumed the lead in early stretch, I thot he was a sure winner, but the damn speed came back and beat him by 3/4 length. Had he won I would have been around 20th place after Saturday. Later in the afternoon I was feeling more confident about my horses, but oddly enough that's when they were up the track for the most part.

One Saturday miss to kick myself about was Chief Grey Cloud, the 8-1 winner in the Monmouth finale -- I absolutely, positively would have bet it, but I was out of bullets by then. In hindsight, I should have looked at the day's cards more holistically and saved a bullet for that one, but I didn't.

So anyway going into Sunday I was in with a shot. The top quartile is creditable enough, though I was certainly realistic enough to acknowledge there was plenty of work to do to punch into the top 20 (or 10).

Sunday started out shittily (is that a word?). I liked Duty in Saigon in the Monmouth opener and Wascally Rabbit in the Belmont opener, which were going off 10 minutes apart. I bet Duty in Saigon 7-1, only to see him get cut off and nearly go down heading into the turn. I didn't bet Wascally Rabbit, mostly because I didn't want to be down two bullets so quickly; predictably, he wins and pays $10.60. Insert F-bomb here.

Next I bet Three Day Rush in the Churchill 3rd. I was dismayed to see him go off at 2-1, down from 7-2 when I bet him a few minutes earlier. I was further dismayed to see him lose a photo to a bomber, but heartened somewhat when that bomber was DQ'd. A $6 winner ain't gonna win me no contests, but it did get me to like 44th on the leaderboard with seven bullets left, and I was feeling decently about my chances.

However here's where it all went wrong.

I bet It'sagoodtendollars at 12-1 in the Monmouth 4th. This was a speculative play for sure, as I didn't love him, but the race was wide-open with a very vulnerable favorite so I landed on him as my alternative. He had an uneventful inside trip and ran OK but just didn't fire. The chalk lost but I didn't like the winner, 9-2 Lighthouse Sound.

Next I tried Winloc's John Lee, a 13-1 first-time starter, in the Belmont 5th. It was a very nondescript field and trainer Mike Miceli had won the 3rd race, so I thought it was worth a shot. But alas, he just ran an even and non-threatening fourth.

Onto the Churchill 6th, where I took a shot with Consulate at 10-1. He had just middling form, what caught my eye was that he dropped from a 10-1 ML to 3-1 early in the wagering, before drifting back up to his ML. I was expecting a stalking or mid-pack trip, but he "lunged" at the break and was last early; he made a run to get into striking distance at the top of the lane, but not surprisingly flattened out and finished 6th. OK, getting back on my heels here.

My next move was a ballsy one, putting my double (notional $40W) on Narbona Pass at 14-1 in the Monmouth 7th. He showed mostly crummy form and was a plodder, but I liked two things: (1) the Mth main track was different this weekend from earlier in the meet, as a few from-the-clouds closers had won or finished second; and (2) trainer Joe Pierce had won a race on Saturday. I expected Narbona Pass to be faaaaaaar back early, but apparently the instructions were to keep in the race from the start, as jockey Francisco Maysonett rode him pretty much the whole way. he did rally a bit for 3rd, somewhat validating my handicapping rationale, but it was a loss of my double bullet nevertheless. Given that there is no all-in option in this contest, things felt done for me at this point even though I had four bullets left.

This 'doneness' was confirmed after Makeminechocolate didn't run a step at 9-2 in the Belmont 7th. With just 3 bullets left, I bet the Belmont 8th, 9th, and 10th and ran to catch the 4:27 LIRR to Penn Station. Good thing, as all horses lost -- having to wait around until 6:27 (the next train) would have sucked.

So there you are, and there you have it. No real big regrets or shoulda/woulda/couldas. The key sequence for me was the four mid-afternoon Sunday bets spanning It'sagoodtendollars to Narbona Pass: I was in contention at the start of this sequence, I liked some horses, it was time to take on some risk, and I did so. Nothing came through, which sealed my fate as an also-ran.

A Swing, and a Miss

2011-06-05T17:45:00.000-07:00

We'll pick up the action from today's Monmouth/Woodbine Handicapping Contest at about 5:45 p.m.: after a 'meh' handicapping day in which I had only one 3-1 winner at Monmouth from eight bets, my initial bankroll of $100 was down to $30 and I was ready to go home, so I put down a win-or-go-home bet: $30W on Heavenly Pride in the Woodbine 10th. She wins by a neck at 4.60-1, putting me back in the ball game with a $168 bankroll. I followed that with a $40W$20P bet on Mint Maker in the 11th at Monmouth; he finishes 2nd to the chalk at 22-1, pushing my bankroll up to $236 and about 20th in the contest.

But the fat lady could have started warming up right then. I couldn't pull the trigger on anything in 11WO, which was just as well because I never would have had the 31-1 bomber Paidrag. (Apparently at least one of my rivals did, as the leading bankroll went from ~$1K to ~$4K after that race.) This left only the Monmouth finale, a grim bottom-of-the-barrel heat, to make or break my day.

I went all-in (that's right, $236W) on Mo's Mini Skirt, a first-time starter that took a little early money before drifting up to 5-1. She showed some early speed but weakened to finish 4th, so I was out the door with $0.

Putting aside the merits of Mo's Mini Skirt specifically (of which there were precious few), that last-race situation I found myself in re-raised a question I continue to struggle with as a handicapping contest player: is there ever a time when you should fold 'em and go home with a couple hundred bucks? Or do you keep swinging until the bell rings, whether or not you like a horse, on the premise that late-contest swings don't grow on trees and must be seized?

I lean towards the latter, and my track record supports this -- I can't remember the last contest I went home with unused bullets. But is this the right strategy? Something about putting down $236, or more than 10x my average bet earlier in the contest, while holding my nose in that finale today struck me as absurd -- it just flies in the face of ROI principles that would dictate picking your spots. Would it have been wiser to tuck the $236 in my wallet to deploy for another day?

I don't think there's an easy answer in this debate -- if I walk away and my erstwhile selection loses, I made a great call, but if he wins, I'm a dunce. And vice versa if I go for it. Vexing, but also part of the beauty of handicapping contests, in my view.

A Look Ahead

2011-05-04T17:44:00.001-07:00

I'm in the midst of a mini-break in handicapping contest playing and blogging: I haven't been involved in anything since my decent little 7th-place finish at the Meadowlands on April 16, and there's nothing really on the schedule until a small ($50) HPWS feeder at Monmouth Park on May 21. But there is a fair amount of stuff coming up that I thought I'd preview, so here's what I have penciled in:

(Starting on) May 6, Publichandicapper.com

I like this thing. In my opinion PH is the purest handicapping contest out there --it spans multiple tracks and races each week, it rewards selectivity and patience by requiring selections in only a modest percentage (maybe a bit north of 50%) of contest races, and it runs six months, which greatly reduces the luck factor. Any fool (even me) can catch lightning in a bottle on any given afternoon and do well in a one-day contest, but over six months, the wheat will be separated from the chaff. Plus it's free.

However, I can't get too excited as PH only qualifies one person for Vegas and there promises to be at least 1,000-2,000 players in the starting gate. I like to think (perhaps delusionally) that I'm a top 5-10% handicapper when I'm good, but I sure as hell ain't a top 0.05-0.1% handicapper.

May 21, $50HPWS Contest at Monmouth

Nothing too exciting here as it's a small contest and HPWS rather than NHC qualifier, but more likely than not I'll take a spin down and meet up with NJHorseplayer for the afternoon. I won't be at Monmouth on opening weekend (May 14-15) and I probably won't be there over Memorial Day weekend either, so in addition to the contest, May 21 will be my chance to see the new and unimproved Monmouth Park.

(Starting on) May 28, Monmouth Park's Survival at the Shore

This is a fun game, though as with Publichandicapper,players will number well into four figures so I won't be banking on this thing punching my ticket to Vegas. I think I survived to about the final 200-300 two different years (including 2 years ago), but other years (including last year) I forgot to make my selections twice early in the meet and thus made an early exit.

This is a great poor man's contest as far as free entertainment and action -- when I was un(der)employed two summers ago I spent many a weekday afternoon watching $5K claiming races on my laptop, rooting for my selection to at least hit the board so I could live to see another day.

June 5, Monmouth-Woodbine Handicapping Challenge
There's not much information on this except that it costs $100, qualifies 1 for NHC and there are no subsequent contests at Monmouth scheduled until August 27 (ouch). I'll wait to hear further details but offhand this sounds like something I would partake in.

I would be interested in doing a $100 NHCQualify.com online contest on June 4, 11, or 18, but round 2 is on June 25, which just so happens to coincide with...

June 25-26, Belmont Handicapping Challenge
This what I'm talkin' about. $400, two-day event, and most definitely deeper waters, as dudes fly in from Chicago and L.A. for this thing. I crossed state lines for the first time last year and played this event as well as Aqueduct in the fall, finishing midpack each time. This year I really want to make some noise in at least 1 NYRA contest, if for no other reason than to prove to myself that I can ship out of town and win.

I'm looking forward to this contest even more since they restored LIRR service to Belmont. Last year I had to take LIRR to Queens Village and then stand on a corner with fellow unwashed degenerates, waiting for some godforsaken bus to take us to the track. To add insult to injury, the bus looked like a luxury coach job in the picture on the NYRA website, but in reality it was an old school bus with no air conditioning (or shocks, apparently)!
But I digress.

August 10-11, Saratoga contest
Same deal as the Belmont contest I believe, only this is on a Wed-Thu rather than Sat-Sun. I have a wedding to attend on Friday, so I'm thinking perhaps I'd take Wed-Fri off and go up to Saratoga for two days of hardcore contesting. Normally I probably wouldn't do this, but I am feeling a bit bold from being decently in the black so far this year, so what the hell, it could be a lot of fun.

August 27, Monmouth contest
If they do things the same way as in previous years this will be a $300 contest that sends 3 to Vegas. If I'm still alive perhaps I will partake.

Orleans or Bust?

2011-04-17T13:03:00.000-07:00

Naah, I won't be changing the name of my blog to this one either, though I did participate in a handicapping contest at the Meadowlands yesterday that qualified the winner for the 2012 Horseplayer World Series at the Orleans Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas. And damned if I didn't almost win it (I think).

After a nightmare NJ Transit trip from South Orange to Secaucus that involved a 1:20 delay and an evacuation to a "rescue" train, I arrived at the Big M at about half past two (thanks to William H. at NJHorseplayer dot com for signing me in). I won't bore you with a race-by-race recap but instead I'll pick up the action starting right before the Blue Grass at Keeneland, when I was down to $33 (from an initial $100), my only win having been a few bucks back on the chalky Aikenite in the Commonwealth.

I figured it was time to go all-in so I put $23W and $10P on Brilliant Speed. I can't claim I loved the horse on my own; instead, I got the idea from Dave P., a friend and former colleague who is a heavy race-replay watcher and whose handicapping opinions I respect. Dave P. liked Queen'splatekitten best in the Blue Grass, with Brilliant Speed and Sensational Slam as other horses of interest; to my credit (or, luckily), I tossed QPK because of the far outside post, and didn't like Sensational Slam, landing me on Brilliant Speed.

Brilliant Speed rallied from last to win a three-horse photo, jacking my bankroll up to $576 and putting me in 3rd place.

After a couple quick (and probably overly rambunctious) losing bets, I was down to $476 and in 4th or 5th or somesuch, and Oaklawn was the only contest track still going. I didn't touch the Arkansas Derby, leaving the OP finale as the day's last race, a three-turn dirt marathon for cheapie horses.

I took a very long look at 11-1 Muhaaseb but ultimately opined that the Asmussen chalk General Partner was a standout and plunked down $250W. 6-5 (7-5 when I bet) is a crummy absolute price in a full field, but I just thought General Partner was the race's most likely winner by a substantial margin. Anyway, the horse had a very decent trip, rallied around the 3rd turn and drew clear in the stretch, only to be collared late by a longshot I didn't like at all. I finished with $226 bankroll, good for 7th place and $399 prize money.

A General Partner victory would have won me $300, giving me a final bankroll of $776. Of course I can't be sure who everyone else bet on that last race so this exercise is conjecture, but based on the lack of movement I saw in the bankrolls of the top 5 players right before the last race (when my bankroll had dropped by the outlay of my pending bet), I suspect most or all of my rivals either didn't bet the last race or bet a smaller amount, so $776 could well have taken down the whole thing.

So while my $425 net profit on the day was nothing to write home about, it will fund a future event or two, and yesterday was a good contest experience. I would guess that 6-5 Asmussen horses with 2 1/2-length leads in the stretch win probably 80-90% of the time -- I was just on the wrong end of the percentages.

Lady Luck, Why Dost Thou Abandoneth Me (or Something)?

2011-04-09T18:03:00.001-07:00

I reverted back to my losing ways in today's Simulcast Series Challenge Finals at Monmouth Park, racking up an 0-for-9 and finishing tied for last with a $0 finishing bankroll. The not-so-happy (and somewhat abbreviated) recap:

Bet #1, 2Tam, $20W Joshua Jet Fuel, 7-1. Finished 8th of 9, comment line of "no factor" says it all. Starting bankroll of $200 down to $180.

Bet #2, 3Tam, $20W Miss Ten Oaks, 6-1. "Trailed" comment line says it all. Bankroll: $160.

Bet #3, 5Tam, $20W Turbo Compressor, 9-2. There was a decent little odds bounce here, as my horse started at about 7-5 before drifting up to a price that I thought offered decent relative value to an overbet 4-5 favorite.

This horse was definitely live, but unfortunately it was the first (and worst) of three bum rides I got over the course of the afternoon, as apprentice Jose Alvarez got absolutely owned by Paco Lopez. Running second on the backstretch, Alvarez should have locked into the 2-path, but instead he let Lopez (on the chalk) come up from the inside and seize the 2-path, which resulted in my horse being fanned wide on the turn and then, predictably, losing the stretch duel. *%#@! Bankroll: $140.

Bet #4: 6Tam, $20W Wild Mia, 2-1. The absolute price was low but I thought there was some relative juice here versus the 2-5 chalk. Leandro Goncalves is a big gun at Tampa but I question his decision to not go to the lead in this paceless affair, instead getting boxed in and then fanned wide (again by P. Lopez) and falling a length short of the chalk. Bankroll: $120.

The arrival of NJHorseplayer dot com (and son) around this time was a welcome change of pace to the afternoon, though unfortunately even a ceremonial granting of a lucky penny by NJHorseplayer dot com Jr. would not change my luck on this day.

Bet #5: 7Tam, $20W Be My Candy, 7-1. Finished 4th, "failed to sustain bid." Bankroll: $100. I don't really remember this bet well, oddly enough -- maybe NJ Horseplayer dot com was distracting me with his inane yammering about the latest Dancing With the Stars. At any rate, this is beginning to suck.

Bet #6: 8Tam, $20W I'm Steppin' It Up, 10-1. "Rider broke awkwardly" and then never got involved, finished 8th of 11. Bankroll: $80.

Bet #7: 8Aqu, $20W Justin Phillip, 5-1. Ran an OK 3rd but was no real threat. Bankroll: $60. Really getting back on my heels here.

Bet #8: 9Aqu, $20W Laysh Laysh Laysh, 6-1. I thought this closer in a speedy field had an upset chance, but when he missed the break that was all she wrote. Bankroll: $40.

Bet #9: 11Tam, $40W Royal Hill, 10-1. I wanted to get back into contention in a meaningful way so I went all-in. I hated the even-money favorite in here and damned if Royal Hill wasn't live, stalking the speed and then drawing alongside or even ahead at the top of the lane, only to be outfinished, a neck short.

This was the last of the day's bad rides as I saw it, as Ricardo Feliciano (I'm not familiar with the guy but he showed an OK win %) had some kind of weird bobbing and intermittent whipping down the stretch, while it seemed Pablo Morales (on the 13-1 winner) was knuckling down with more of a straight drive. Admittedly I've never ridden a horse in a race so I can't say I know exactly how it works, but I have seen enough races in my lifetime to assert with some confidence that Morales got more out of his horse in the stretch than Feliciano got with his, and that may well have been the difference in the outcome. But alas, bankroll: $0. I stuck around a few more minutes to watch Uncle Mo get beat and I was out the door.

