tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30401841352601375192024-03-13T10:46:58.601-07:00Red Rock or BustOne mortal's quixotic quest to qualify for the 2013 National Handicapping ChampionshipTerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-51819546892259714642016-05-20T13:27:00.005-07:002018-03-01T12:27:05.253-08:00Edward Enborg Leads NHCQualify.com Player RatingsEdward Enborg of Jacksonville, Florida is the highest-rated <a href="http://nhcqualify.com/" target="_blank">NHCQualify</a> player, through the May 15 contest.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-qnb5eHl2_CRjBprWmOvds-VD2uIRPoCkOkTaIARIrKks-lrIGQmEXi4mgAtQEPygHDW2c0YOx0qV32SKNEdKDIr2qaCaSFF9mslhHst1nRyE9GTzqSKC7UJCTwoYeAUvY_bLl3HOR-c/s1600/2--print-leading-the-pack.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-qnb5eHl2_CRjBprWmOvds-VD2uIRPoCkOkTaIARIrKks-lrIGQmEXi4mgAtQEPygHDW2c0YOx0qV32SKNEdKDIr2qaCaSFF9mslhHst1nRyE9GTzqSKC7UJCTwoYeAUvY_bLl3HOR-c/s320/2--print-leading-the-pack.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">That's Enborg in front</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<a href="http://redrockorbust.blogspot.com/2016/04/introducing-nhcqualify-player-ratings.html" target="_blank">Red Rock or Bust introduced its NHCQualify player ratings in early April</a>, to great fanfare. (Actually I could hear a pin dropping above the audience reaction, but perhaps the silence was a stunned one because the methodology is so utterly brilliant.) <br />
<br />
These player ratings differ from the <a href="https://www.ntra.com/nhc/leaders/" target="_blank">NHC Leaderboard</a> by counting misses as well as hits. It's all well and good to have the most NHC Tour points, or lead in the NHCQualify-specific "Cyberstars" competition, but the reality for those thingamabobs is that frequency of contest play is at least as important, if not more important, than quality of contest play. In other words, you need to play in a boatload of contests (and spend a boatload of $) to have any realistic chance at being a top dawg in the eyes of the NHC Tour.<br />
<br />
The egalitarian NHCQualify player ratings level the playing field by recognizing quality of play only. As long as you've played a reasonable minimum number of entries (25% of all possible NHCQualify entries this year so far, or 9 after the May 15 contest), you're eligible.<br />
<br />
Enborg, <a href="http://www.drf.com/blogs/fornatale-navy-man-enborg-making-waves" target="_blank">who was written about by the NHC marketing dude in 2014</a>, has a player rating of 2.91, well ahead of the competition. He has produced 32 points over a relatively modest slate of 11 NHCQualify entries. Enborg finished 6th of 658 entries on January 30, earning 10 points (<a href="http://redrockorbust.blogspot.com/2016/04/introducing-nhcqualify-player-ratings.html" target="_blank">see methodology here</a>); 3rd of 133 on May 8, good for 8 points; 6th of 199 on May 15, for 7 points; and 13th of 364 on Feb. 6, also 7 points.<br />
<br />
That's pretty damn good for just 11 entries. <br />
<br />
Here's the top 10:<br />
<br />
<b>Player (Points/Entries=Rating)</b><br />
1. <b>Edward Enborg, Jacksonville FL</b> (32/11=2.91)<br />
2. <b>James Riley, Mansfield, MA</b> (22/10=2.20)<br />
3. <b>Samuel DeCicco, Kingston NY</b> (20/10=2.00) <br />
4. <b>Bernard Reilly, Fair Haven NJ</b> (17/9=1.89)<br />
5. <b>Dan Shugar, Los Angeles CA</b> (22/12=1.83)<br />
6. <b>Michael Doheny, Bronxville, NY </b>(16/9=1.78)<br />
7. <b>Craig Hom, San Francisco, CA</b> (21/12=1.75)<br />
8. <b>Eliot Honaker, Lexington KY</b> (26/15=1.73)<br />
9. <b>Robert Gianquitti, Lake Worth, FL</b> (27/16=1.69)<br />
10. <b>Jonathon Kinchen, Austin, TX</b> (20/13=1.54)<br />
<br />
And the full rankings of the 132 people who have played at least 9 NHCQualify entries this year, and finished in the top 10% at least once:<br />
<br />
<iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ARtftzAMajk8_L2ohvCqmHw5x_YsviPGcBZDw1uOrKs/pubhtml?gid=947671824&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" style="width: 100%;"></iframe>
<br />
Lastly, let's look at the 'Cyberstars' of the NHC. How do the top-ranked NHCQualify players, as per NTRA, stack up in the highly egalitarian NHCQualify Player Ratings?<br />
<br />
The answer is, not great. Here are the top 10 Cyberstars:<br />
<br />
<b>Player (NHCQ/Cyberstars Points) (NHCQualify Player Ranking) </b><br />
1. Joseph Costello (9,649) (27th)<br />
2. Kenneth McMahan (8,475) (28th)<br />
3. George Chute (8,423) (11th)<br />
4. Kevin Engelhard (7,891) (38th)<br />
5. Geoffrey Schutt (7,815) (21st)<br />
6. Eric Moomey (7,518) (26th)<br />
7. Joe Pettit (7,283) (44th)<br />
8. Robert Gianquitti (7,224) (9th)<br />
9. Tanya Taylor (7,195) (41st)<br />
10.Robert Gilbert (6,469) (61st)<br />
<br />
Robert Gianquitti is the only Cyberstar with a top-10 NHCQualify Player Rating. George Chute is a strong 11th.<br />
<br />
But the rest of the top 10 Cyberstars' player ratings are fair to middling, certainly nothing to write home about. The common denominator is that they have played a lot of entries -- 30+ for a number of them -- which elevates their standing in the Cyberstars competition.
Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-90922602992685158812016-04-02T07:07:00.000-07:002018-03-01T12:24:16.569-08:00Introducing NHCQualify Player Ratings The PGA Tour has <a href="http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.186.html" target="_blank">World Golf Rankings</a>. Tennis has <a href="http://www.tennis.com/rankings/ATP/" target="_blank">ATP Tour Rankings</a>.<br />
<br />
The NFL has <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr" target="_blank">Quarterback Ratings</a>. The NBA has <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics" target="_blank">Player Efficiency Ratings</a>. Baseball has a <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type=%27S%27&season=2016&season_type=ANY&league_code=%27MLB%27&sectionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1459517695683" target="_blank">host of stats</a> including On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, and good ol' fashioned Batting Average.<br />
<br />
Which NHC Tour data point(s) similarly rank players based primarily on quality of play, rather than quantity of play?<br />
<br />
Well...er...ah...umm...uh, there really aren't any.<br />
<br />
Until now.<br />
<br />
Red Rock or Bust is pleased to introduce NHCQualify Player Ratings, which grades players based on quality of play, i.e. counting successes as well as failures. In other words, <i>viva la denominator</i>!<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUPbVXBjR631DJByrBEPW1jRvAa_i6yDYbGCD57QR8HkMZRskQb4Vw_YqofHI9fAG0cTTRGYHCwqLbJbvAxt4j4NnZ9bUPvlvJjCscz7w_3yeDjA1TVhrThiywRcWVhXJcsrCZxBBpTf0/s1600/fract.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUPbVXBjR631DJByrBEPW1jRvAa_i6yDYbGCD57QR8HkMZRskQb4Vw_YqofHI9fAG0cTTRGYHCwqLbJbvAxt4j4NnZ9bUPvlvJjCscz7w_3yeDjA1TVhrThiywRcWVhXJcsrCZxBBpTf0/s1600/fract.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
Look, the <a href="http://www.ntra.com/nhc/leaders/" target="_blank">NHC Leaderboard</a> serves its purpose as far as rewarding the top NHC Tour point earners with cash prizes and NHC seats. But as tour operator, DRF/NTRA has a vested interest in getting players to pony up cash to play contests, so not surprisingly, its ranking system rewards brute force, as <i>quantity</i> of play is more important than <i>quality</i> of play. Granted, only a player's top six finishes count, but if you play 10 or 20 contest entries over the course of the year, do you stand a chance against the person who plays 60 entries?<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx8jpyM5Vsw" target="_blank">Not bloody likely</a>.<br />
<br />
Enter NHCQualify player ratings, which is RedRockorBust's humble attempt to address the situation. <br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Methodology</span></b><br />
<br />
I kept the methodology sensible, simple and straightforward.<br />
<br />
So far this year, nine NHCQualify.com contests have awarded seats for the 2017 National Handicapping Championship -- 1/30, 2/6, 2/13, 2/20, 2/27, 3/5, 3/12, 3/19, and 3/26.<br />
<br />
In each of these contests, I awarded players 10 points for a top 1% finish, 9 points for a top 2% finish, 8 points for a top 3% finish....on down to 2 points for a top 9% finish, and 1 point for a top 10% finish.<br />
<br />
Players who qualified for the NHC in a given contest received a +3 bonus on top of that. <br />
<br />
A player's total number of points earned is divided by the total number of entries played to derive the NHCQualify Player Rating.<br />
<br />
It ain't rocket science.<br />
<br />
Players must have played at least 20% of the total NHCQualify contest entries to be rated. The 9 contests so far each allowed 2 entries for a maximum total entry number of 18, so the minimum number of entries to be rated is 4 (18*0.2=3.6). <br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Jim Sebes Leads After 1Q</span></b><br />
<br />
Kudos to <b>Jim Sebes of Hillsborough, New Jersey</b>, whose 4.4 rating leads all NHCQualify players at the conclusion of 2016's first quarter.<br />
<br />
Sebes won the 291-player Feb. 20 contest, qualifying for the 2017 NHC in the process, and most importantly, earned 13 (10+3) rating points for his effort. He added 9 points by finishing 4th in the 245-person March 19 contest.<br />
<br />
A handful of players have earned more points than Sebes' 22, but Jim is the highest-rated of 'em all because he has made his mark in limited attempts -- just 5 entries.<br />
<br />
22/5 = 4.4. <br />
<br />
<b>James Riley of Mansfield, Massachusetts</b> is #2, with an NHCQualify Player Rating of 3.67. His 22 points matched Sebes, but he has played one more entry. <b>Howard Yancovitch of Montreal</b> is 3rd, 21/6 = 3.5.<br />
<br />
Here's the top 10:<br />
<br />
<b>Player (Points/Entries=Rating) </b> <br />
1. <b>Jim Sebes</b>, Hillsborough NJ (22/5=4.4) <br />
2. <b>James Riley</b>, Mansfield MA (22/6=3.67) <br />
3. <b>Howard Yancovitch</b>, Montreal (21/6=3.5)<br />
4. <b>Jim Covello</b>, New Providence NJ (16/5=3.2)<br />
T5. <b>Michael Tomatz</b>, Minneapolis MN (12/4=3.0)<br />
T5. <b>Peter Rotondo</b>, New York NY (12/4=3.0)<br />
7. <b>Edward Enborg</b>, Jacksonville FL (17/6=2.83)<br />
8. <b>Cory Hodskins</b>, Lexington KY (11/4=2.75)<br />
T9.<b> Joe Maneen Jr.</b>, Haverhill, MA (13/5=2.6)<br />
T9.<b> Eliot Honaker</b>, Lexington KY (26/10=2.6)<br />
<br />