Analysis: It just wasn't my day, really. Despite going o-for-9 I think my handicapping was actually reasonable overall, as I had a few seconds with OK prices, plus a couple other seconds on horses I almost bet. And my contest strategy was OK too, though given I didn't have any winners on this day, strategy wasn't very relevant.
It was really luck that eluded me, as 5 of my 9 losing bets featured either a bad (or at least questionable) ride or a bad start. If even a couple of those don't happen, my day could have had a different complexion.
But, c'est la vie. In a bigger-picture sense, I cannot complain about luck. After all, I have now lost 42 of my last 46 live-contest races, spread out over five contest days dating back almost five months, yet I am ahead approx. $5K net over that time. How? Simply by virtue (or simply by dumb luck) of having my four winning bets occur on the same day. That, my friends, is a friendly random distribution.

Pre-SSC Finals Ponderings

2011-04-06T16:07:00.000-07:00

I'm quite looking forward to Saturday's Simulcast Series Invitational at Monmouth Park. Specs are 45 players, $200 live bankroll, and MP throws in $5K in total prize money to be divvied up among the top 5 finishers; most importantly, the top 2 finishers qualify for the 2012 DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship.

This will be my second consecutive trip to the invitational thingamabob. My experience last year was a wild one, in which I was down to my last bet and halfway out the door before I came roaring back with a 40-1 horse who I genuinely liked; I flattened out after that, though that sure wasn't for lack of trying as my wager in the last contest race was the biggest bet I ever made in my life, $500W on some 4-1 shot at Keeneland who didn't run a jump. I can only hope to have as good an at-the-buzzer look at the basket this Saturday.

I'm always pondering contest strategy, and while I'm fond of my default strategy (like a basketball team facing a tough opponent on the road, I scratch and claw to try to stay in the game until the last 2 minutes, when anything can happen), I would be a fool to not acknowledge that front-runners win contests too. In fact, just three weeks ago Ken Orchard took Simulcast Series Challenge #3 by virtue of an early bet; similarly, the guy in last year's final had like $2,400 by like 2:30 p.m. and went on to win.

What does this mean for me? Well, I think I have to be flexible and adjust on the fly if need be, rather than slavishly following my come-from behind strategy. If I'm ga-ga over some 10-1 shot at 2 p.m., I gotta consider staking my day on it, as the worst outcome would be winning a small bet on such a 10-1 shot early and then proceeding to lose on other horses I like less. I guess the real trick/difficulty/challenge here is properly identifying whether or not I am ga-ga about a given horse (easier said than done of course) -- one of the many points of nuance, analysis and decision-making that make handicapping contests so much fun.

In closing I would like to shout out kudos to Monmouth Park for another well-run winter contest series. I've been playing in these things for 5-6 years now and they're always well-run affairs, the venue is comfortable and the tenor is competitive yet fun. My one quibble has to do with post-event reporting, as Monmouth doesn't post the winners from a Saturday contest until Wednesday, which is really lame-o-rama in this day and age, and only the top 10 finishers are posted. NYRA posts full standings for its contests by 7 or 8 p.m. on the same day, i.e. a couple hours after the last race is official. I think Monmouth should do the same.

Enough complaining, onto Saturday...

Treasure Island or Bust? Naah...

2011-03-31T17:33:00.000-07:00

Earlier this week I was jolted by the news that the DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship is moving its act from Red Rock Casino Resort to Treasure Island. This is effective immediately, i.e. for the January 2012 NHC, which will just so happen to coincide with my (planned) first NHC appearance.

What!??!?!? After all the work I've done in creating and building up the Red Rock or Bust blog, they go and change the name without even consulting me? So I proceeded to sink into a deep depression, emerging from my darkened, shades-drawn bedroom only for a sandwich run over to the Big M for delipalooza, where I ran into NJHorseplayer dot com.

After that pick-me-up I pondered my options and proceeded to conduct exhaustive market research and focus groups regarding Red Rock or Bust. I was pleased to learn that my blog has built such a strong name-brand value that it transcends the name brand of the NHC, and even the NTRA and DRF themselves! So I have decided to stand pat.

(Actually I'm just too lazy to change the name of my blog, but I thought it would be fun to tell this tall tale.)

Whad up wit dat? The future of Monmouth Park (Part II)

2011-03-27T15:28:00.000-07:00

Is it me or is there a disconnect between reality and Monmouth Park's posted racing dates?

Earlier this weekend I caught this interview of Jeff Gural, the prospective white knight of the Meadowlands. I was impressed by the dude -- seems like he knows his stuff, he is ready to make sweeping changes at the Big M, and at the same time he came across as very realistic and pragmatic about the whole situation (I was struck by his "I don't mind losing $10 or $12 million for 18 or 19 months" quote). Gural has been in the picture for about three and a half months from what I understand, he has arranged $100 million funding, and he is now in the nitty-gritty phase of dealing with the unions.

So, sounds pretty far along and promising, and they're still saying best-case scenario is for racing to resume at the Big M by June or July.

Meanwhile, Monmouth Park is still soliciting bids through the end of the month, "prior to the due diligence process"! And Monmouth is planning to open its meet on Saturday, May 14?

What happens if all bidders (eight so far, from what I have read) decide to not move forward beyond their initial interest? What if the erstwhile bidder isn't qualified or cannot reach agreement? What if something falls apart during due diligence? Even let's say best case, something moves forward, how long will due diligence take? Monmouth Park ain't no lemonade stand -- any entity considering sinking millions into the track and operating it for a five-year period is going to want to make sure everything is right.

Add it all up and unless I'm missing something here, simulcast signals will be the only racing seen and heard at Monmouth Park on May 14. I suspect there will be some semblance of a Monmouth meet this year, but I'd guess it will some abbreviated job, perhaps starting around July 4 or maybe even a few-week deal centered around the Haskell.

Maybe I'm just Gloomy Gus, but I think no live racing at Monmouth this year is a more likely outcome than starting on May 14.

It Was a Very Good Day

2011-03-20T14:57:00.000-07:00

Proving that reports of my demise as a competitive handicapping contest player were greatly exaggerated, I placed 2nd of 262 in yesterday's Simulcast Series Challenge #3 at Monmouth Park.

The wager-by-wager recap:

1. GP1, $5WP Vini Vidi Vinci. I thought Brad's Kitten was a bad even-money favorite, plus trainer Tammy Domenosky had won within the previous day or two, so the trainer recency angle was a factor. But apparently the Latin translation of Vini Vidi Vinci is "I came, I saw, I didn't lift a hoof." $100 starting bankroll down to $90.

2. Tam5, $10WP Who is Lady. Trainer-recency angle plus odds-bounce angle at work here, as Derek Ryan had recently won and Who Is Lady took substantial early money before drifting up to 9-1, near her ML. I figured the double angle warranted a double bet, and lo and behold WIL went to the front and held on, ending my 26-race schneid in live contests. Bankroll: $209.

3. Tam7, $10W Doctor Carina. The 6-5 chalk looked vulnerable to me, and 9-2 seemed like a reasonable price to speculate that trainer Thomas Proctor would have Doctor Carina ready to run off a long layoff. But as they say, even the best laid plans of mice and men go awry: chalk wins, DC does nothing. Bankroll: $199.

4. GP7, $10W Mongoose Gold. Another Tammy Domenosky horse -- this was pretty dicey but at 20-1, I thought it was worth a shot. No dice. Bankroll: $189. (Aside: Domenosky won a later race with a 6-1 horse, but I had given up on her by then and passed.)

5. Tam7, $20W Doubles Partner. I usually turn up my nose at 2-1 horses, especially in 10-horse fields, but this Todd Pletcher horse looked like a standout to me. Julien Leparoux gave me more anxious moments than one should have with a solid chalk, but he does have impeccable timing and ice water in his veins, as he managed to get up by a neck in a blanket finish. Bankroll: $235.

6. GP8, $20W Sligovitz. I had a hunch this horse was live at 10-1, and sure enough he was, though due to a wide trip and a bland ride by an over-the-hill Edgar Prado he only managed 2nd. "Shoulda" done a WP bet on this rather than just straight W. Bankroll: $215.

7. Tam8, $10W Bay of Wicklow. Crazy odds bounce on this one, as he was 1-1 in the first click I saw before drifting (and drifting and drifting) up to 27-1 (!). Alas, he ran like a 27-1 shot (dead last). Bankroll: $205.

8. Aqu9, $10W Roman Treasure. This Hushion-Hill horse looked like the speed of the speed, and I thought he was decent value at 5-1. But he had to duel early and faded to 4th. Bankroll: $195.

9. 11Tam, $50W$20P Nehalennia. I had seen Graham Motion win with so-so looking horses off layoffs too many times in my day to pass on this one at double-digit odds (went off at 17-1). I dug this horse a bunch, and she validated by faith by running a nice second. Bummer that I missed the win, but I was glad I got a few shekels back and very glad I scaled back from my original bet of $100W. Bankroll: $277, and it was now crunch time with just 3 contest races left.

10. 10Aqu, $70W Missysmoonlitmagic. Thought the 2-5 Linda Rice chalk was worth a bet-against, so I landed on Missys -- more of a hunch play than anything else really. She ran a creditable 3rd, but that didn't do me any favors. Bankroll: $207.

11. 12Tam, $50W Double Revival. I saw a trainer recency angle with Anthony Pecoraro in this bottom-basement race, and 16-1 was plenty of price. But trainer recency, trainer schmecency I guess, as Double Revival ran a non-threatening 5th. Bankroll: $157.

12. 11GP, $150W Rules of Honor. In 16th place with one bullet left, it was time to hang some fire, and lo and behold Rules of Honor came though at 9-2. This race went off while 12Tam was still going, so things were a bit frenetic, but once I saw Double Revival spinning his wheels I turned my attention to GP, where I was thrilled to see Kent (The Kid) Desormeaux work out a nice trouble-free, ground-saving trip, swing wide into the lane and win fairly easily. Final bankroll: $862, good for 2nd place.

Analysis
Everything went right for me in this contest, really. I believe to do well in any given contest you need to have at least some measure of three things on your side: good race handicapping, savvy contest strategy, and Lady Luck.

I picked some live horses over the course of the afternoon, so check on good race handicapping. I was 4-for-12 in my bets (though one winner was just 2-1 and another was just the P of a WP bet), a .333 batting average I will take any day. And I did everything right with regard to executing my contest strategy: I was patient, I kept the total number of my bets down, I allocated the capital I had late in the afternoon to maximize my number of swings (I got three good swings out of $277), and I was not afraid to lose.

And I am the first to admit that I got freaking lucky with Rules of Honor. I didn't especially like him -- he was reasonably plausible, but at just 9-2 in an 11-horse field, he wasnt a big value play by any means. In fact, when there were three contest races left, I even said aloud to NJ Horseplayer dot com that I was thinking of betting the Aqueduct and Tampa finales, but not Gulfstream -- that was how tepidly I felt about the race. But when my Aqu and Tam shots failed, I needed to do something at GP -- I looked up at the screen and saw Rules of Honor warming up and I thought damn he looks good. So with that five-second body language read and a just-decent-enough price, I went all in.

I was very gratified with the result, but I'm not getting too high/full of myself about it, just like I tried to not get too down and discouraged about my recent drought. I'm not as good as I was yesterday, and I'm not as bad as 0-26; I'm somewhere in between with plenty of room for improvement.

One More Try

2011-03-18T17:55:00.000-07:00

I'll take a crack at the Simulcast Series Challenge #3 tomorrow at Monmouth Park. This is the 3rd of Monmouth's three winter contests. I busted in the previous two, so I need to finish in the top 15 in this event (much easier said than done) to advance to the SSC Invitational in three weeks.

Few observations:

-I am in a hideous live-contest slump. I went 0-7 in SSC#2 and 0-8 in SSC#3. Throw in an 0-10 day on day two of the two-day contest at Aqueduct in November, and I am on an 0-25 schneid in live contests. I mean, come on man, this is getting ridiculous.

-It was stupid busy at work this week and I have done essentially nil preparation. I will need some luck tomorrow to make any noise, because I sure won't win this thing by being more prepared than the next guy.

-If I don't advance, this will probably be my last live contest until the summer.

-I imagine I'll table up with William H. at NJHorseplayer dot com.

Oh, Fiddlesticks

2011-03-13T17:41:00.000-07:00

I finished 81st of 300 in today's NHCQualify event with a $49 bankroll, $24 short of the $73 that was needed to crack the top 30.

Chillin Dylan ($18.80, $7.60) in Tam6 was my only winner, which was early in the day. I had two chalky and one decently priced place finishers later in the afternoon that kept me on the fringe of contention, though I always needed another pricey winner to get me over the hump and the racing gods just didn't deliver.

My best bet of the day was Holidaysatthefarm at 9-1 in the Gulfstream feach. Loved that play, loved that play, loved that play -- would make that same selection if they ran the race over. However, she got a horrible trip, steadied pretty significantly going into the first turn and that was it. C'est la vie, though I will put her on my watch list.

The one potential regret I have was in the penultimate contest event, Oaklawn's 8th race. I went with the chalk, Pretty Heiress, as I was just hoping to add a few bucks and find a price in the last race to catapult me into the top 30. Pretty Heiress came in third, which I don't really care about, but the $38 winner Mi Tatiana was definitely playable, in retrospect.

I don't follow Oaklawn worth a hoot, and as I said in this recent post, when I don't follow the races closely I tend to rely on certain shortcut angles. One of these angles is paying special attention to trainers who have won in the past 24-48 hours.

Anyway, Mi Tatiana is trained by Allen Milligan....who also happens to train Custer County, who won Oaklawn's 6th race at 7-1 less than an hour earlier. And Milligan won the 5th race with a chalk as well.

Ouch.

I did note that Milligan won the 6th race while I was looking at the 8th race, so I didn't miss Mi Tatiana, I just chose not to play it. And I wouldn't go as far as to say I definitely should have played, it either -- like any angle in racing, sometimes my trainer thingamajig works, and sometimes it don't.

But at 18-1, I'm kind of thinking I should have went with it.

Big Contest Week Ahead

2011-03-11T16:45:00.000-08:00

I'm heading into an unusual two-contests-in-one-week horizontal strip of the calendar, as I'll be playing the NHCQualify online event tomorrow (Sunday, March 13) and then the live Simulcast Series Challenge #3 at Monmouth Park on Saturday, March 19.

First things first -- tomorrow's NHCq. Specs are $100 ante, 300 players, top 30 move on to the second round. I haven't played one of these things in almost two years, when I finished a piss-poor 236th of 298.

I need to study some Gulfstream, Tampa, and Oaklawn races by tomorrow afternoon, that's for sure. I don't think there is a whole lot to say about contest strategy in this affair, as the races are picked for you (Tam 5, 6, 8; OP 6, 7, 8; and GP 6, 8, 10, 11), as is the wager amount ($2WP notional). So my main strategy will be to pick some dang winners and placers!

I do think there are a few strategy nuances worth mentioning:

(1) I'm not thinking of any target I need to hit, i.e. $60 or $70 on the day. I'm just gonna evaluate each race one at a time and try to figure out which horse offers the best value in that particular heat.
(2) I strongly believe that the 10-1 and 15-1 horses in the last few races are crowded trades, as many players in also-ran land try to catapult themselves into the top 30. Conversely, I suspect that 10-1 and 15-1 horses in the first couple races are comparatively underplayed, as many players who plan or hope to have many winners on the day try to put some early points on the board with safer selections. So I'm thinking I'm going to give the 10/15-1 shots a little extra consideration in early races, and lean slightly against those same price plays later in the day.
(3) I also believe that contestants who are off the board start looking for bombers too quickly, say maybe around races 5 or 6, when they don't necessarily need to do so at that still-early juncture. So I'm gonna try to keep that in mind and lean towards the more likely placer, rather than the more attractive price, at about that point in the contest.

Anyway all that mumbo-jumbo plus $1 gets me a small coffee at Blimpies if I fail to pick any winners. But I do think following that strategy stuff could mean the difference between say, 25th place and 40th place if I make some decent picks.

NHC Tour Online Challenge today

2011-03-06T11:13:00.000-08:00

I tossed my hat in the ring for today's NHC Tour Online Challenge. The good news is, the contest qualifies the top 4 finishers for the 2012 National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas next January. The bad news is, there will probably be about 2,000 participant's in today's free-for-all, so needless to say you will need a ton a luck to avoid being one of the ~1,996 also-rans.