And the full rankings of the 139 NHCQualify players who have played at least four entries and registered at least one top 10% finish:<br />
<br />
<iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ARtftzAMajk8_L2ohvCqmHw5x_YsviPGcBZDw1uOrKs/pubhtml?gid=781570092&single=true&widget=true&headers=false"></iframe>
<br />
Note there are plenty of folks who haven't hit the top 10% this year, so while William R. of Utica, NY may be the lowest-rated point earner, sing no sad songs, as he's ahead of all those who have goose-egged in 2016.<br />
<br />
(Also note that while the embedded spreadsheet seems totally navigable on desktop, it doesn't seem to work too well on mobile. Or maybe I'm just an idiot who can't figure out how to do it.) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">But Wait, Before You Go...</span></b><br />
<br />
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention a few caveats to the NHCQualify Player Ratings.<br />
<br />
1. The numbers do not present a full picture of NHC Tour play -- it's NHCQualify Player Ratings, not NHC Tour Player Ratings. I calculated the former rather than the latter simply because NHCQualify shows full historical results from previous contests.<br />
<br />
A low-rated NHCQ player might be killin' it on other contest site(s) and/or at live events, just as a high-rated player here could be striking out elsewhere. This is just one part of the picture. <br />
<br />
2. I'm not sure my formula is perfect. I think it's sensible and simple, but maybe there's a better way. I'm open for suggestions to that end.<br />
<br />
3. I'm 98-99% confident in the accuracy of my data. I automated much of the spreadsheet slicing and dicing of sorting and cross-referencing, but I still had to key in some manual entries, and I was bleary-eyed at times. Also, IDK if NHCQualify changes things in terms of when people move or not, so for example if John S. of New York, NY turned into John S. of Chicago, IL during the quarter, I missed that.<br />
<br />
I'm happy to correct any errors that are drawn to my attention.<br />
Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-58522438006214766352015-11-30T10:32:00.001-08:002017-08-14T08:06:04.966-07:003 Ways to Improve the NHC TourI haven't been much for weighing in on the NHC Tour in this lonely outpost of cyberspace, mainly because I never qualified for the NHC in any previous year. So offering my 2c would have been like my alma mater <a href="http://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball/index.ssf/2015/11/how_many_games_will_the_rutgers_mens_basketball_te.html" target="_blank">Rutgers</a> offering unsolicited advice to the NCAA regarding the format of March Madness.<br />
<b><br /></b>
But this year, finally, <a href="http://www.monmouthpark.com/news.aspx?id=9802" target="_blank">I'm in baby</a>. So I figure that allows me to opine on what I see and offer a few constructive suggestions.<br />
<br />
Plus, in all likelihood this will be my only blog post of 2015, so I thought I would make it count, rather than just rehashing my own personal contesting situation. <br />
<br />
So without further ado, I recommend that the DRF/NTRA...<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="font-size: medium;">Add More 'Tour' to the NHC Tour</span></b><br />
<br />
The <a href="http://www.ntra.com/en/nhc/nhc-tour-schedule/" target="_blank">NHC Tour</a> which I believe has been around for 6-7 years or so was a great idea and it has boosted interest in the NHC, but it has not realized its potential. <br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOJGRVNnJzYahak8DPQomMFU5sBzgSmqo9oSmSGkULeZIXMAnTPqrOAqdcyv_Imj0xmnu7ZT_Qztfpv6qh1v4qqQBNMm3EK0LlVjShrNJeMMfq6FpVHzqBHx1P5nEiqDqOtm_GcVjEU3g/s1600/tourbus1a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOJGRVNnJzYahak8DPQomMFU5sBzgSmqo9oSmSGkULeZIXMAnTPqrOAqdcyv_Imj0xmnu7ZT_Qztfpv6qh1v4qqQBNMm3EK0LlVjShrNJeMMfq6FpVHzqBHx1P5nEiqDqOtm_GcVjEU3g/s320/tourbus1a.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Reserved seating for Kinchen, Moomey, and Flanders </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<a href="http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/tour" target="_blank">Dictionary.com defines tour</a> as <i><span class="oneClick-link">'a</span> <span class="oneClick-link oneClick-available">traveling</span> <span class="oneClick-link">around</span> <span class="oneClick-link">from</span> <span class="oneClick-link">place</span> <span class="oneClick-link">to</span> <span class="oneClick-link oneClick-available">place'</span></i>, and this is where the NHC Tour underperforms.<br />
<br />
The tour offers seats mostly through online events, and there are also brick-and-mortar contests at 18 North American racetracks. That's not a horrible number at face value, but cross-referencing the DRF.com <a href="http://www1.drf.com/racing_links/links_tracks.html" target="_blank">list of thoroughbred racetracks</a> with the NHC Tour tracks shows that the following tracks were <i>not</i> represented in 2015: <br />
<br />
Charles Town <br />
Churchill Downs<br />
Delaware Park<br />
Delta Downs<br />
Ellis Park<br />
Emerald Downs<br />
Evangeline Downs<br />
Finger Lakes<br />
Golden Gate <br />
Hoosier Park<br />
Indiana Downs<br />
Laurel<br />
Louisiana Downs<br />
Oaklawn Park<br />
Penn National<br />
Parx<br />
Pimlico<br />
Presque Isle<br />
Remington<br />
Sunland Park<br />
Tampa Bay Downs<br />
Turf Paradise<br />
Turfway Park<br />
<br />
That's at least 23 tracks absent from the NHC Tour, which exceeds the number of tracks that are on the tour.<br />
<br />
As I understand it, the issue is money. The no-show tracks aren't NTRA member tracks, which mean they would have to pay through the nose for an NHC seat, so they say thanks but no thanks. <br />
<br />
But there's gotta be a compromise here, in the interest of the greater
good. Can't the NTRA offer a fair deal for non-member tracks to offer just 1
seat per year at a live event? Not a giveaway, but a fair deal in which both sides give some. The tracks would benefit because of the additional handle on contest
days; the NHC would benefit by bringing in new players; local players
benefit by having a live option; out-of-town NHC <i>Tour</i> members would have other tracks to possibly <i>tour</i>. Win-win-win-win.<br />
<br />
From my New Jersey home base, there are about 6-7 tracks on my no-show list that are a reasonable drive away, and at least a few other tracks could be intriguing possibilities to tie in a contest as part of a general leisure trip. My pal NJHorseplayer is often up for an adventure -- heck <a href="http://www.njhorseplayer.com/2015/11/a-lone-star-state-of-mind.html" target="_blank">he's flying to Lone Star this coming Saturday</a> -- and I'm sure other players would be amenable to hitting the road to some new places in the quest for an NHC seat. <br />
<br />
It would be tremendous if the NHC Tour could bring 12-15 new tracks into the fold. 10 would be great. Heck, adding even a half dozen would meaningfully bolster the schedule and make the tour more of a tour.<br />
<br />
Come on NTRA folks. I'd find it hard to believe that the benefit of expanding the bricks-and-mortar NHC Tour would be less than the costs associated with making some concessions to non-member tracks to make it happen. <br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: medium;">Help the Middle Class</span></b><br />
<br />
The NHC Tour deck is stacked in the favor of the biggest players.<br />
<br />
I'd go as far as positing that<i> the single biggest determinant of whether one qualifies for the NHC is frequency of qualifying-contest play</i>. Handicapping ability, contest skill, and luck rank 2, 3 and 4, in my opinion.<br />
<br />
It's even more the case when it comes to NHC Tour points. If you plan on qualifying for the NHC via finishing in the top 150, you need to play a lot of contests to be competitive. If you don't play very many contests, you really have to thread the needle in an improbable way, i.e. do very well (without qualifying directly) in a high percentage of the contests that you do play. And forget about winning prize money by finishing near the top of the points standings, as aspiring for that without being a heavy player is like bringing a <a href="http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/g138/4322164/?slide=2" target="_blank">1970s-style squirt gun</a> to a <a href="http://nerf.hasbro.com/en-us/toys-games/nerf:super-soaker" target="_blank">Super Soaker</a> fight. <br />
<br />
But, <i>I get it</i>.<br />
<br />
Hotels give free nights to regular guests. Stock exchanges rebate high-frequency traders. Credit-card
companies give more rewards to the biggest spenders. I could go on. <br />
<br />
An enterprise <i>should</i> reward its best customers. <br />
<br />
So I'm not here to whinge about the NHC's non-level playing field. In a perfect world, the NHC Tour would rank players based more on quality of play than on quantity of play, but ours is an imperfect world, it ain't gonna happen, and I'm not gonna go there.<br />
<br />
But, I do recommend one simple, elegant and eminently sensible tweak that would tip the NHC tour scale at least a token smidge back toward equilibrium. This would help the middle class (always an attractive cause heading into an election year), which is up against it vs. the heavies.<br />
<br />
Here's my plan:<br />
<br />
Add a few seats (IDK maybe 10? Five? At least three) for middle-class NHC Tour members. <i>I define middle-class NHC Tour members as those who play at least 10, but no more than 25, non-free, point-awarding contests over the course of the year.</i> <br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil3hiK8IqAUXHiLfWt7huIw0ZrcBe-quj5kGv5lbeoU29gJdLu5r4xFN_V3gbJjKujzwceOugAx2SAlYWXE6PuivySIrh__LtNl2AjQgSIkCUjiJ-yIU61XvJ-QJiLDMKvjDOvt3oOgP0/s1600/360_middle_class_0226.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil3hiK8IqAUXHiLfWt7huIw0ZrcBe-quj5kGv5lbeoU29gJdLu5r4xFN_V3gbJjKujzwceOugAx2SAlYWXE6PuivySIrh__LtNl2AjQgSIkCUjiJ-yIU61XvJ-QJiLDMKvjDOvt3oOgP0/s320/360_middle_class_0226.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A chicken, and an NHC seat, in every pot</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Score by dividing the middle-class player's NHC Tour points by the number of contest entries he/she played. Simple as that.<br />
<br />
For example, say I earn 3,000 points along the way of playing 15 contests in a given year. I would have have 200 middle-class (MC) points.<br />
<br />
Someone else has 3,500 points over 20 contests, that's 175 MC points. Yet another player has 4,000 points over 10 events -- 400 MC points.<br />
<br />
The top (insert # here) MC scorers at the end of the NHC Tour year go to the NHC.<br />
<br />
Note this qualifying route would award 1st NHC seats only, i.e. if an MC player qualifies directly through a contest, he/she becomes ineligible for an MC seat. <br />