I haven't followed Sam Houston, Oaklawn or Fair Grounds (three of the today's four contest tracks) one iota this year, so I can't say I have any edge over the next guy. Therefore, I peg my chances of success today at the Joe Mean probability of 4/2,000, or 0.2%.

All that said, my picks are as follows:

Race 1 / (1) Hero's Empire
Race 2 / (5) Why Not Be Perfect
Race 3 / (4) Erma Lee
Race 4 / (4) Ready to Thrill
Race 5 / (5) Harrie
Race 6 / (5) Ms. Short Pockets
Race 7 / (2) Stormy Publisher (ARG)
Race 8 / (8) Silver Senor
Race 9 / (4) Raven
Race 10 / (10) Goldenbulletday

Whad up wit dat? The future of Monmouth Park

2011-03-04T13:18:00.000-08:00

We interrupt this regularly scheduled handicapping contest blog to shout out "whad up wit dat" regarding the future of Monmouth Park.

NJ.com reported that the powers-that-be are looking for a lessee for Monmouth Park, but only if they run 141 days. In other words, sure you can come in and run the track, but only if you return to the pre-2010 model that the track itself acknowledged wasn't working: modest purses that barely keep up with slots-fueled competition elsewhere in the mid-Atlantic, tired five-horse fields running in front of 3,000 people on summer weekdays, tumbleweed after Labor Day, etc. Blech.

And I reckon a 141-day meet would be even worse than 2009. How could anyone get excited for ~$325,000 in daily purses after they were one mil last summer? Hamburger Helper isn't terrible thing by itself, but when you go from Hamburger Helper to a real burger back to Hamburger Helper...ugh. Plus, NYRA is on the upswing with its slots thingamajig coming up, so wave goodbye to Todd Pletcher's 'A' and 'B' teams and to John Velazquez and Garrett Gomez, say hello to Pletcher's 'C' team and Felix Ortiz and Luis Rivera.

Unless I'm missing something here, good luck in finding a lessee who will sign on with the 141-day stipulation.

Would you lease a retail store if you had to stay open 16 hours a day in February?

Would you lease a boardwalk concession stand if you had to stay open until November?

Would you lease a church if you had to hold service on Tuesday afternoons?

(OK that last one doesn't really make sense, but it's been a long week, cut me some slack.)

You get the point.

I think the horsemen who are now saying a 141-day meet is "etched in stone" will be ready to compromise if and when there are no qualified bids and they are faced with a 0-day meet.

And now back to our regularly scheduled handicapping contest blog.

Recap of a Shitty Afternoon

2011-02-27T05:19:00.000-08:00

I started with a $100 bankroll, as did the other 278 contestants.

Wager #1: GP2, $10W on Evening Gown. I felt compelled to play this turf race as the even-money favorite was ridden by a low-percentage apprentice and hence a screaming bet-against. While I was right on that premise and I Dreamt I Was finished off the board, I was dead wrong in who I landed on.
Evening Gown had run poorly in her one previous turf start but then had been put on the shelf/freshened for yesterday's race. Even though she was by Stephen Got Even -- not at all a strong turf sire -- I thought at 9-1 it was a decent speculation that her poor turf race was attributable to her form tailing off in general and a need for freshening rather than just being lousy on the turf. Apparently I was wrong, as she ran mid-pack for about half the race, then backed up and finished last. Bankroll: $90.

Wager #2: GP3, $10W on McPeek entry (Private Prize/Washington's Rules). In a short field, I thought the 5-2 price was reasonable relative value being it was actually the fourth choice in a field of five betting interests. Private Prize went to the lead and weakened late, Washington's Rules was at the back and made up some ground, but at the wire they were 3rd and 4th, so no dice. Bankroll: $80.
In retrospect, this was not the best bet I ever made. The relative price was OK, but the absolute price was low, and while I thought the entry had a decent chance to win, I wasn't convinced. I should have passed on this one (though it ended up not making a difference).

Wager #3: GP5, $10W on Bigshot. This turf marathon looked pretty paceless so I thought Bigshot had a big shot as he had some tactical speed and an inside post position. However he never really did anything, saving ground and running midpack throughout in an uneventful trip. Bankroll: $70. Meh.

Wager #4: Tam6, $10W on Arts and Leisure. This was a Brad Thomas pick in a Tampa cheapie race that most likely I wouldn't have even looked at otherwise, and it was live. Arts and Leisure set a pressured pace and shook clear in early stretch at 9-1, but he weakened late and finished 3rd, a half-length and a head back. Bankroll is down to $60.

Wager #5: GP6, $10W on Point of Entry. This was a another Thomas pick, one who I may have liked on my own, as his 6-1 price was decent and I thought the 3-5 Pletcher chalk was overbet. But alas, the chalk made an easy lead -- Point of Entry came running late but could only get second, a length and change short. Bankroll: $50.
This is beginning to suck.

Wager #6: GP7, $20W on Dean's Kitten. Turns out this one was my best bet of the day. I am familiar with Dean's Kitten from when I covered the BC Juvie Turf crop for NTRA back in the fall of '09; he's not a great horse and was definitely a notch below Paddy O'Prado, Interactif and the others from his crop, but he is solid enough. On Saturday I liked that he was going up against a comparatively softer field and he was cutting back in distance and figured to improve off his last race. And I liked his 9-1 price.
Anyway, D's K got a nice enough ground-saving trip and around the far turn Alan Garcia looked like he had plenty of horse, but he just never found room in the stretch. Started inside, tried to shift outside, then back inside -- I estimate Garcia asked the horse maybe 20% what he could have asked with a clear run. And he still gained in the stretch to only finish three heads and 3/4 length back in a blanket finish. This was a pisser, as in my view he was the best horse in the race and would have won had Garcia found even a sliver of daylight. Bankroll: $30.

Wager #7: GP9, $30W on Black N Beauty. At this point, with a meager $30 bankroll and the leaderboard guys (and gals, perhaps) in the $200-$800 range, I figured it was futile to keep betting $10 per race, it was time for a win-or-go-home wager. I wasn't cuckoo crazy over Black N Beauty, but she looked interesting enough as a possible stalker in a speed-filled race, and 8-1 was good enough for me. But appropriately for me on this day, Black N Beauty steadied at the start, was last early and then pulled up. I don't know WTF happened, but I do know after the race I was out the door with a $0 bankroll.

A few parting observations on the day:
- Congrats to Monmouth Park and the NHC people for boosting interest in these things. I had to wait in a 10-person line to sign up (never seen that before), there were 279 participants (most I recall for a winter event), and I even saw a smattering of 20-something dudes (did they take a wrong turn on their way to a poker tourney or something?).
-My live-contest race schneid now stands at 25 (!) races, spanning three live contests I've player over the past 3 1/2 months. How about that!
-I'm generally pretty good about getting over these things quickly. After all, it ain't easy -- only the top ~5% of yesterday's contestants move on to the April invitational contest. But still, I can't help but stew about it for a little while, say 24-48 hours or so.

As Pat Riley said, there is winning, and there is misery.

T-minus...

2011-02-24T18:03:00.000-08:00

...approximately 36 hours until I'm up an' at 'em for the Simulcast Series Challenge #2 at Monmouth Park this Saturday. I'm quite looking forward to it, especially as it's been six weeks since the last contest, more than the typical four weeks between winter contests.

A few musings:

1. As far as preparation, I'm pretty much gonna be winging it. As I have said before, I am 100% convinced there is real value in really being prepared for a race card; however, being really prepared entails stuff like following the track(s) on at least a semi-regular basis, watching lots of replays, and having a few watch-listed horses entered to run. So being that I haven't been following the races much at all, I have no chance of being really prepared for Saturday; my only chance is to reach a half-assed level of preparation, which involves scanning the PPs on the trains to and from work and maybe watching a few select replays. From my experience, half-assed preparation is only marginally better than no preparation, so I'm thinking why bother.

It's like the SATs -- if it's the Thursday night before your Saturday exam and you haven't methodically studied for a period of several months, or at least weeks, is cramming gonna help you much? Not bloody likely.

Plus, the printer at work is busted so I cannot use company ink for gambling purposes, always a fun pre-contest ritual of mine.

2. Eff Tampa. The contest tracks are Gulfstream, Aqueduct, and Tampa; I plan on focusing on GP, dabbling in Aqueduct, and maybe playing at most a race or two at Tampa. I'm aiming to bet just the minimum 10 races over the course of the day, 11-12 at most if I'm still in contention late. There will be plenty of GP and Aqu races to look at, so following Tampa too would just spread my brainpower too thin (and plus flipping between three channels all afternoon rather than two is a pain in the ass).

3. I'll try to stick with my strategy of playing the role of an NBA team going up against a tough opponent on the road: stay in the game long enough so you have with a chance to make some shots, get some stops and win in the final two minutes. For contest purposes, this means be patient, bet mostly minimum-size type bets and hope I have a couple winners and a bankroll of maybe ~$150 (up from starting bankroll of $100) at 4:30 p.m. At that point, think about where I'm gonna take some real shots to give me a chance to hit the board.

At any rate, it should be fun one way or the other.

Lying in wait

2011-02-11T18:40:00.000-08:00

There hasn't been much going on for this NHC aspirant but I thought I'd at least check in with a few words so people know I'm still alive.

I toyed with the idea of playing a $100 NHCQualify online contest this month (Round 1 contests are Feb. 5, 12, and 19), but given that the Feb. 26 Round 2 coincides with the Monmouth Park live contest, I'm gonna pass. I'm definitely doing the Monmouth event and I just didn't like the idea of possibly playing 2 contests in the same day -- I enjoy handicapping contests quite a bit, and I find one is plenty to concentrate on, I suspect two would be dilutive to my enjoyment. Plus, there will be plenty more contest opportunities in coming months.

So Monmouth Feb. 26 is next, followed by an online NHC Tour freebie on Feb. 27 and then Monmouth again on March 19.

I haven't really been following the horses much at all though, so I'll have to figure out whether I want to do some serious research to try to get up to speed before Feb. 26, or just go in cold.

So (YAWN!) this is all kind of boring, I know. I do have a decent idea for a blog post, I'll have to work on that and hopefully post next week.

What is My Edge?

2011-01-30T16:44:00.000-08:00

I went to Monmouth Park a couple times early last summer. I stayed for full cards and I watched the toteboard, post parade and races closely.

From those couple days I came away with a three-horse watchlist: Lucky Evening, who took early money in his debut for no apparent reason and made a decent rail rally to finish midpack; Bella D'Oro, who had some sort of jock/equipment issue for a few strides out of the gate and lost all chance; and Farmer Jones, who took early money in his debut but then acted up before loading in the gate and didn't do much running at all.
Bella D'Oro and Farmer Jones came back to each run solid seconds at about 10-1 or 12-1, and then subsequently win at chalky odds. Lucky Evening didn't pan out at all, and last I saw he was running for $5K at Penn National.

My point is not to rehash specifics about those eight-month-old races or to say I'm still looking out for the horses to run back; rather, my point is that I believe my analysis of those race days gave me some live horses to come back with (as Meat Loaf sang, two out of three ain't bad). In other words, my analysis gave me an edge.

Having an edge is absolutely critical for a horseplayer to have any chance of making money or even breaking even on a consistent basis in this high-takeout game. Having an edge also means everything in determining success in handicapping contests, in which the waters are deep and competition is stiff.

I think all successful handicapping contest players have some sort of an edge. Hesham Regab, who won the Aqueduct handicapping contest in November, cited horse physicality. Tom Noone, who won the 2010 NHC Tour, said parsing race conditions is a big value-add. And 2011 DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship winner John Doyle is a professional horseplayer, so it's reasonable to assume he has an edge somewhere.

So in this winter of my discontent (and amid a vicious 0-for-18 schneid in handicapping contest races spanning two live days, Nov. 14 and Jan. 15), I have been pondering an existential question: what is my edge?

As evidenced by my opening anecdote, I truly believe I am good at ferreting out important pieces of information by closely watching the toteboard, post parade and the races. And when I say information, I'm talking stuff that others don't see and that doesn't show up in the PPs.

However, I do not follow the races anywhere close to regularly enough for this to be a consistent edge, so the best I can do here is catch-as-catch-can and try to find stuff here and there.

In the absence of a steady pipeline of watchlist horses, I often fall back on angles, or shortcuts. A few of these angles are:

1. In certain situations, when a horse takes early money inexplicably and then drifts up to near its morning line odds.
2. Following lower-profile trainers who have won or come close in the previous 24-48 hours.
3. Extrapolating subtly bad trips in the absence of watching replays, e.g. if a horse had an outside post in a turf race and ran just a few lengths behind a slow pace for much of the race.

As is the case with any angle in horse racing, sometimes these work and sometimes they don't. But I think angles such as these are the next best thing to having a legitimate, hard-earned edge based on following the races closely and consistently over time.

Inauspicious '11 debut

2011-01-16T09:43:00.000-08:00

I tried my luck in yesterday's Simulcast Series Challenge #1 at Monmouth Park, and ouch-a-mundo! I went 0-for-8, and nuked my $100 starting bankroll with seven $10 bets and one $30 bet.

I should have known it wasn't my day when I seriously considered plunking $10 on Mighty Score in Gulfstream's 2nd race, ultimately didn't pull the trigger, and proceeded to watch him score at 8-1. When I did start to bet, of course I lost -- Jambonied did nothing at 7-1 in GP3, as did Smart Tori at 8-1 in GP4; 6-1 Break Up the Game was too little too late in GP5; and Cristobal didn't pick up his feet at 24-1 in GP6. Throw in a few losers at Aqu and Tam and I was down to $30 late in the day; I decided my only hope was a last-three-races parlay at Gulfstream, so I put my $30 on 3-1 Sr. Henry in GP8 and was out the door when his late rally came up short.

When handicapping fails as it did yesterday, contest strategy becomes essentially irrelevant, so there's nothing to yak about on that front. It's akin to a football team that can't get a first down.

No big deal all-in-all, these kind of days happen to even the best handicappers (my compatriot at NJHorseplayer.com crapped out with just one winner yesterday)-- the challenge is to minimize their frequency. Onward and upward.

Push/Pull

2011-01-12T16:34:00.000-08:00

In my view, much of what determines success or failure in handicapping contests comes down to the delicate balance between boldness and conservatism. The push and the pull.

The ultimate aggressive move would be laying down your entire bankroll on a price play in the first contest race. The ultimate in conservatism would be making minimum-bet plays on favorites throughout the card. The first approach could win you a contest once in a blue moon, but most days it would have you broke and out the door at 1:05 p.m. The second tack could have you on the fringe of contention sometimes, and likely would get you at least some of your bankroll back at the end of real-money contests, but realistically it would never win you anything.

Of course, neither of those strategies is optimal; like most things in life, the way, the truth, and the light lie somewhere in between.

I've had a number of contest also-ran finishes over the years that I attribute at least partly to being overly aggressive -- either making a big bet early on or too quickly squandering a leaderboard position with substantial bets. I don't recall ever kicking myself afterwards for being too conservative, which I believe would sting more than being too bold.

But the challenge, and the beauty, of finding the sweet spot on the safety-risk spectrum is that it is a moving target, and you don't know where the sweet spot was until after the Official sign lights on the toteboard after the final contest race. If the chalk won a bunch of races on a given day, conservatism was rewarded, whereas risk takers won if there were prices. Similarly, you don't know which of your selections will win beforehand, so having only $10 on that 15-1 winner looks pretty pansy-ass at the end of a losing day, while putting $150 on a 15-1 loser would probably seem foolish and overly risky in retrospect.

In my view, a contest player's best approach is to operate within a band of the safety-risk spectrum and be ready and willing to adjust on the fly. So say on a scale of 1-10, 1 is super conservative and 10 is as ballsy as you can get. I like to think I operate in about the 6-to-7.5 range on balance, and I'm willing to go anywhere from 1 (when capital preservation is needed) to 10 (when a Hail Mary is my only hope).

One application of this may come in this Saturday's Simulcast Series Challenge #1 at Monmouth Park. From what I understand the only rule change is that the top 15 finishers qualify for the invitational tourney in April, up from 10 last year. I think this may make many players a bit more conservative, simply because you don't got's to do as good to come in 15th place as you do 10th place. Based on that theory, I may decide to up my risk taking, because as Warren Buffett says, be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy.

But we'll see, it will be an on-the-fly call, and of course I have to pick some winners for any of this mumbo jumbo to matter a hill of beans.

No one wins 2010 NHC Tour!

2011-01-08T08:34:00.000-08:00

That was seriously how I read today's headline on ntra.com/nhctour.

I thought great, all tour entry fees from last year will be refunded and my $100 check is in the mail!

But upon closer inspection I realized the headline says "Noone Wins 2010 Tour", and it turns out that Noone is Tom Noone of Redondo Beach, California.

So congratulations to Tom.

I'm Number 1,251!

2011-01-02T18:31:00.000-08:00

I tied for 1,251st place in today's NHC Online Kickoff Challenge. I'm a little bummed because my goal was to crack the top 1,250, but hey what can you do.

But seriously, sing no sad songs, as I blogged yesterday I played in today's event only because it was free with the $45 NHC Tour membership, and hey someone had to win (and come in 2nd through 5th, which also qualified you for 2012 NHC).

Today's contest had 1,526 players, which is about double the size of last year's events. And because we're still very very early in the year and many people are still in holiday mode, I'd guess that field sizes will increase in subsequent contests. That's obviously good for the NHC Tour, but in my opinion it's not so good for individual players such as myself, because when the field size is very very big, chances of winning are very very small.

Anyway it's only Jan. 2, I have the whole year to kvetch so I'll stop there. I am looking forward to the live event at Monmouth Park on Jan. 15.

2011 Kickoff

2011-01-01T15:28:00.000-08:00

I am participating -- kind of -- in the 2011 NHC Online Kickoff Challenge, set for tomorrow, Sunday January 2.

I say "kind of" because I only scanned the PPs as the basis for my submitted picks, and most likely I will make no additional effort tomorrow beyond checking to see if any of my picks are early scratches.

My tepid interest can be attributed to a few factors:

(1) In general, I'm not a big fan of online contests. Not only do they lack the competitive 'feel' of live events, but many online events are so big that placing in them is akin to winning the lottery. Online contests often have ~800 participants, which means that a very very good day will most likely be not good enough, you need to have a transcendent day. I prefer contests where a very very good day is rewarded.

Don't get me wrong, online contests do send people to Vegas, so it's worth tossing my hat into the ring. Maybe one of these days my lottery number will come in.

(2) As a semi-regular, semi-serious horseplayer, I typically am in a dormant phase from around Breeders Cup to mid- to late-January or thereabouts. Being that I haven't really been following the sport, I'm kidding myself if I think I'm gonna jump in cold and add value in trying to pick a winner in the $5K claimer at Fair Grounds.

(3) NFL is on tomorrow. 'nuff said.

I've circled Saturday, Jan. 15 on my calendar for my first real contest endeavour of 2011. In the meantime, my picks tomorrow are as follows:

Race 1 / (2) Manchild
Race 2 / (10) La Belle Gabrielle
Race 3 / (3) Rightuplynn'salley
Race 4 / (9) Roaring Belle
Race 5 / (1) D'oro Princess
Race 6 / (5) Devil's Hammock
Race 7 / (8) Cajun Sky
Race 8 / (6) Devils Afleet
Race 9 / (3) Thunder Chop
Race 10 / (2) Matamor

Good luck!

Early Musings on 2011 NHC Tour

2010-12-30T07:50:00.000-08:00

I just signed up for the new (and improved?) 2011 NHC Tour. It will be my third year on the tour -- over the past two years I forked over a combined $200 and got back only one t-shirt. Yes, it was an expensive t-shirt.

I'm hoping the third time's a charm as far as qualifying for the National Handicapping Championship -- I definitely came the closest I've ever been in 2010, so perhaps a little better luck in '11 will put me over the hump.

The 2011 tour has been goosed -- the pot for the January 2012 event will increase to $2 million including a $1 million winner's share, up from $1.1 million and $500K for next month's contest. The field will rise to 500 contestants from 321, and the cost of joining the NHC Tour has been reduced from $100 to $45.

In a big-picture sense, I like to see the NTRA Tour expansion because it shows that the handicapping contest circuit is alive and well, even as the horse racing industry struggles mightily. This is no surprise to this NJ-based contest player: Monmouth Park contests have been consistently well-attended for years amid growing questions about that track's very survival, and the two NYRA events I played this summer sold out, with the full contest room and lines at the buffet providing a marked contrast to the tumbleweed blowing around the rest of the track.

However, more is not always better. I find that about 200 players in a handicapping contest is a sweet spot -- it's enough to make it interesting, very challenging, and potentially very lucrative, yet there aren't so many people that it feels like this funny commercial. And overall, the NHC Tour in recent years just felt like the right difficulty level in terms of making it to the Big Dance -- plenty challenging for full-timers, and super difficult for just a semi-regular weekend player like myself.

Going from 321 to 500 players is a huge increase, more than 50% in fact -- certainly it improves my chances to sneak in, and I hope the bigger NHC Tour is a success, but I also hope that the powers that be realize they may be fixing something that was not broken.

Another Year, Another Bust

2010-12-05T07:31:00.000-08:00

Despite a fair amount of attempts and some close calls, once again I did not qualify for the DRF/NTRA Handicapping Championship (cue the violins). So I will not be at the Red Rock in Las Vegas on the weekend of Jan. 28-29; being that this blog is named Red Rock or Bust, I must therefore declare an official state of bust.

I apologize for being a lazy @$&*! and not blogging much this year (that's an understatement). I have no excuse. But I will offer a brief 2010 recap here and I hope to be more active in 2011.

While I did not qualify for NHC, I did have a decent year on the contest circuit. The highlight was definitely placing 5th of 219 in a February handicapping contest at Monmouth Park, which got me to the April invitational, earned me some pin money for subsequent qualifying attempts, and restored faith in my ability to compete in these things.

I got a run for my money in the April invitational, when I was actually on my way to Las Vegas as of 5:30 p.m. -- the problem was that there were still about 45 minutes and 4 contest races left (I faded). Similarly, I was on my way to Vegas as of about 4:50 p.m. on the day of Monmouth's big contest in August, but again I couldn't close the deal.

Another highlight was taking my show on the road (outside NJ, that is) for the first time -- I participated in NYRA contests at Belmont in June and Aqueduct in November. I finished in mid-pack in both events; did better in the AQU affair, where I shoulda woulda coulda made some noise if a couple photos went my way (including a 24-1 capper at Churchill Downs who lost by a head).

All told I think I played nine live contests this year: four early in the year at Monmouth, three during Monmouth's live meet, plus the two NYRA affairs. I generated a very small net profit: +~ $1,700 in the Feb. contest and ~$200 in two other contests, minus the entry fees of the others. I did fail to qualify for NHC, but I can never complain about breaking even or better and having a lot of fun in the process.

Big picture, I still can't say conclusively that I'm any better than other contest players. I figger I'm played in about 35-40 contests over the past seven years approximately, and I've placed in the top 10 twice. Using a roughly average contest field size of 200, that means an average player has a 1-in-20 chance of placing in the top 10, which is about what I've shown. But I've yet to qualify for the NHC, which is the ultimate prize -- I'll trade a couple dozen off-the-board contest finishes over a few down years for one shot at NHC glory anytime.

At any rate, what's in store for 2011? Who knows. If I'm still above ground and solvent, I'll most likely be taking semi-regular shots to qualify for the 2012 NHC, starting with a Jan. 15 event at Monmouth Park. There are changes afoot for the Big Dance, including a bigger pot, a significantly expanded field and a different dues structure for the NHC Tour. Regarding the blog, I hope to be more active, and may also collaborate in some manner with bitter NHC Tour rival William H.

Happy Holidays!

Mid-pack finish

2010-06-28T17:39:00.000-07:00

I tried my luck at the Belmont Park handicapping contest this past weekend. Fairly serious stuff -- two days, $400 ante, top 3 qualify for Vegas. $40K to the winner, pretty good prizes for the top 10, but then just $600-$700 for 11-20, and everyone from 21st place on down (out of 221 contestants) busts completely. So, this contest is not for the very casual player nor for the faint of heart.

Long story short, I schlepped out from Essex County NJ to Long Island in the heat both days. It was a fun time and a good experience overall but I managed only a midpack finish -- one 5-1 winner (from 10 bets) on Saturday, one 6-1 winner (also from 10 bets) on Sunday. I was in 115th place after Saturday and finished in 116th place (how's that for consistent)! It was a thoroughly midpack finish, my comment line would probably be something like "evenly" or "no threat".

My best shot on Sunday was Farmer Jones,a 13-1 second time starter at Monmouth who had taken early money in his debut then acted up in the gate and didn't do anything. I put my big bet ($40) on him, he had a nice trip and came running late to overtake the 2-5 Pletcher chalk...but the only problem was that a 10-1 speed horse in front of me had forgotten to stop, so my horse only got second.

Had I won that (it was 3 lengths, not close, but still a nice pick) I would have finished in about 15th. Say I got Farmer Jones plus another 5-1 winner, I'm in the top 10; Farmer Jones plus another 5-1 winner plus a 6-1 winner, and I'm in the top 5. Now I know all that mumbo jumbo plus $2.75 gets me a transfer from Hoboken to New York on New Jersey Transit, I'm not saying I should have taken down the contest. Rather, my point is that there's not all that much difference between going 2-for-20 in bets (which I did, and got me home with lint in my pockets) versus going 5-for-20 (which could have earned me a nice check and sent me to Vegas).

At any rate, I live to fight another day.

Back in Action

2010-06-21T17:29:00.000-07:00

After a two+ month hiatus from the handicapping contest scene I made my storied return yesterday at Monmouth Park, entering a $100 ($40 entry fee, $60 bankroll, top finisher qualifies for Vegas) event.

I started out strong with a $10W bet on Elite Class in the 3rd at Monmouth, who won to the tune of $24. At this point I was living large and loving life in fifth place with a $170 bankroll, but then as (too) often happens to me in these damn things, the wheels came off the bus. I didn't pick another winner all day (0-for-8), and finished in a multi-way tie for last place with a $0 bankroll.

My biggest shot was Close to the Edge in the turf sprint, I put $40W and $15P, horse went off at 34-1. He had lots of run late but this is the Monmouth turf course (speed highway) we're talking about here, so while his late run was pretty, it was too little too late and he only finished 4th (moved up to 3rd on a DQ), a length and a half back or so. Quite possibly on a fair-playing turf course, Close to the Edge wins, maybe at 20-1 (assuming he was overlooked yesterday partly due to the turf speed bias that everybody knows about by now), but that's just speculation. I also liked Bella d'Oro at 16-1 in the 7th race, but she had some sort of equipment problem coming out of the gate which finished her. I will definitely look for that horse next time.

I wheel right back this weekend in the Belmont contest, yes this Jersey player finally signed up for an out-of-town affair. It should be interesting at the very least.

Ky Derby: a look ahead

2010-04-20T16:47:00.000-07:00

So I hear there's some horse race or something or other coming up a week from Saturday?

No but seriously, I have liked Eskendereya since last fall (ahead of the curve as usual), but I will bet against him on May 1. I expect him to be way overbet (I guesstimate he'll go off at 9-5 in a 20-horse field), so there will be plenty of value elsewhere. I doubt I'll be betting to win, but in multi-race exotics I'll consider using Awesome Act, Stately Victor, and Rule, among others.

I'll be out in Phoenix for work next Thu-Sun and I should be free Sat. afternoon so I am planning to go to Turf Paradise to catch some live racing ($3500 AZ-bred claimers, anyone?) and for Kentucky Derby betting. I've never been to AZ so I am quite looking forward to it.

Opportunity missed!

2010-04-11T13:24:00.000-07:00

I liked Stately Victor yesterday. I didn't blog about it on here, unfortunately, but in e-mails sent to a friend (with the subject line stately victor) last Thursday April 8, I wrote:

"I may like him a bunch in the Bluegrass. No ML yet but I'm guessing he'll be reasonably priced as well, perhaps 6-1 ish."

Then I followed up with:

"geez I see stately is listed at 30-1. Guess I should look a little closer."

When he asked why I liked him, I replied:

"trips, mostly. That race he had from the 14 post last fall was a total throwout and he actually didn't run that bad. The GP turf was speed-favoring for much of the meet, at least what I saw, so I'm willing to give him passes for his recent races. So I just think his chances are nowhere near as bad as they look from the PPs -- Obviously he's gonna need to step up big-time on his figs, but as an early -year 3yo and with a surface change, its not entirely implausible."

So when my one highlighted horse going into a big contest day wins at 40-to freaking-1, uhhh...I probably should win the contest. But alas, I didn't. Here's my story, it's sad but true:

I couldn't pick my nose all afternoon. Lost 9 consecutive $20 bets. Mostly Kee, some GP and Aqu. No bombers, odds were mostly in 8/5 to 6/1 range, maybe a couple 7/1 to 10/1. Had a range of results -- a few I thought might win as late as deep stretch , a few were reasonably in the mix, and a few ran crummy. On the 25-person leaderboard I was mostly low 20s, then actually fell off the leaderboard (meaning bottom 5) - it was that kind of day. Meanwhile someone had apparently played >$100 on a 23-1 debut winner at Kee and was pretty much locked into first all day with about 2800-2900, so the race was essentially for second.

So with my $200 bankroll 90% depleted, I put my last $20 on Stately Victor, shocked that he was 40-1 (earlier in the day I had projected he'd go off 16-18 ish to one, 30-1 ML be damned), and lo and behold he wins going away and I vault from off the leaderboard into 2nd place with $822 in one fell swoop. Incredible. But it wasn't by much, there were probably 5-6 guys within $150 of me, 4-5 contest races left, and I had a big target on my back.

And alas, I went right back to my losing ways, dropped two more $20 bets, and I'm at $782 and in like 7th or 8th place, before the last contest race , the Kee finale. I say what the hell and go hell-bent for leather, put $500 W on the 1 horse (who was 9-2 when I bet him a few mins. to post, went off at 7-2) in an audacious attempt to take down the whole thing. The horse never really ran a lick tho, and I cashed out $282, up $82 on the day, a booby prize if there ever was one. Funny I'm almost certain that $500 was the most I've ever bet in a race, but it felt like monopoly money, the time between 530 (bluegrass) and 615 (last contest race) was so fast and furious, just a blur.

So that's my long and sordid tale. I'm kicking myself for not setting aside more than $20 for Stately Victor, obviously. I didn't stick around to see the final leaderboard, I guesstimate 2nd place finished with 1200-1400 ish, so even just $40W on Stately Victor could have punched my ticket for Vegas next January.

As far as losing the 9 pre- Bluegrass bets, there are shoulda woulda couldas of course, a couple of which are gonna linger in my cranium: (1) in a GP maiden race late in the afternoon, there was a 2-1 fave and two 5-2 shots, I didn't like the fave and pretty much decided on one of the 5/2 shots, though kind of inexplicably I changed course between my seat and the bettting machine and went with the other 5/2 shot, and of course my originally selected 5/2 shot wins. That was the difference between having $70 left for the Bluegrass and having $20 left. (2) there were two longshots I was intrigued by in GP turf races: Highland Cat (12-1) in the 3rd and Scorion (30-1) in the 5th. Both finished 2nd to the chalks, paying $9.40 and $20.60 to place, respectively, but I had talked myself out of both and laid off those races. I'm not a big fan of place betting but there is a "place" for it (pun intended) in certain situations, and arguably, one or both of situations qualified. Even one $10WP bet on Highland Cat or Scorion could have meant more money for Stately Victor.

Oh well. Onward and upward I guess.

Am I back? Maybe

2010-04-09T06:29:00.000-07:00

OK it's obvious that RedRockorBust hasn't been the most frequently updated blog in the blogosphere in recent months. I kind of faded out toward the second half of last year simply because I wasn't really playing in any contests. I've played a few this year, but been very very busy with work so I haven't had the time or motivation to give the blog much attention. I'm thinking I will now get it going again, at least once in a while.

Anyway, here is a quick an' dirty update on my 2010 contest playing.

I participated in all three contests in Monmouth Park's Simulcast Series Challenge -- January 16, February 14, and February 27. The main goal was to finish in the top 10 in at least one of the contests, in order to qualify for the 30-person invitational contest on April 11 (from which the top 2 finishers qualify for the DRF/NTRA contest in Vegas in January 2011).