<br />
I gotta say, I love this idea. Seats are now awarded through 'rookie' contests which is a nice addition
to the tour; in the same spirit, shouldn't there be something that
helps the middle class, i.e. the folks who do NHC stuff as a casual hobby but don't play every weekend? <br />
<br />
How about it NTRA? <br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: medium;">Cap the NHC</span></b><br />
<br />
When I launched RedRockorBust dot blogspot dot com in 2009, I think the NHC had about 320 players. A few years later, it was close to 500. The 2015 version, which I believe was the first NHC that allowed two entries per player, had north of 600 entries. I was surprised at that last jump, as I thought 500 made a lot of sense as a stopping point. <br />
<br />
I recently checked with Michele Ravencraft over at the NTRA -- she said there were 601 entries at the Jan. 2015 NHC, and about 625 entries are expected this coming January. <br />
<br />
Look, I understand that growth of the NHC and NHC Tour is a good thing for all parties. But at the same time, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhqqAUh1VPU" target="_blank">when everybody plays, nobody wins</a>. The NHC field has doubled over the past six years, and while still navigable at current levels, it's pushing the bounds of unwieldiness. Doubling it again over the next six years would result in an NHC that is more of a lottery-ticket proposition than a handicapping contest.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Is this the 2025 NHC?</td></tr>
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I don't think anyone wants that.<br />
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My suggestion is twofold: in the short term (say for the next couple years), cap the number of entries at 650.<br />
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For the longer term, say three to five years out, articulate a vision as to what the field size will be. Is it meant to be about what it is now? Or is the plan to start ascending towards 1,000 entries? If the latter, how will it be managed so that it retains the ethos of a handicapping contest rather than 'de-evolving' into something more akin to an online free-for-all. <br />
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As I mentioned, I was taken aback by the >600 number from Jan. 2015 -- unless I missed something, I don't believe this bump was communicated in the e-mail blasts to the masses. If there are more material step-ups planned, I think it should be spelled out in advance.<br />
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Okay, that's all I got. Use it in good health.<br />
<br />
Perhaps I'll come up with three more ideas for next year's blog post. <br />
<b> </b>Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-67552575564943887622014-04-24T19:08:00.001-07:002014-04-25T05:59:17.922-07:005.26 Percent<br />
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<br />
I'll be competing in Monmouth Park's <a href="http://monmouthpark.com/event_detail.aspx?id=7997" target="_blank">Simulcast Series Challenge Invitational </a>on Saturday, luckily with two entries. Nicole Lince of Monmouth Park told me of the 80 entries signed on for Saturday, 76 are NHC Tour members -- the top 2 finishers who are NHC Tour members qualify for Vegas, so that puts my chances at 2 * (2/76), or 5.26%.<br />
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The good news is, 1/19 is a heckuva lot better than the ~1/60 shot that you get in most online contests, and there's no entry fee -- each entry is $200 live bankroll only. The not-so-good news is, the chance is still slim city, as there's almost a 95% chance that come Saturday evening, I'll be telling my sob story to anyone within earshot. <br />
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<span style="color: black; font-family: inherit;">I'm happy to have two entries, but in general it's really not my thing and I can't recall ever playing two entries in the decade+ I've been playing contests. I understand a double entry gives you a better chance, but in my opinion there are some factors pertaining to strategy and decision making that complicate things. So when the cost is double but both the chance of winning and the enjoyment increase by less than double, flying solo is an easy decision for this budget-conscious contest player.</span></div>
<br />
That means Sat. will be uncharted territory in terms of how I play the two entries.<br />
<br />
I was first thinking I'd play one entry normally (i.e. methodical, mostly minimum $20 bets with only moderate risk-taking through early and mid-afternoon, hoping to be in with a chance late in the day)<br />
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and the other entry with some kind of risky hell-bent-for-leather strategy, say perhaps $200W on an 8-1 shot or something, or maybe play only $100 or $50 bets on this ticket. This way I'd have some chance to hit a big score early and be in front, but if I lost (most likely scenario), I'd still have the other entry to play as usual.<br />
<br />
But while this strategy holds some appeal, and if I had a third entry I absolutely would play one like this, I'm now leaning toward a more conservative approach. This is certainly subject to change, but I'm thinking I'll play both entries in the same methodical, slow-early, hopefully-fast-late fashion. I'll play the same horse on both entries maybe a few times (i.e. my strongest calls); play more tepid calls on one entry only (though I'm not sure which one -- this to me is the biggest strategic challenge in having two entries); and in the instances when say I dislike a chalk but I can't decide between two alternatives, I'll play one on each entry. <br />