The Jan. 16 contest was a big shoulda-woulda-coulda for me, as I came close to betting on a 30-1 winner at Tampa, which probably would have been enough to put me in the top 10 even with just a small bet. But I switched to another horse shortly before post time, and that was that. Cashed out $6.50 from a starting bankroll of $100.

The Feb. 14 affair was a bit of a bust, as I never really was in contention. Had a brief thrill when a 18-1 shot made the lead in the stretch in the Gulfstream feature, but she couldn't hold on. Turned my $100 into $0.

But I finally broke through on Feb. 27. I had a couple smallish winners early in the afternoon -- $10W on 3-1 and 6-1 winners -- that kept me in the hunt, then I turned it on late at Gulfstream. I had $10W on a 10-1 winner in the one stakes, then $100W on Amen Hallelujah at 2-1 (loved the relative value on that horse versus the way-overbet Bickersons, and sure enough she ran like a 1-2 shot rather than 2-1). I then lost a bet or two and was at $361/13th place heading into the final GP race -- hung a little fire and played $140W on First National, a 5-1 Pitts/Maragh winner in the off-the-turf finale, and he came running late to get past a drifting-out longshot by 3/4 of a length. Finished 5th of 219 with a $1,089 bankroll -- usually that fig is enough to win these contests, but I guess the blues were running that day so to speak, I ain't complaining.

Now onto tomorrow.

Not to brag or anything, but...

2010-04-05T17:35:00.000-07:00

...I'm a pretty big deal.

Actually I think is more accurately categorized under "even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while".

Either way, Saturday should be interesting.

Last hurrah for '09

2009-11-28T17:58:00.000-08:00

I partook in some handicapping contest action this weekend for the first time in a while, and for the last time of 2009. I had my moments, but it is now official: my sorry ass will not be in Las Vegas in late January for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship.

I tried the "free" (for NHC Tour members) online contest on Friday. I didn't really have the energy, time, or motivation to come in cold and adequately handicap races from Woodbine, Churchill, Fair Grounds, and Hawthorne, so I just took stabs, hoping I might get very very very lucky and win an NHC seat. Predictably, I didn't -- I finished with one winner, a bankroll of $6 or somesuch, and a bottom-decile placing.

More seriously, I then tried the contest at Monmouth Park on Saturday. $100 entry fee, $100 bankroll, top 3 finishers qualify for 2010 HWS (not NHC). Races from Aqueduct, Calder, and Woodbine. I focused on Aqueduct being that I don't follow Calder or Woodbine worth a hoot.

Of course the best way to win a handicapping contest is to pick winners, but beyond that my strategy was to be more patient than I have been in previous contests, and hope to still be in contention late in the afternoon. Kind of like a basketball coach might say when his team is on the road against a tough opponent: let's do what we can to stay in the game and have a chance to win in the last two minutes.

I started slowly and about halfway through the Aqueduct card, my bankroll was also halfway through, at $50. But I then strung together three consecutive winners: $10W on Buddy's Saint (chalky, but at least it got me on the board), $15W on Flashing (I liked her better at the 5-1 she was when I bet her rather than the 3-1 at post time, but what can you do), and $40W on Kodiak Kowboy (not half bad at 3-1, I thought). So after the Cigar Mile, my bankroll had increased to $240 and I was in 16th place (of 167).

I then took my big shot in the Aqueduct finale, a state-bred allowance race. I was between Fortissi More at 6-1 and Key Victory at 9-1 - landed on the latter mostly because of the price differential. Key Victory isn't the fastest horse in the world, but I thought he looked decent enough for this so-so field and could improve first-out off the trainer change to Bruce Brown. I slapped down $100 to win, which would have put me in the top 3 easily, and maybe on top.

Key Victory got a fine stalking trip and at one point around the far turn I liked my chances, but alas, the speed fought him off and he weakened late to finish third. @%#* me! That was that. I was down to $140 and back to 23rd place or somesuch. I then proceeded to blow most of that on stabs in the last couple races at Calder and Woodbine. Phooey! What looked so promising at 4 p.m. turned into crapola by 5:30.

I can't say I have a lot to regret in my post-contest autopsy, at least as far as going for the prize. I put myself in a position to win the damn thing late in the day. I took a big shot, the kind of shot that wins contests. And I liked the horse I took the shot with. But sometimes it just don't work out - in basketball parlance, you get an good look at a three-point shot for the win and it rims out. C'est la vie.

I can't decide if I should regret blowing my last $140 on stabs from Calder and Woodbine. Clearly, walking out with $140 after taking my shot would have been much better than walking out with 25c, as I did. But on the other hand, if you're alive that late in the day, you have to try to make a splash. I'm sure lots of contests have been won with lucky picks, as mine would have been, and the absolute worst outcome would have been missing a contest win or placing because you want to save your last few bucks. If you're in a contest, you should be in it to win it.

We interrupt this blog....

2009-09-19T06:23:00.001-07:00

to inform all of my dear faithful readers (if there are any, that is) that I am now blogging about the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf race on NTRA.com. Check it out. It's a pretty good platform, needless to say -- each BC race is being covered by a fellow member of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance.

As far as this site, I concede that the dream is dying, it looks highly dubious that I will make it to Vegas in January for the 2010 NHC. I am still planning one more effort to qualify, either at the Meadowlands contest on October 3 or (more likely) Aqueduct on November 14-15. I will chronicle it on here of course, but beyond that I'm not sure I have much to say, I'm afraid my Walter Mitty visions of the NHC aren't very interesting.

Meh

2009-08-29T18:52:00.000-07:00

No luck for this NHC hopeful in today's Travers Day online contest, as my meager bankroll of $16.70 put me in a tie for 393rd place (out of about 600 players). My only winner was The Roundhouse in Sar6, and Titletown Tiger's 2nd-place finish in the 13th gave me a few more shekels. The top two finishers (karsik and McCarron 7000) had $108.50 and $105.30, so I was a country mile from where I needed to be.

On the bright side, my results today indicate that I most likely would have done shitty in a real contest, so I'm glad I stayed away from the $600 (!) event at Monmouth. Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don't make.

Travers picks are in

2009-08-29T05:59:00.000-07:00

My final picks for today's NHC Tour Travers Day Online Challenge are as follows:

Race #1: Saratoga No. 2:
(Post No. 10) Cautionary Tale

Race #2: Lure S. - Saratoga No. 4:
(Post No. 2) Jack Spratt

Race #3: Saratoga No. 5:
(Post No. 2) Grand Stage (Off turf. Switched to #13 Good Question)

Race #4: Saratoga No. 6:
(Post No. 1) Picou/Richland Creek

Race #5: Victory Ride S. - Saratoga No. 7:
(Post No. 4) Sky Haven

Race #6: Saratoga No. 8:
(Post No. 5) Alex Le Great (Scratched. Switched to #8 Moonlark)

Race #7: Ballston Spa H. - Saratoga No. 9:
(Post No. 6) Captain`s Lover (SAF)

Race #8: NetJets King's Bishop S. - Saratoga No. 11:
(Post No. 7) Flat Bold

Race #9: Shadwell Travers S. - Saratoga No. 12:
(Post No. 2) Charitable Man

Race #10: Saratoga No. 13:
(Post No. 5) Ranger James (Off turf. Switched to #3 Titletown Tiger)

Travers Day ahead

2009-08-25T05:51:00.000-07:00

Toll the bell -- I was officially eliminated from the 'Survival at the Shore' contest on Saturday August 15. So unfortunately I will not be going to the 2010 National Handicapping Championship on Monmouth Park's dime. I finished in 254th place, which was nominally in the top 6% of the 4,228 initial contestants, but realistically it's not that impressive, because I'd estimate 1,000-1,500 people were eliminated by forgetting to make picks rather than making losing picks. It was fun, I lasted way longer than I ever had before, and hopefully I'll make an even better run next year.

Next up for me is the NHC Tour's free (for Tour members) Travers Day online contest this Saturday. It sends the top 2 (out of about 800-1,200 players) to Vegas, so needless to say one needs to have an unconscious day to get in, but I gotta be due one of these eras. I need to figure out how I can watch the races live online (I don't get TVG and I imagine ESPN will only show a race or two before the Travers) without going to the track, because the contest will be a lot less fun if I can't see the races.

Beyond that, I'm thinking I will try either the Meadowlands contest on October 3 or the Aqueduct affair on November 14-15 as my last-hurrah qualifying attempt of the year.

Barely breathing

2009-08-14T15:47:00.000-07:00

At this point it's almost comical that I'm doing so poorly in Monmouth Park's 'Survival at the Shore' contest, yet still I survive. I'm currently in 243rd place; my bankroll of $811.20 is almost $400 behind the leader. I had been up as high as 160th or so about 4-5 weeks ago, ~$275 behind the leader, but any slim hopes I had of pulling off some sort of miracle have long since dissipated. In a way I'm hoping I get eliminated soon just so I'm put out of my misery, but at the same time I continue to derive some enjoyment from the Wed-Sun action.

Some observations:
-I'm ranked 243, but there are only 233 remaining survivors. I think there are only 12 surviving players behind me.
-In the "Winners" category, I rank 364th and DEAD LAST among surviving players, with 28 wins, or less than 0.5 wins per day. My 28 win total is a full 5 wins fewer than the next survivor. So I guess I've generated a relatively high proportion of my bankroll through 2nd and 3rd place finishers.
-I had tried to pick some mix of prices and "sure" shots every day, but lately I've been going towards big prices. After all, I have nothing to lose.
-I'm glad this is all notional money. There have been 59 racing days so far, figure $18 a day ($2WPS on one horse in three races), that's $1,080 worth of bets. "Winning" an $811.20 bankroll off that implies a -25% ROI, significantly worse than the 18% take on win, place and show bets. And I'm one of the survivors!

Tough game.

OK, This Blog Has Pretty Much Sucked Lately

2009-08-03T10:46:00.001-07:00

I'll admit it: as a new blog venture, RedRockorBust has been more or less a bust so far. It looked promising for a while a few months ago, as I made some good posts and some interesting comments came in, but things took a turn for the lame and it has become pretty dang dull.

But rather than just let it slide, I thought I'd assess the situation on a blog post. (At the very least, this should be more interesting than some of my recent posts.)

The main reason why RRoB has sucked is simple: the blog is about trying to qualify for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship, and I -- largely due to cash flow constraints -- have been doing precious little to try to qualify for the 2010 NHC. It's like a cooking blog when the blogger hasn't been in the kitchen recently, or a biking blog written by someone whose tires are flat: it's no surprise that it's uninteresting. So, my posts about my latest move up or down 20 spots in the standings of Monmouth park's 'Survival at the Shore' contest aren't exactly thrilling stuff.

I also believe I have failed, at least so far, to reach the core readership for RRoB. It's good that this blog is a niche site, at least in theory, because it should keep my content focused; but it's also bad that this blog is a niche site, because it doesn't really appeal to the vast majority of horseplayers who don't play in handicapping contests. So, my audience is limited, and while I have made a few connections with NHC qualifiers, I don't think I've been effective at getting the name out there. Plus, when the blog gets weak, I'm not very motivated to spread the word, which contributes to the weakness of the blog -- sort of a vicious cycle.

I'm gonna stick it out for now, as I do have at least one more trick up my sleeve this year (beyond the Survival contest) to try to make it to the NHC at Red Rock in January. And I do believe the concept of this blog works. But beyond this year, I will have to sit down and reassess whether it's the best medium for my blogging.

242nd

2009-07-27T06:53:00.000-07:00

Man it has been a bad stretch for me in Monmouth's 'Survival at the Shore' contest, as I have dropped about 50 places in the standings since my last blog post and now stand in 242nd place. I'm very lucky to be still surviving though, as I had skin-of-my-teeth $3.60 and $4 days last Thursday and Friday before putting up a goose egg on Sunday, saved from elimination only by Talike Me's 2nd-place finish in a three-horse field. So despite how poorly my selections have been, I get the additional life preserver by virtue of surviving through yesterday, and I still have a puncher's chance.

I also took a crack at Brisnet.com's free online contest on Saturday. I had a respectable showing, with chalky winners Sydney Road in Belmont's 7th ($4.50, $3.20) and Unbridled's Story in DelMar's 3rd ($5.20, $3.60), plus place payoffs with Coaching (6Crc, $5.40), Lexi's Bay (4AP, $7.20), Ten's Salty Sally (2DMR, $18), and Dumbledore (8AP, $5.20). Six placers out of 12 contest races is not bad, but my total $52.30 bankroll only got me 677th place (I'm not sure what the field size was, but I imagine it was north of 2,000). As I have said, winning a free online contest is a bit of a lottery-ticket proposition given the huge number of competitors, so you have to have an insane day to finish in the top 3. Respectable just don't cut it.

189th

2009-07-20T14:50:00.000-07:00

Last week was a tough one for me in Monmouth Park's 'Survival at the Shore" contest, as shit-ass $4.80 and $2.60 days on Thursday and Friday set the stage for an 0-fer on Saturday, when Mike's Kong, The Cognac Kid, and Our Girl Friday all failed to hit the board. So the good news is that I'm one of 319 remaining survivors. The bad news is that I'm making no progress in the standings, as 189th place and still ~$300 behind leader "ontherail" are not comfortable places to be with August drawing near.

But I'll keep plugging away. Losing the life preserver on Saturday means I'm "naked" this week, so I'm history if I have another day like Saturday. I need to be extra careful, avoid trying to be cute and hope to still be standing on Sunday night when the next (and final) life preserver is awarded.

What's Next?

2009-07-15T08:55:00.000-07:00

With 2009 more than halfway over and my ticket to the 2010 National Handicapping Championship remaining just a figment of my imagination, I thought I'd look ahead and map out a tentative contest plan for the rest of the year. After all, despite my current paucity of discretionary income, I really need to take at least one more legitimate shot at making it to Vegas in January.

For starters, I will try my luck in Brisnet.com's contest on July 25, as well as the NHC Tour event on August 29. However, both of these are free, online contests, so I'd put them in the same category as my ongoing quixotic quest to qualify via Monmouth Park's 'Survival at the Shore' free online contest -- that is, lots of entries and not much better than a lottery-ticket chance of winning.

As far as real, in-person, money contests, I'm thinking perhaps I will take a crack at the Philadelphia contest in October or the Aqueduct affair in November. I would normally do Monmouth's late-August contest, and they are sending six to Vegas, but this year they jacked up the ante to $600. Barring a big score between now and then, that will be a bit out of my comfort zone.

So I'm that's where I'm at -- (1) keep with the free online contests and hope I get lucky; (2) try one more real money contest; and (3) try more than one real money contest if funds allow. I'm kind of hunting big game with a popgun here, but maybe I will surprise myself.

And of course, I am always on the lookout for the latest and greatest horse betting system and Breeders' Cup odds.

Qualifier Q&A: Rich Nilsen

2009-07-13T16:00:00.000-07:00

(This is the third of an ongoing RedRockorBust series profiling qualifiers for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship.)

Rich Nilsen, 38, qualified for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship courtesy of finishing 3rd in a Keeneland contest in April. Nilsen, of Lexington, Kentucky, spoke to RedRockorBust in a July 10 telephone interview.

RedRockorBust: You qualified for the 2010 NHC at Keeneland in the spring. Tell me about the day.
Rich Nilsen: It was pouring rain all day, just a miserable day. It was an unusual day and a disappointing card by Keeneland standards. This was a real money contest, sometimes in these contests you grind it out with a slow and methodical approach, and dive in when you have a good feel. But I didn't think there were any solid show bets on the entire card, so I thought I had to attack each race individually -- think to myself, "how can I take this $200 and make a profit?"

I liked a few horses Julien Leparoux rode, and he had a couple double-digit winners. But one of my key races was in the middle of the card, a horse named Final Count was exiting a key race at Gulfstream that was won by eventual stakes runner Afirmatif. There had been a few horses who came out of that race and ran well. Final Count was well-beaten by Afirmatif, he came in 10th, 14 3/4 lengths back, but he had legitimate excuses. So I thought there were a lot of positive factors. I played him to win and in exactas and trifectas, and he won at 17-1 with Rene Douglas aboard.

I kept cashing all day and was in 6th place heading into the last race. I figured I needed to make about $1,000 to break into the top 3 and qualify. In the last race, the horses I liked best ran 1-2. I had the exacta and trifecta. Leparoux rode the winner, a horse named Cross Village, he was 5-1 on the morning line but he went off at 13-1. I made a couple thousand dollars on the race, and ended up with about $5,200 from a starting bankroll of $1,800. I finished 4th, but one of the top 3 finishers had already qualified, so I got the spot.

RRB: What is your history in handicapping contests? Have you made it to the NHC before?
RN: I've been playing contests for more than 10 years. I have qualified for the NHC seven times. I finished 8th in the 2001 event after being a co-leader on the first day. That was my best performance -- $9,000 in total winnings. Other years I've finished mid-pack or up the track.

RRB: How long have you been playing the horses?
RN: I started playing horses in New York around age 7 when my dad used to take me. I watched the Harvey Pack show as a teenager. I then decided to go to the University of Louisville for their equine business degree. I have worked in the industry ever since, serving as director of marketing for Brisnet.com, and previously for the account wagering sites BrisBET and WinTicket.com. I am currently the tournament director at both Brisnet.com and TwinSpires.com.

RRB: Will you approach the 2010 NHC any differently than your previous Vegas experiences?
RN: I'm going to try to treat it more like any other contest. I have "overthunk" the NHC in the past, putting too much time into it while trying to do too much. I'm not going to kill myself in the days leading up to the NHC event or at the event itself. A few years ago I would try to handicap every race at every track. I couldn't bear to think that maybe a $40 horse would come in at The Fair Grounds and I didn't have it because I didn't look at the race! But I think it's an impossible task to handicap every race at every track. I'll just watch how the tracks are playing, be familiar with who the hot jockeys and trainers are at each track, and hope that the cards I'm dealt are the types of races I excel at.

201st

2009-07-12T17:58:00.000-07:00

I made some more progress in the 'Survival' contest, ending the week in 201st place with a $575.50 bankroll. There were a few tricky days last week, and a fair amount of the 412 remaining contestants lost their life preservers. I didn't, so for now I ain't complainin'.

So I continue to make good progress but as I've been saying, I have a lot of work to do. I'm $270 behind the leader, and the closer we get to the end, the more I will have to sacrifice the safety of the chalk and go for prices.

Coming up next: Q&A with 2010 NHC qualifier Rich Nilsen.

260th

2009-07-07T09:53:00.000-07:00

I had another solid week in the 'Survival' contest, highlighted by a $46.50 day on Saturday ($41.60 from Corredor's Song) and the near-loss of my life preserver on Sunday (thankfully winner Laureate Conductor went off as the slight favorite in the Choice Stakes, rather than last-place finisher Final Count). I currently stand in 260th place with a $498.80 bankroll.

We still have two months' of racing to go, but I am starting to feel a bit antsy about whether I can ever catch up to the leader ("ontherail"), who is more than $300 ahead of me with a bankroll $804.50, and has not one but TWO life preservers. Surviving every day is great, but to have any realistic chance I will need to bring home some longshots AND have lots of people fall by the wayside on one or more days where the chalk fails. So we'll see what happens, one neat thing about this game is that things can turn on a dime -- the current third-place contestant ("brandypuppy") was just eliminated on Sunday.

Separately, I will not be participating in the Monmouth Park/Canterbury Challenge this Saturday, despite the allure of possibly winning one of three spots to the 2010 NHC. For one, I don't follow Canterbury one iota, and bigger than that, the $400 ante is a little too rich for my blood in these recessionary times.

Lifepreservertastic!

2009-07-01T05:28:00.000-07:00

I was pleasantly surprised to learn that by virtue of surviving in Monmouth Park's 'Survival at the Shore' contest through Sunday June 28, I was awarded a bonus life preserver. To sum up my current situation, I am in 465th place, though about 130 people ahead of me are dead so I'm around 365th among 496 survivors; my bankroll of $403.10 is a full $300 behind the leader; and I'm one of about 400 survivors with one life preserver, with the other 96 or so having an enviable two.

Observations:

-The bonus life preserver will extend my time in the contest, but obviously it will not help my chances vis a vis everyone else.
-The extended time (however long it lasts) promises to be funner, because ~500 people feels much more like a real contest than 5,200+.
-I reread the rules and I learned that this contest is not a true 'survival' contest, because the highest bankroll wins even if the highest bankroll is that of an eliminated player. In other words, say the contest is down to Player X and and Player Y: Player X has $1,000 and is eliminated on August 1o, while Player Y survives until August 20 and finishes with $975. If I understand the rules correctly, Player X wins even though Player Y was the real survivor.
-Nobody will be eliminated today, but I need another day or two where favorites lose and I have a decent pick or two. While I have outlasted more than 90% of the original contest signer-uppers, I won't consider this interesting in terms of having a viable chance to win until survivors are down to 200.
-I spend way too much time looking at and analyzing this contest.

Signs of Life

2009-06-27T04:06:00.000-07:00

Since losing my life preserver last week, I have had a very strong week in the 'Survival' contest, including two $41 days, and I now sit in 556th place. I know, it don't sound like much, but given I had been languishing in the low 4-digits, it's a nice improvement in a very short period of time.

Of course it will only take one day to knock me out of the box for good, but on the other hand, I need only another day or two go my way to at least move things in the direction of being legitimately interesting. By my quick-and-dirty count, fewer than 200 of the 687 remaining survivors have life preservers left, so plenty of others share my precarious position, and one day of longshots in contest races may chop survivors down to 300.

Being that this contest has been the focal point of my blog in recent weeks, I obviously ain't been doing much in terms of really attempting to qualify for the 2010 NHC. I do plan to enter at least one or two real contests later in the summer. For now, for this discretionary-income-challenged hopeful, 'Survival' has been a lot of fun.

(glub glub)

2009-06-19T14:21:00.000-07:00

Yes, that sound you are hearing is the sound of the dinghy ZazaFreakingPachulia officially taking on water in Monmouth Park's Survival at the Shore contest. I lost my life preserver today, when Hello Andrew, Ay Papi, and Discreet Interview all failed to hit the board.

I do still survive, which is more than 2,985 other contestants can say. But, my survival is tethered to the slenderest of reeds, as my $264.70 bankroll has me in 1,199th place, and my precious life preserver has gone the way of Wilson the volleyball in the movie Cast Away (come on, raise your hand with me if that scene made you tear up).

On the plus side, there are a whole lot of eliminated playas in front of me, so if I can stick around for a while longer and/or have some nice-priced winners, I should rapidly propel upwards in the standings.

Surviving, But Hardly Thriving

2009-06-15T10:50:00.000-07:00

I'm hanging in there in the Monmouth Park Survival at the Shore contest. After 16 racing days, I am in 1,213th place, with a $235.90 bankroll and my lifeline intact. I have had one $40 day and a few other decent $20+ days, but most days seem to fit the same pattern: any price horse(s) I pick run out of the money, while my chalk(s) hit the board, but only for 2nd or even just 3rd. In other words, I'm doing what it takes to survive, but I'm not generating much cash and I have yet to make any headway in the standings, even as more players are eliminated.

Speaking of eliminations, there have been 2,731 so far, while 1,495 remain alive. That's a lot of people still in it, but it looks like as many as half have lost their lifelines, so even just one day of chalk biting the big one should lop 1/3 off that number.

Realistically I'm still a huge longshot in this thing, but somebody's gotta win, and I'm sure many people ahead of me in the standings would trade places with me for my lifeline. Win or lose, the contest is a lot of fun and it keeps me out of trouble, as I have even found it to be a decent substitute for going to the track.

NHCQualify Attempt #2: The Autopsy

2009-06-08T09:55:00.000-07:00

I finished with a $21.40 bankroll in Saturday's NHCQualify.com contest, good for 185th place in a field of 300. This is a material improvement from my $12.40/236th result from the April contest, but it's still a long ways off from cracking the top 30 (which cut off at $62.50). I started the day well, hitting the second (Scibelli, $4.40 $3.20) and third (Munnings, $9.00 $4.80) contest races, but I put up a freaking goose egg the rest of the way, going 0-fer the last seven races.

I have a couple things to second-guess.

First, sticking with Interpatation was probably a dumb bet given the 20-1 odds cap. I didn't love him, but I did think he was a decent speculative play at boxcar odds. However, he went off at 38-1, so as a contest play, his odds appeal was essentially halved. I could have found another horse at around 15- or 20-1 that had a better chance to crack the exacta without being subject to the odds cap.

Second, sticking with Western Connection at 5-1 in the last contest race was definitely dumb, because given how much ground ($41) I needed to make up heading into that race, a win would have done nothing for me. My only chance would have been to side with a horse like Johnny Be Angry ($17.50-1), Globemaster ($16.40-1), or Monastir ($13.90-1)....THANKFULLY, the winner Brave Soul ($22.40, $9.90) would not have put me in the top 30, because I did like him a bit, and the self-flagellation would be severe if he had paid enough to advance me.

At any rate, 'twas a disappointing day to be sure, but if I like to think I'm learning from these experiences and becoming a better contest player.

NHCQualify Attempt #2

2009-06-06T07:45:00.000-07:00

I haven't done much recently in my quest to qualify for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship recently, but I'm back in the game today with my entry in the NHCQualify.com online contest.

I did one of these back in February without any luck, so hopefully I do better today. Specs are the same: $100 ante, 300 contestants, no cash prizes, finishing in the top 30 is all that matters because that's what advances you to a direct qualifier for the NHC.

My picks are as follows:

Bel7: Carribean Sunset
Hol2: Scibelli
Bel8: Munnings
Bel9: Funny Moon
Hol6: Gorgeous Goose
Bel10: Interpatation
Hol7: No Ka Oi
Bel11: Chocolate Candy
Hol8: Star Nicholas
Bel12: Western Connection

I won't be online in the afternoon like I was for the previous contest, so for better or for worse, these are probably my final selections. I certainly picked enough prices to give me the needed firepower (Interpatation is my biggest bomber), but of course a couple of those prices gotta crack the exacta to do me any good.

Worst of luck to all my competitors!

Still Surviving

2009-05-31T15:52:00.000-07:00

The good news is that after six contest days, I'm still surviving in Monmouth Park's Survival at the Shore contest, and I still have my life preserver. The bad news is that my picks have been mostly crummy and my board-hitters have been chalky, so even though contestants are dropping like flies (mostly from failing to make picks, I'm sure), I seem to lose position every day. I'm currently tied for 1491st, with a bankroll of $97.60. I am one of 2,369 active players; 1,857 are dearly departed.

But, it's not even June yet, so needless to say there is a lot of surviving left to do.

Qualifier Q&A: Dennis Decauwer

2009-05-26T12:48:00.000-07:00

(This is the second of an ongoing RedRockorBust series profiling qualifiers for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship.)

A 22-1 shot prevented Dennis Decauwer from winning all the marbles in the 2009 National Handicapping Championship. Still, finishing second and taking home $150,000 wasn't too shabby, and he will be back at the Red Rock in 2010, courtesy of his qualifying via a Santa Anita contest in March.

Decauwer, 59, is a "mostly retired" CPA who has been a horseplayer for 40 years, a horse owner for 20 years, and a handicapping contest player for 10 years. The Rancho Cucamonga, Calif., resident answered RedRockorBust's questions via e-mail.

Red Rock or Bust: Have you had any success in contests before this year?

Dennis Decauwer: Success in contests can come and go. The last couple of years have been good for me including a 2^nd place finish in the most recent NHC at Red Rock, a win in the very recent Las Vegas Hilton Pick the Ponies and a 2^nd in last October’s Pick the Ponies.

I am a 5-time qualifier for the NHC and they have come in various ways, although my favorite formats are the live money contests such as Santa Anita’s. I have qualified twice there and once in a similar contest at Del Mar as well as at “monopoly money” contests (Fairplex Park and TOC—Calif. owners contest).

RRB: What is your general (or specific) strategy/approach for handicapping contests?

DD: I feel strategies differ significantly in different types of contests. If all races are mandatory, you must find as many winners as you can. When races are optional, finding price horses is critical as all players will be looking for opportunities to do the same. In live bankroll contests, betting is often more conservative as players might treat their own bankroll differently from “monopoly money”.

Setting targets for tournament totals is, generally, a good thing before you start, because most tournaments will end up in a predictable range of a multiple of starting bankroll. The best advice I can give is not be afraid of playing price horses and do not pay much attention to leader boards until late into contests.

RRB: The 2010 NHC is a long way off, but how are you thinking about it now (if you are at all)? Will you go in with any expectations or goals?

DD: As far as tournament goals, I always think I can win (that is a MUST attitude)! In preparation, my essentials include knowing how each track has been playing and watching as much video as I can. Having said that, one still needs to be lucky to win any contest—you need to win the photo finishes and get the right trips with your horses.

RRB: Dennis Decauwer, thank you.

DD: Good luck and let me know if I can answer anything else for you.

Lottery Ticket at the Shore

2009-05-20T05:31:00.000-07:00

My next endeavour toward attempting to qualify for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship begins this Saturday, when Monmouth Park kicks off its "Survival at the Shore" online challenge.

In "Survival", players pick a horse in each of the three races the track selects for that day -- usually, the feature and maybe two of the other races with relatively big fields. As long as at least one of your horses hit the board, you "survive" and move on to the next day, and whatever your horse(s) pay to win, place and/or show is tallied in your mythical bankroll. You get one "life preserver", or mulligan, where you can not hit the board on one day -- the second day you don't hit the board with any of your selections, you're out. The last one standing wins the contest, or if (more likely) there are multiple survivors at meet's end, the survivor with the highest bankroll goes to the Red Rock.

"Survival" is fun and free, and the winner qualifies for the NHC. However, there already 2,283 people signed up three days before the contest starts, so it's a bit of a lottery-ticket proposition and I'm certainly not packing my bags for Vegas just because I'm registered.

I've tried this contest in a few previous years. Once about 4 years ago I was one of about 300 people still alive through mid-June or so, but that was as far as I got. Other times I either forgot to make selections or finished off the board twice in the first week or two. Advancing on any given day sounds easy, but I have learned that it is surprisingly not difficult to have your three selections finish off the board.

Anyway, the first days are the biggest elimination days as people who signed up forget to make picks -- I'd guesstimate that a starting field of 2,500-3,000 gets whittled down to half that by the end of Memorial Day Weekend. I plan to remember to make picks every day this year, and of course I plan to hit the board every day, but as Mike Tyson said, everybody has a plan until they get hit.

Preakness Preview

2009-05-13T14:00:00.000-07:00

I'm in the camp that believes Mine That Bird is a throwout. I swear, I think he will go down in history as a mammoth Kentucky Derby fluke, the likes of which we haven't seen since Lil E. Tee won under Pat Day in 1992. Of course, if I'm wrong I'll be eating crow.

Rachel Alexandra looks formidable, but I'm willing to give Friesan Fire a pass for his no-show Derby, and he is my pick on Saturday. I don't think Friesan had the worst trip in the world at Churchill, but Derby history is littered with top horses who didn't run a lick in the Derby and came back strong. I haven't seen any morning lines yet but I'd guess Friesan may go off at 5-1 at least, which would be decent-enough odds.

And for Preakness Stakes Odds, Preakness Picks, or Preakness Stakes Results, head on over to docsports.com.

Qualifier Q&A: Richard Goodall

2009-05-11T15:49:00.000-07:00

(This is the first of an ongoing RedRockorBust series profiling qualifiers for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship.)

Richard Goodall, 65, is not your garden-variety NHC qualifier. You see, he happens to be one of only 10 people on the planet who have won the whole shebang. That's right, in 2008, Goodall topped a NHC field of 277 to win the big kahuna, and it was no squeaker -- his $272.30 bankroll set an NHC record for largest margin of victory. Goodall punched his ticket for the 2010 NHC via a Santa Anita contest back in March.

Goodall, a former attorney, estimates he has been playing the horses for 50 years, and he has played handicapping contests since their inception, approximately 25 years ago. He spoke to Red Rock or Bust from his Las Vegas home.

Red Rock or Bust: What is your strategy for handicapping contests?

Richard Goodall: I am a longshot player. I'm either very good or very bad. Most times I'll either be on the leaderboard or finish with $0. I rarely finish mid-pack. Finishing 32nd is no better than finishing last.

Every contest has its own rules -- cap or no cap, real money or mythical wagers, and so on. In order to win, you have to have at least one big-priced horse. I remember one contest at the Orleans Casino about three years ago that was all chalk, but that is extremely rare. So somewhere you have to step out of the box.