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Assuming a best-case scenario of a few wins over the course of the afternoon, this strategy can have me in contention late in the day on both tickets, allowing me to swing on both.<br />
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Of course I'll need to have a very good handicapping day with at least a few decent-priced winners to have a shot at finishing in the top 2, but I'm thinking with the approach I outlined, I'll have at least some margin for error. If a couple of my core plays come in I can still win even if a key decision or two doesn't go my way, whereas with one entry, there's that much less margin for error.<br />
<br />
With the risk-on approach of big early bets, my chances are certainly increased versus having only one entry, but they're increased in more of a random or lucky sense rather than a sound strategic sense. (If that makes any sense.)<br />
<br />
Anyway, just some musings a day and a half before Saturday's first post. Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-52250127909116727942014-03-16T11:59:00.002-07:002014-03-17T13:05:08.699-07:00Luck o' the Irish<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Monmouth Park food is hardly magically delicious -- but I got friggin lucky in SSC3</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
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I'm as likely as the next guy to moan about bad trips, tough beats, capricious stewards and the countless other vagaries that can befall a horseplayer.<br />
<br />
But sometimes things just go your way. Exhibit A of plain ol' dumb luck was my experience at yesterday's <a href="http://monmouthpark.com/News.aspx?id=8147">Simulcast Series Challenge 3 </a>at Monmouth Park.<br />
<br />
I finished 7th of 298 contestants with a $681 bankroll. That plus $447 in prize money netted out to a +$900-and-change day, plus a second seat in next month's <a href="http://monmouthpark.com/event_detail.aspx?id=7997" target="_blank">SSC Invitational</a>. <br />
<br />
I have only <a href="http://racingwithbruno.com/index.html" target="_blank">Bruno</a>'s workout reports to thank, really. My handicapping for this SSC series has been a three-legged stool of sorts: (listed in no particular order) Bruno's workout reports for the Gulfstream card; my own proprietary (patent pending) trainer-recency angle, which I find tends to work best at Tampa; and old-fashioned perusal of DRF past performances. But yesterday, the second two legs were essentially no-shows, leaving me with Bruno, who thankfully killed it with good skinny on Hot and Spicy, who won GP3 at 13-1 (I had $10W, $5P) , and Little Daddy, who won GP8 at 16-1 ($10W).<br />
<br />
Fast forward to 5:45 pm, when there were two races left. I had a $274.50 bankroll after winning on H&S and LD but losing on 10 other bets, spanning six of the $10 variety, plus 2 $15s, 1 $20, and 1 $40 (Gamay Noir in Tam9).<br />
<br />
I liked Centre Court in GP10 based largely on Bruno's info. I wasn't crazy about the 3-1 price but I figured it was just good enough. So I slapped down $174W, figuring if she lost I would have a Ben for a spec play in the finale.<br />
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Centre Court got an okayish trip before being fanned 7 wide into the stretch while making her move. She got the lead and barely, barely held on in a photo finish that was about as close as it could be without it being a dead heat. (Unfortunately the photo went the wrong way for not <a href="http://www.publichandicapper.com/" target="_blank">one</a> but <a href="http://www.jerseycapper.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">two</a> contest brethren.)<br />
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In the last race I went $100W on 6-1 Gratitude, who opened up a too-long lead and burned out and finished 4th. The 6-1 Pletcher/Castellano winner was very playable but I probably liked it 3rd best, c'est la vie. I would have loved to bang up into the top 5 where the real money is, but I was more than happy staying in 8th.<br />
<br />
So that was that, at the time I figured I had a reasonably (but not especially) lucky day with some good handicapping. After a lovely home-cooked meal of corned beef and cabbage with the <a href="http://www.njhorseplayer.com/" target="_blank">NJHorseplayer</a> clan, I headed north to Essex County.<br />
<br />
It was only when I was home and reviewing stuff from the day that I realized just how lucky I was. The startling revelation was that Centre Court <a href="https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/status/444966518942478336/photo/1" target="_blank">broke through the gate</a> before the race. I TOTES missed that, as I guess I was chatting or somesuch. I'm a big believer in canceling bets when pre-race shenanigans happen, whether it be significant reluctance to load, or a jockey toss, or a gate break-through. Stuff like that just expends physical and mental energy needed for the race (someone who goes by o_crunk tweeted "Cheers to Centre Court for winning after breaking thru gate.