The only time I'd ever consider playing a favorite is if you think you're ahead in the contest and want to preserve capital. I'll never bet a 2-1 shot in an early race, I'd rather eat the ticket. You have to have the mindset that you're going to win, and you won't win by betting 2-1 horses.

In real-money contests, I'm fairly conservative in that I try to make a 10- or 20-race contest into a 2-race contest. On the last day or in the last race is when you play the horse you want to play, rather than spreading out.

RRB: It sounds like that approach can be linked to turf racing, where jockeys typically try conserve their mount and stay in the hunt before sprinting the last quarter-mile.

RG: Yes, that's a good analogy. The smart thing is to conserve and then make a big push toward the wire.

RRB: What if the horse you like best on a contest card is entered in an early race? Wouldn't you bet big early?

RG: That horse doesn't exist for me. No matter how much I love the horse, if it's not time to love a horse, I won't play the horse big. I will be cognizant that I like a horse more and maybe play $30 rather than $20, but I'm not going all in.

If you make a big score early in a contest, everybody knows their own math as to how they get to where you are. There are no tourists off the street in the big-money contests.

RRB: What is your strategy for mythical-bankroll contests?

RG: In mythical-bankroll contests you always want to save one bullet for the end. Contest strategy can be more important than handicapping. I always try to handicap later races first, always try to find a bailout horse, a 15-1 shot, a 6-1 shot. Whatever it would take to have a chance to win.

RRB: You qualified for the 2010 NHC via a contest at Santa Anita in March. What was your key score or scores?

RG: In the last race a horse was third-choice on the morning line, but my software rated him as the first choice. I put about $1,200 of my $5,000 on him, he won and paid about $12.

RRB: Will you do anything different in the 2010 NHC, or stick with what works?

RG: I'm too old to change. I do think the common advice to take shots in races that are not mandatory and score points in the mandatory races is wrong. That may keep you from being on the bottom but it keeps you from getting to the top. If you can hit longshots in the mandatory races, you can separate yourself.

Also, if you're betting a longshot at Santa Anita or Aqueduct, you can be sure than 40 others have that horse too. Fewer people will have longshots from Tampa, Fairgrounds, or Oaklawn, so a good strategy is to play those tracks.

Around November I start getting ready for the NHC. I try to be all over Tampa and Fairgrounds, I think that gives me an advantage. If you can be a contrarian in any way, you can beat the crowd.

I'm just an OK handicapper. I'm a contest player. I think I understand the makeup of contests better than most players.

RRB: Thank you, Mr. Goodall.

RG: Good luck.

346th Place

2009-05-04T18:58:00.000-07:00

I finished in a tie for 346th place in the weekend's NHC Tour Derby/Oaks contest, with a meager $13.60 bankroll. I was shut out on Saturday, as I imagine a lot of others were as well given Mine That Bird and some of the other not-easy-to-pick winners.

The contest winner ("Grindstone619") had $118, and the second-place finisher ("torufus") had $105.40. The 30th-place finisher, the last contestant to earn NHC Tour points, finished with $53.60.

I don't have a lot to say as far as a post-contest autopsy. I'm not crazy about these contests because when qualifying is a 2/650 proposition, luck means everything -- either you have a black swan day or you don't. Still, I'm sure Grindstone619 and torufus didn't expect to qualify, and they did, so maybe I'll be that person next time (or the next, or the next, or the next...).

Contest Day #2

2009-05-02T06:38:00.000-07:00

I'm tied for 208th after day 1 of the NHC Tour Kentucky Oaks/Derby online contest, with a $13.60 bankroll. The current leader has $90.60, and there are 15 players with at least $64, so needless to say I have some catching up to do.

My picks are as follows:

Contest Race #6, Eight Belles S.: Warrior Maid (10-1 ML)

Contest Race #7, Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.: Sugar Mint (6-1)

Contest Race #8, Humana Distaff S.: Game Face (2-1)

Contest Race #9, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S.: Zambezi Sun (10-1)

Contest Race #10, Kentucky Derby: Hold Me Back (15-1)

I leaned towards picking prices rather than the most likely winner of the races because if today is chalky, I have no chance even if I run the table. Realistically, I probably need Hold Me Back to win the Kentucky Derby, and win at least 3 of the other 4 contest races to have any chance. I imagine that improbable outcome would put me in the top 30 (where I'd earn some NHC Tour points), but it's highly questionable that it would put me in the top 2.

Contest Day #1

2009-05-01T10:47:00.000-07:00

Off and running on day 1 of the NHC Tour Kentucky Oaks/Derby online contest. I'm not exactly expecting to be 1 of the 2 (of ~650, I think?) contestants to qualify for Vegas, but someone has to win, right? Plus, I started out with a winner, as Chamberlain Road ($5.60 and $3.20) came from off the pace to win the Aegon Turf Sprint. Looks like 156 players had the winner and another 99 had the second-place finisher (paid $3.80 to place).

My other contest picks for today are:

Contest Race #2, Edgewood S.: Abbott Hall
Contest Race #3, Alysheba S.: Dr. Pleasure
Contest Race #4, American Turf S.: Bittel Road
Contest Race #5, Kentucky Oaks: Rachel Alexandra

I'm hoping I can still be in the hunt at the end of the day, which means I probably need at least one decent-priced winner plus a decent-priced placer. Rachel Alexandra won't count towards that, as she figures to be 3-5 or so.

Races 6-10 are tomorrow.

NOW things get started...

2009-04-29T18:06:00.000-07:00

Besides the Kentucky Derby, this Saturday marks a sort of unofficial start to the real racing season, in this NJ-based blogger's view. The Triple Crown segues into summer racing at Monmouth Park, Belmont, and Saratoga, which peaks in July-August, then things wind down with a nice Belmont fall meet and conclude with the Breeders' Cup.

Things start to perk up on the NHC Tour contest schedule as well. By my very unofficial count, so far 53 lucky folks have qualified for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship at the Red Rock. Assuming a 275-person field, that means there are still more than 200 spots up for grabs.

This weekend's main event is an online NHC Tour thingamabob that spans Friday and Saturday. The contest qualifies 2 for Vegas, but I'm assuming the field will be 800ish (as was the Feb. 28 NHC Tour Fountain of Youth event), so it's sort of like a lottery-ticket proposition. Beyond just the top 2, the top 30 finishers earn points that can help qualify you down the road.

The other contest thingamajig that starts this weekend is Public Handicapper, which I could swear used to qualify folks for the NHC, but now I'm seeing it qualifies people for the Horseplayer World Series. Public Handicapper is free so maybe I'll try it for fun, but to me, the HWS is to the NIT what the NHC is to the NCAA Tourney, so I'm not that interested.

New T-Shirt

2009-04-20T18:13:00.000-07:00

My NHC Tour t-shirt came in the mail today. I'd prefer the back to be a bit less of an attention-grabber, but it is clever.

Mini-break

2009-04-18T08:53:00.000-07:00

Nothing doing for this contest handicapper this weekend or next weekend. I'm taking a mini-break from the contest circuit (I'm sure they will miss me desperately!) and racing overall ahead of the Kentucky Derby (May 2) and the opening of Monmouth Park (May 9).

There's plenty of NHC Tour action going on without me, though. Events this weekend at Santa Fe Station, Santa Anita, and Keeneland will qualify a total of six for Vegas, and online affairs at and XpressBet and NHCQualify (April 25) will stamp the tickets of another 15 lucky players, none of whom will be the proprietor of redrockorbust.blogspot.com.

I'll be back in the swing of things within a fortnight.

Early Derby Thoughts

2009-04-15T12:39:00.000-07:00

The crux of this blog is my quest to qualify for the 2010 National Handicapping Championship, but I figure there's no harm in occasionally weighing in on other racing topics. To that end, I'd like to offer my preliminary 2 cents on the upcoming Kentucky Derby.

I believe the Kentucky Derby is the most over-analyzed horse race in America, and largely a crapshoot. From a handicapping perspective, it’s tough to have much confidence that your horse will win, as 20-horse fields create traffic jams and brutal trips that just cannot be predicted. Other variables such as the 1 1/4-mile distance, and the pageantry and madness of the day itself, just add more uncertainty to the mix.

All that said, for those of us who still plan to bet on the Kentucky Derby, I think Quality Road is the real deal. At the moment, it looks like there may not be a lot of early pace signed on for the Derby (this assessment is subject to revision, of course), and QR has proven versatility in either going to the front or sitting just off the early leaders. The recent quarter crack that caused him to miss some training is a concern, but I think there's plenty of time left before Saturday, May 2 for Jerkens to get him right.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

NHCQualify: The Autopsy

2009-04-13T10:50:00.000-07:00

I finished in 236th place in Saturday's NHCQualify contest, out of 298 players, with a bankroll of $12.40. My sole winner was My Maloof Rocker ($3.20, $2.20) in Santa Anita's 2nd race, and my biggest earner was Why Tonto (who paid $7 to place) in Keeneland's 10th race.

I have no real regrets, lamentations, or shoulda woulda couldas -- it just wasn't my day. Blue Grass winner General Quarters ($30.60, $11) was the biggest price in the 10 contest races,and I didn't like him at all. Other decent-priced winners that I didn't have were Tiger Woodman ($24.20, $9.60), Eternal Star ($13.20, $5.40), and Hero's Reward ($12.60, $6.20) at Keeneland, and Shadow of Illinois ($17, $8.40) and Idontbelievemyeyes ($14.60) at Santa Anita. You needed at least two of the above horses plus a little chalk money to get to the minimum qualifying bankroll of $72.40.

On the bright side, I'm not at all discouraged and the contest was funner than I expected. I'm not in the 4/18 NHCQualify event, but I'd like to try another one in June.

Playing for Pride

2009-04-11T14:45:00.000-07:00

Massone loomed a threat until mid-stretch and finished a decent third, but that didn't do me an iota of good. Switched out to Santa Anita for the next event, where Doriprize lost any chance by blowing the break.

With only three races left and a meager $5.40 in my bankroll, I'm essentially playing for pride the rest of the way. For the 10th race at Keeneland, I just switched to the #3 Why Tonto, who looks like he could be the controlling speed. At 6-1 (and quite possibly drifting lower), he won't save the day for me, but I figure at this point everyone who's far back in the contest is chasing bombers, so maybe I'm being contrarian by not being contrarian.

Or maybe I'm just punchy from sitting at my computer for too long!

Go Massone!

2009-04-11T14:12:00.000-07:00

I switched over to the #11 Massone for the Blue Grass. Not the best post, obviously, but I like 13-1.

This is a pretty suspect field, in my estimation -- lots of pretenders. Massone has a lot to prove himself, but he's been running against some legit California 3-yos including Chocolate Candy and I Want Revenge. So if the Cali contingent really is strong this year, Massone should rate a good chance here.

I guess others are thinking the same way, as Massone is down to 10-1 as the enter the gate.

Time running out

2009-04-11T13:50:00.000-07:00

I thought Forever Together coming off a layoff in a paceless field was a poor betting proposition at even money, so I won't be losing any sleep over that one.

But my situation is starting to look dire. Five races down, five to go, and all I have in my ledger is one chalky winner. It's the football equivalent of being down 20-3 at halftime.

Blue Grass coming up next. I gotta find me a winner.

Bah

2009-04-11T13:14:00.000-07:00

I was right that Storm Treasure was no good, but I didn't anticipate that Keep Laughing wouldn''t lift a hoof either. Not good.

I'm not gonna bother to look where I am in the standings for now, I'll take it on faith that I have some serious ground to make up.

Four races down, six to go. It's not over, but realistically, I probably need to pick a couple non-chalk winners over the next four races to get back in the hunt.

On the board

2009-04-11T13:10:00.001-07:00

The Santa Anita chalk got me on the board, yay. I think I'm in 120th place.

Back to Keeneland. I just switched from Storm Treasure to the #2, Keep Laughing -- I don't think the pace scenario sets up well for the late-running Storm Treasure.

0-2

2009-04-11T12:58:00.000-07:00

Hewitts was a bust and now the contest moves out west to Santa Anita.

I started with Samantha's Rule but I just switched to the 1-5 chalk My Maloof Rocker. For confidence reasons, I need to put some points on the board.

0-1

2009-04-11T12:14:00.000-07:00

It was a less than auspicious start to my NHCQualify.com day, as Tasty Temptation finished 5th at 7-2. It looked like she had traffic throughout, but what can you do, them's the breaks in a 10-horse field.

I'm a bit bummed because I strongly considered switching over to the eventual 3-1 winner Song of Solomon until about a minute before post time, but ultimately I decided to stand pat with Tasty Temptation. Having Song of Solomon ($8.40 to win and $4.80 to place) won't make anyone's contest day, but having it is a lot better than not having it.

I just peeked at the standings -- 22 people (less than I would have guessed) had Song of Solomon and are tied for first with $13.20, and another 43 (more than I would have guessed) had Esperanza de' Oro, who paid $9.40 to place. I guess that puts me in a 235-way tie for 66th place, with $0.00!

Contest Day

2009-04-11T08:22:00.000-07:00

Well here we is, the day of my first-ever NHCQualify.com contest, ain't it thrilling. I'm hoping some beginner's luck will carry the day for me.

The 30th-place person from the April 4 NHCQ contest finished with $77, so I guess that's a decent estimate of what it will take to advance. $77 doesn't sound like all that much but it essentially is a doubling of your $40 betting allowance, so needless to say, I need to have a very good day.

I entered my picks early (in case my internet goes down or something) as follows:

Kee5: Tasty Temptation
Kee6: Hewitts
SA2: Samantha's Rule
Kee7: Storm Treasure
Kee8: I Lost My Choo
Kee9: Join in the Dance
SA5: Luhuk's Dancer
Kee10: Equitable
SA6: Stormy Slew
SA7: Arden Park

I'll be reviewing more over the course of the afternoon and up until post time, I imagine I'll call at least a few audibles and change stuff on the fly.

Back in Action

2009-04-09T18:29:00.000-07:00

After a six-week layoff from handicapping contests, I'm looking forward to trying my luck in Saturday's NHCQualify.com event. I'm still mourning my Feb. 28 non-qualifying (why on earth did I bet Beethoven over Quality Road in the FOY?) for the Invitational they're having at Monmouth Park this Saturday -- dang I wanted to be at that thing -- but NHCQualify it is.

If I understand the rules correctly, I'll be one of 300 contestants on Saturday, which is a "Round 1" event. The goal is to finish in the top 30, which moves you on to Round 2, to be held on the last Saturday of the month. Assuming 90 players in Round 2 (30 from each of the three Round 1 contests), the top 9 then qualify for Vegas. So the percentages seem reasonable enough, but of course, making the top 10% in two consecutive contests is much easier said than done.

Of Saturday's 10 contest races, 6 are from Keeneland and 4 are from Santa Anita. I've not developed any real feel for the synthetic KEE surface, and I never have followed California racing closely, so I will need more than my share of luck. The format (1 mythical $2WP bet on each race, odds capped at 20-1 on win and 10-1 on place) will also be new to me, as the NJ contests I have played offer more leeway on wager size and do not cap odds.

At any rate, all that stuff is noise really, my focus on Saturday is to be in the top 30 after Santa Anita's 7th race is made official. This will require some good handicapping, and some better-than-good luck.

I'm hoping to live-blog my contest experience in some way, shape or form on Saturday.

Texas-Sized Contest

2009-04-03T11:01:00.000-07:00

NHC contest action this weekend includes a live event at Lone Star Park as well as an NHCQualify.com affair.

Lone Star's contest looks pretty decent -- it is the second of three free 450-player qualifiers, from which 50 move on to an October championship. The 150-person championship then qualifies 6 for Vegas. The designated wagers are about as varied as I've ever seen for a contest: $1,140 in mythical bets, including exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. Unfortunately I will not be in Texas tomorrow, so they will have to somehow carry on their contest without me.

I'm trying next Saturday's NHCQualify.com, but this weekend is another idle one for this NHC Tour member.

There Will Be No Contesting This Weekend

2009-03-27T08:29:00.000-07:00

There are no NHC-linked handicapping contests going on this weekend, as evidenced by the big ol' gap between March 21 and April 4 on the NHC Tour schedule. As indicated in recent posts, I've been a bit dormant myself, both as a NHC Tour participant and as a blogger.