Unscientific study of horses breaking thru gate last 24 mos - 22/402
$0.52 ROI"). And Centre Court's trainer even said post-race that his horses never run well after breaking through the gate.<br />
<br />
So, I should have caught the gate break-through, and I should have ran up to cancel the bet. But because I missed it, the bet stood, and the bet won. I was essentially rewarded for not paying attention.<br />
<br />
Now THAT is lucky. <br />
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<br />Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-57988137931718996112014-02-21T08:23:00.001-08:002014-02-21T10:18:44.015-08:00GoodnessI had a good day this past Sunday at Monmouth Park's <a href="http://monmouthpark.com/News.aspx?id=8076" target="_blank">Simulcast Series Challenge #2</a>. I goosed my $100 starting bankroll into $332 by day's end, good for a $132 net profit, 15th place (of 274 entrants), and a berth in April's<a href="http://monmouthpark.com/event_detail.aspx?id=7997" target="_blank"> SSC Invitational</a>, which qualifies 2 of 80 for the NHC.<br />
<br />
It was a good day (for a change), not a great day.<br />
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<br />
I went 5-for-15 in my wagers, and while I had no bombs to speak of (there weren't really any on the day), each was reasonably priced. My often-trusty trainer-recency angle helped land me on Bico Blanco, who paid $17.40 in Calder's 5th race; Quelch, who $11.80 in Tampa 6; and Chief Redneck, who paid $8.60 to place in Tampa 10. <a href="http://www.racingwithbruno.com/" target="_blank">Bruno's workout report</a> pointed me to Straight Town, who paid $19.60 in Gulfstream 9, and just some straightforward handicapping of a turf-route-to-dirt-sprint led me to Cowgirl Spirit, who paid $14.40 in Tampa 3.<br />
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My winners were spaced out so I was banging around the lower end of the 25-person leaderboard for most of the afternoon. My first 12 bets were of the $10W variety, before I hung a little fire with a $20WP bet on Chief Redneck. My luck was pretty decent, as aside from a missed break or two I saw generally clean trips, and Quelch actually finished 2nd but was the beneficiary of a disqualification that could have gone either way. (Unfortunately the DQ hurt my neighbor Paul Zerbst, who co-owned Onto Luck, the <a href="http://articles.philly.com/1995-03-04/sports/25702077_1_dakota-s-trick-rick-wilson-da-hoss" target="_blank">1995 Cherry Hill Mile runner-up</a>.) <br />
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So heading into the last contest race, I had $342 and was in 15th place, a few hundred bucks or so away from getting paid (top 10 finish), and at some risk of falling out of the top 20. What to do? GP11 was a 13-horse field of maiden turfers, so it was wide wide open. I didn't have any real conviction, but of course when I looked I found some interesting stuff. Among others I liked Cinnamon Spice, a first-time starter trained by Chad Brown who went off at 16-1, as well as Lusaka, a seemingly safer Pletcher-Velazquez debuter who went off at about half those odds.<br />
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I typically go for broke in last-race situations, so my first inclination was to put down $150, or maybe even my whole bankroll of wax, on Cinn Spice or Lusaka. But I thought long and hard about it, and I did want to stay in the top 20, so I backed off. I ended up putting just $10P on Cinn Spice, kind of a weird bet but I guess I was thinking if he placed it would give me a few shekels. Cinn Spice ran decently but could manage only a non-threatening 3rd, and Lusaka did nothing.<br />
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You don't often root against your horse, but looking back maybe I should have, as the worst outcome probably would have been Cinn Spice winning at a $35.40 mutuel, which would have meant I missed an opportunity to win a contest by going conservative and turtling. But luckily things worked out okay, and I was happy to get out of there on the plus side, with an invitational berth in my back pocket, and without any haunting regret.<br />
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<br />Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-69140074562886039742013-01-08T13:11:00.000-08:002013-01-08T13:11:38.312-08:00What Up Wit the NHC? Q&A with NTRA's Keith Chamblin<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(Photo forthcoming)</td></tr>
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The <a href="http://www.ntra.com/en/nhc/" target="_blank">Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship</a> will be held in Las Vegas later this month. I won't be there for the umpteenth consecutive year due to tough luck, bad breaks, a limited budget, and general ineptitude (not necessarily in that order), but I wanted to get an update on the state of the NHC and the NHC Tour. Keith Chamblin, senior vice president of the NTRA, was kind enough to answer my questions via e-mail.<br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Red Rock or Bust</b>: Assess the current state of the NHC Tour.<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Keith Chamblin</b>: Overall, the Tour is strong. Prize money offered from the NTRA doubled from 2011 to 2012 to $250,000. Bonuses were added to reward multiple winners. Some 1,000 players earned points in 2012. Nearly 4,500 players competed. Based on research and feedback from players and participating host sites, the Tour absolutely has led to increased participation in the NHC. I wish we had even greater participation by fans and racetracks, but overall we feel that the NHC Tour has been a very positive addition to the NHC landscape since it was instituted in 2008.<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>RRoB</b>: How has the 2012 NHC Tour season (not counting the Jan. 2012 NHC itself) compared with 2011 and also previous years in terms of interest, number of contests, revenue, etc?<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>KC</b>: We instituted a number of changes to the Tour in 2012. Total prize money was more than doubled to nearly $300,000. The Tour calendar was divided into two seasons. Significant bonuses were instituted for players who win more than one tournament. A tiered points system was instituted to encourage on-track tournament play. We’re still analyzing the numbers, but it’s fair to say that participation is up, the number of contests is up, total prize money is up, and revenue is up vs. 2011. <u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>RRoB</b>: How is the Jan. 2013 NHC shaping up? What will be new/different compared with last year's event?