I am pointing for the NHCQualify.com contest on April 11. I know: yawn. How much can this guy fill his blog with thrilling tales of signing up for a contest? (Well at least you can't say I don't have a self-deprecating sense of humor.)

For blog content, I'm thinking of trying to contact some of the folks who have already qualified for the 2010 National Handicapping Contest, maybe calling it a "qualifier interview" and doing a Q&A format. What is their background in contests, do they have specific contest strategies, how did they qualify, etc. I'm sure I won't be able to find contact info for some, and others will tell me to bugger off, but I think this could generate some interesting stuff.

Just Watching This Weekend

2009-03-19T12:59:00.000-07:00

This Saturday's NHC Tour handicapping contests are a live event at Fairgrounds and an XpressBet Live online affair. As much as I like the Big Easy, I wasn't planning on being in N'awleans this weekend, plus the $3,500 ($500 entry fee plus $3,000 bankroll) is just a little too rich for my blood. The XpressBet contest looks like a decent-enough opportunity -- $300 buy-in, top 3 of 400 qualify for Vegas -- but I'll be sitting this one out as well, keeping my powder dry for future opportunities.

I'm back in action for the April 11 NHCQualify.com contest.

What's Next?

2009-03-09T08:05:00.000-07:00

It has taken a little time to banish my disappointment from the Feb. 28 contest. I felt like a NFL offense that had 1st-and-goal on the 5 yard line but couldn't punch it in after 5 attempts (we'll say I had one extra attempt on a defensive holding call). But I am now moving on, at least as far as mapping out what might be next on the NHC Tour.

A revised contest schedule is now up on the NTRA site. It seems the biggest change is the addition of four "super" qualifiers, offering a combined 21 spots out to the Red Rock next January. For this New Jersey-based NHC Tour member, the good news is that the August 29 super event will be held at Monmouth Park. The bad news is that these "super" qualifiers apparently call for "super" antes -- the Monmouth contest is a $600 affair, quite a bit more than than the usual contest price tags of $100-$400.

Six Benjies is definitely high in absolute terms, but it does send six to Vegas, so it actually sounds pretty decent in terms of qualifying bang-for-the-buck. Depending on how my finances shape up heading into the day, I may well give it a try.

For now, I'll focus on much-cheaper ($100) NHCQualify.com contest next month, and then the next free NHC Tour online event on Kentucky Derby day.

Loomed, faded late

2009-03-01T09:27:00.000-08:00

It was a good, full day of handicapping contest action yesterday at Monmouth Park. I was patient early on; picked a few nice winners that had me in the hunt until very late in the afternoon; and I have no real gnawing regrets or shoulda, woulda, couldas. But unfortunately, I still came up empty.

My winning bets were $20W on Ghost Hour (paid $13) at Gulfstream; $10W on No Questions ($13.80) at Aqueduct, and $50W on Barrier Reef ($6.40) at Aqueduct. The winners increased my $100 starting bankroll to $200, $259, and then the high-water mark of the day, $329. They also put me on the contest leaderboard, mostly bouncing around between 12th and 24th place (of 237 participants) -- not half bad.

But the wheels fell off late. $329 wasn't gonna get me in the Top 10 -- needed at least $600-$650 for that, as of the last standings I saw -- so I had to take some shots to try to punch my way in. So, I played

-$30W on Senor Freddie (~15-1) in the Aqu finale. It was a speculative play but closers had been sucking up speed all day and this horse looked like he could come from the clouds. Alas, he didn't do much of anything.
-$40W on Rogue Victory (~8-1) in the Canadian Turf Handicap. Was stepping up in class but I thought perhaps he could manage a rail-skimming trip and prove good enough. He did make a run around the far turn, but got fanned wide and never really fired in the lane.
-$50W on Beethoven (~5-1) in the FOY. Got ran off his feet early and fell too damn far back, and could rally only for 3rd. No regrets here, as my second choice in this race was Break Water Edison, who didn't even finish.
-$40W on Our Ace (~10-1) in the Tampa finale. Looked in decent shape while gaining around the turn but flattened out late. I don't follow Tampa at all so this was admittedly a stab, one I never would have made on a non-contest day, but it was another chance to get in the Top 10 so I had to take it. And lastly,
-$150W(!) on first-timer Virsito (~5-1), in the GP finale. This was a full field of mostly first-time starters going a mile on the grass, so it was tough to be real confident about what the outcome would be, but I did think Virsito was the most likely winner. Nice pedigree, favorable post, the Goldberg-Marquez connections had at least one other debut winner at the meet, and the tote board said he was live (bet down from 8-1 ML). Turned out none of that meant anything, as the horse really didn't pick up his feet and finished 7th.

I was out the door after that, and my once-mighty betting card got me back less than $20.

What lessons can be learned? You know, I can't really think of any. Other post-contest times I thought maybe I had been overly aggressive, or bet the wrong horse, or didn't bet enough, etc. This time, I really think I did right by contest strategy. After all, all you can ask for is to be in the thick of things late in the afternoon, and I was. I took FIVE shots after my bankroll had reached $329, any ONE of which would most likely have punched me into the Top 10, but nothing came through. I have to think that next time, maybe one (or heavens, even two?) will come through.

P.S. Nothing doing in the NHC contest, where I tied for 357th or something, a midpack finish.

Big Day Tomorrow

2009-02-27T16:42:00.000-08:00

Tomorrow I plan to try my luck at the Simulcast Series Challenge #3 at Monmouth Park. I will also be participating in the NHC Tour online contest.

My focus will be on the Monmouth contest, with the goal of finishing in the top 10 of an estimated field of 200 (being that this is the last SSC of the season, the previous SSC attracted more than 200 players, and tomorrow's weather is supposed to be decent, I suspect more than 200 will show). This would qualify me for a 30-person invitational contest in April, where the top 2 finishers go to Vegas next January.

I will make picks in advance for the online contest, possibly revising here and there over the course of the day if I'm able to, but I'm not putting many eggs into this basket. Only the top 2 qualify, out of a guesstimated field of 800ish. 2-of-800 is much less attractive than 10-of-200, so the latter proposition is where I'll devote my mental energy.

I won't get into specific horses, not for any competitive reason or anything, but rather because I haven't really reviewed the races yet. After a couple recent early flush-outs, I am thinking I may try to be a little more patient earlier in the contest, so I have a better chance of still being kicking around late in the afternoon.

A $125 T-Shirt?

2009-02-25T13:29:00.000-08:00

After exhaustive analysis and deliberation, as well as consultations with family, friends, financial and spiritual advisors, and my apartment-building maintenance man, I went ahead and plunked down $125 to join the NHC Tour. At the very least, I figure how legit is a blog about trying to make it to the NHC if the blogger isn't on the NHC tour?

Aside from the considerations I outlined in my previous post, I'm thinking that even if I don't get anywhere on the NHC tour, membership can end up saving me money. This is because on the five free-contest days over the course of the year, I will be able to not go to the track in person and still catch some Saturday racing action. Being that my in-person track trips are more likely to put a hole in, rather than stuff, my wallet, even 1 or 2 non-trips can save me back more than the $125 tour outlay.

And plus, membership gets me a NHC Tour T-shirt, which I wasn't aware of until I signed up. Howza bout that!

NHC Tour: To Join or Not to Join

2009-02-18T18:12:00.000-08:00

So I'm thinking of joining the 2009 NHC Tour.

I'm definitely intent on making it out to Vegas next January (heck, I have a blog dedicated to the quest), so the decision could appear to be a no-brainer. But as I've previously indicated, discretionary funds are not unlimited, so I want to carefully vet each dollar spent for what chance it gives me to qualify. In other words, if there's a $100 contest in my backyard that qualifies 3 of 100, sign me up; if there's a $400 contest across the country that qualifies 1 of 300, I'll pass.

It costs $125 to join the NHC Tour. As I see it, the primary benefit is the five online contests free to Tour members over the course of the year, which offer a total of nine spots to Vegas. The NTRA's Fritz Widaman told me there were about 800 or 900 (he said one or the other, I just forget which) in the Tour last year, and he expects 1,000 or so this year. So, $125 for a chance to be one of 9 qualifiers out of 1,000 isn't bad, as far as contest probabilities go.

Tour members also earn points based on contest placings, and it looks like the top six in the final standings also go to Vegas in 2010. I personally don't see much value to this qualifying route, though, as it clearly favors more regular players with deeper bankrolls. Final points are determined based on a player's top-five finishes, not just cumulative points, but still, you're much more likely to show a strong top five if you played in 30 contests rather than 10.

There's also a $2 million bonus awarded if the NHC winner is an NHC Tour member. This is kind of an abstract concept to someone who's scratching and clawing just to get in the tourney, let alone win it....but still, wouldn't that be a pisser if missed out on the two mil because I was too cheap to buck up $125?

2nd Monmouth Winter Contest In the Books

2009-02-11T16:53:00.000-08:00

Good news: I didn't lose in last Saturday's Simulcast Series Challenge #2 at Monmouth Park. But the bad news is: I didn't win, either. My neutrality is explained by a previous commitment that precluded my attendance.

So I have no post-contest sob story to offer up, nor can I regale my loyal readership with a proud and dramatic tale of victory.

But I always look forward to seeing the results, as there are usually some insights to be gleaned. As the Monmouth Park link shows, Jim Wasserson of Washington Crossing, PA beat 212 rivals with a final bankroll of $920. Ricky Zimmer finished second with $682.90.

A couple observations:

1. I am surprised that Monmouth attracted 213 players in these tough economic times. Usually these winter contests seem to get 160-180 or thereabouts -- I'd have figured if anything Saturday's number would be lower, with presumably fewer people willing to ante up $200. I guess the strong attendance is a testament to the growing popularity of handicapping contests generally, and Monmouth's continued capable management of their contests specifically. In fact, I daresay that in this era of declining attendance, field size, and caliber of horseflesh at the Oceanport Oval, the handicapping contest program is the track's one growth area.

2. I am not surprised at the $920 and $682.90 1-2 finishers, which are quite low bankrolls by historical contest standards. With a full field of 213, usually you need at least $1,500 to have a shot at winning, and I've seen $2K-$4K winners. I think prices tell the tale as to why nobody cracked four figures.

Aqueduct, which I suspect is the most-bet track in the contest, was ridiculously chalky on Saturday -- aside from the $16.40 first-race winner, the other 8 winners paid between $2.90 and $6.50. Tampa was not much better -- one 54-1 bomb came in, but 8 of the other 10 winners paid less than $9. Gulfstream had several prices in the $16-$20 range, but apparently no more than a few contest participants put more than one of them together with any firepower.

Risk taking is what wins handicapping contests, but when chalk rules the day like it (mostly) did on Saturday, risk taking is punished.

At any rate, I am looking forward to the Simulcast Series Challenge #3 on February 28 at Monmouth. I imagine it will be a large field given last week's attendance and the fact that this will be the last qualifier for the invitational contest in April.

Will I Have to Make the Bed?

2009-02-05T11:53:00.000-08:00

Station Casinos is reportedly considering filing for bankruptcy. I'm reportedly considering whether to be troubled by this news, as Station Casinos just so happens to own the Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas, where I plan to stay on January 28-29, 2010, as I compete for the National Handicapping Championship. Rather than a comfy stay as a pampered guest in the lap of luxury, I am picturing stained sheets, threadbare carpets with cigarette burns, and day-old room-service leftovers festering in the hallway.

But realistically, a bankruptcy filing would be a capital-structure reorganization to get Station Casinos out from under its massive debt load and should not have any meaningful impact on the day-to-day operations of the facility. In the service industry, any competent management team knows that cutbacks are dangerous and can quickly lead to a no-return downward spiral in revenue. Who knows, the potential bankruptcy is supposed to be a "prepackaged" arrangement, which typically moves quicker than an out-of-the-blue filing, so Station Casinos may well have already emerged from bankruptcy come next January.

So while my fears of the Red Rock deteriorating into a roach motel were stated tongue-in-cheek, the turn of events goes to show how times have changed. As the Wall Street Journal reported, just a couple years ago Station Casinos sought to "carry out ambitious expansion plans to upgrade its profile from middling casinos for Las Vegas locals, to luxury properties that lured out-of-towners." Surely, landing the NHC was part of those expansion plans -- wonder if either side will have qualms about renewing the deal when the time comes.

Early-season musings

2009-02-04T12:42:00.000-08:00

Due to a previous commitment, I will not be participating in the handicapping contest at Monmouth Park this Saturday. I wish I could make it, especially as this is one of only three pre-qualifiers (top 10 of ~200 move on) for an April invitational contest that sends the top 2 of 30 to the 2010 NHC at the Red Rock. But c'est la vie, there will be other qualifying opportunities, I only hope that I can look at the results on Saturday evening and not get the sinking feeling that I may have missed something big.

I did take a crack at the Jan. 17 pre-qualifier at Monmouth, with no luck (I realize this is old news by now, but being as this blog didn't exist then, I figure it's worth a quick recap). I had $30W on an 8-1 horse on the Tampa turf that led all the way before being caught late by a 17-1 shot, which would have put me in the early-afternoon top 5, but nothing doing beyond that -- 4 losing bets and I was out the door.

I was amazed several days later when I read that the contest winner was down to his last $10 before parlaying 7-1 and 23-1 winners in the final two races at Gulfstream. I usually feel hopelessly behind the eight-ball when my $100 bankroll is down to $30 or $40 (at which time the leader may have $400 or somesuch). If I have $10 left, I'm pretty much putting on my jacket. Indeed, Nick Fazzolari's win was no mean feat: by my back-of-the-envelope calculations, the odds of hitting back-to-back 7-1 and 23-1 winners are approximately 1 in 192 (1/8 x 1/24).

Just goes to show that you always have a puncher's chance in handicapping contests, or at least those with no max bet.

Greetings!

2009-01-27T13:05:00.000-08:00

And welcome to the inaugural post of my blog, Red Rock or Bust!

Today is Thursday, January 29, 2009. It is a mere 365 days, aka one year, until the 2010 National Handicapping Championship (NHC) is held at the Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas.

For those of you not familiar, the NHC brings together about 300 of the finest handicappers in the land for a shot at $1 million in prize money. It is an invitational tournament -- to earn a seat, you must qualify through one of the many "feeder"-type contests held throughout the year, at various tracks around the country or online. I liken it to the NCAA basketball tournament -- it's a long season, there are many different ways to get in, and when the time comes, it's where everyone wants to be.

I have a...er...um..."mixed" (to put it graciously) record so far in handicapping contests. I have probably entered 20 or so contests over the past five years, mostly at Monmouth Park, with buy-ins ranging from $50 to $300. I finished 10th one time a few years ago, my only prize-money placing. Several other times I've been on the leaderboard, once as high as 3rd of almost 200, only to crap out by day's end. The other times I finished off the board, either breaking evenish or (more often) going bust.

But I have confidence my day will come, for a few reasons:

1. I like longshots, I think I'm decent at finding live longshots, and I'm not afraid to play aggressively when I find them. This formula will bounce me out of most contests early, but on days when I'm on, it gives me a real chance.
2. While I see more than a few familiar faces on the NJ contest circuit, the names in the top 10 are almost always different. That tells me that even the best handicappers finish off the board in these contests much more frequently than they finish on the board. Good handicapping is important, but so are persistence and luck.
3. Recap articles often describe the contest winner as a frequent or semi-frequent player, but a first-time winner. So prior to winning, those folks were in the same classification I'm in now. Persistence pays off.
4. Ron Rippey of the Newark Star-Ledger not only qualified for the contest in 2006, but he WON the whole damn thing! He's been around for a long time and is an established and respected handicapper, but I find his published picks generally on the chalky and conservative side, with boring, odds-on "best bets". So if Rippey can win the NHC, it tells me there is no magic formula to break through other than solid handicapping, judicious risk taking, and a big ol' dollop of luck.

There are constraints to my quest to qualify for the NHC. First and foremost, antes. Unfortunately, contests can be expensive to enter, contests can be expensive to travel to (I can cheaply get to Monmouth, The Meadowlands, Belmont, and Aqueduct), and my discretionary funds are hardly unlimited. Internet qualifiers can be cheap or even free, but such contests are generally poor "lottery ticket" propositions, with maybe one NHC spot for 1,000+ contestants. So needless to say, I will have to pick my spots carefully.

Add it all up and I hope to make this a fun and interesting narrative of my attempts to qualify for the 2010 NHC. Wish me luck!