<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>KC</b>: The biggest change at this year’s NHC is the addition of a “Best Bet” wager, whereby one mandatory play each day will count double. We think this will introduce a unique variable that will add another layer of excitement to the NHC.<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>RRoB</b>: What are the challenges/opportunities involved with getting broader media coverage of the event?<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>KC</b>: The challenges and opportunities involved with obtaining broader media coverage of the NHC are similar to the challenges we face in obtaining broader coverage of thoroughbred racing in general. We have a great sport with beautiful equine athletes and a passionate fan base, but we are a niche sport compared to sports like baseball, football and basketball. That makes it difficult to attract mainstream media coverage. However, we are making strides. The NHC has been featured in Sports Illustrated, ESPN the Magazine, USA Today, the Washington Post and many other high-profile outlets over the years. We expect to add to that list this year. In some respects, we have better luck with mainstream media coverage than we do with coverage inside our industry. I’d like to see us celebrate the horseplayer more than we currently do.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>RRoB</b>: What changes/improvements (if any) are planned for the NHC Tour?<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>KC</b>: Stay tuned. We are considering a number of changes that we will be announcing in the near future.<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>RRoB</b>: Are you considering increasing the number of players who qualify via NHC Tour points, to make that more meaningful? Currently it's the Top 100 but the vast majority of the top 100 already qualified via a contest. <u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>KC</b>: </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Possibly. Several years ago, there were no players who qualified based on their year-end points totals on the leader board. Now, the top 100 players are guaranteed entry into the NHC regardless of whether they win a spot in a tournament. This year, eight people qualified based on finishing in the top 100.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>RRoB</b>: </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">There has been some criticism among players that the NHC Tour favors the most regular (and better-funded) players, not necessarily the best players. How do you respond to this?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>KC</b>: Great question. There will be plenty of regulars and plenty of casual fans at the NHC. Almost by definition, a “tour” (be it in golf, tennis, handicapping or any type) is going to favor those who make the commitment to “travel” on it. There is no question that there is a core group of players who play frequently. They also contribute a large amount of revenue to the NHC prize pool. However, with the expansion of online play, the addition of more free tournaments, and the emphasis we’ve placed on trying to maintain and grow on-track tournaments, there is a wide menu of tournament offerings for a variety of players. Plus, only the top six tournament scores count toward Tour points. We like to think that there are ample opportunities for players of any budget and commitment level.<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>RRoB</b>: There has been some criticism among players regarding a perceived lack of transparency on the part of the NHC Tour with regard to its finances. Specifically, online qualifying contests have comparatively high effective 'take' rates and some say it's not clear where all the money goes. How do you respond to this?<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>KC</b>: Some online and on-track tournaments have a higher take-out than others. Some have zero takeout. Players can make choices on which tournaments they wish to play in much the same way they decide which races or tracks they like to bet on when they play the horses. For each spot sold to an onsite location/tourney, a total of $3,333 goes toward the NHC and NHC Tour prize pool. The number is closer to $6,500 for online tournaments. There also are variances between what NTRA members and non-members pay. In principle, we like low- or zero-takeout qualifiers better, but plenty of players have told us they’d prefer to absorb more takeout in an online tournament in exchange for the added convenience and reduced travel expense. Obviously the market ultimately dictates a tournament’s popularity. If players see no value in a tournament, they won’t play it.<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>RRoB</b>: Will NTRA lobby for New Jersey-based players to be able to play venues such as TwinSpires, rather than be captive to the state ADW?<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>KC</b>: We only get involved in state legislative advocacy efforts if we are invited in by the tracks and horsemen in that specific jurisdiction.<u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>RRoB</b>: </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Please mention anything else that I didn't specifically ask about that is pertinent to this conversation.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>KC</b>: We truly appreciate the players’ support of the NHC and NHC Tour over the past 13 years, and we are continuously impressed by the people who qualify for the NHC each year. Nothing could more quickly dispel the tired, old stereotype of the “degenerate horseplayer” than to have someone spend a half hour at the NHC. Ultimately it is the players who will determine the future level of success for this event, and so we take very seriously what they have to say. We strive to give them a pleasant and fun experience during the year as they attempt to qualify, and a really stimulating experience when they play for the big money in Las Vegas. It’s impossible to please everyone, but it is incumbent upon us to ensure that we are pleasing most. <u></u><u></u></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"> </span> </span>Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-15168202385796841572012-11-01T07:31:00.000-07:002012-11-03T08:02:02.307-07:00Want a FREE* $375,000?Steve Martin had an old stand-up routine that started with <br />
"You can have a million dollars and never pay taxes. <br />
You say to yourself, Steve (which is a funny thing to say to yourself), how can I have a million dollars and never pay taxes?<br />
First, get a million dollars..."<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcbVjj2IxD26DtnV5eM_dOcpr99QqyfxZbpefiwJHeHIbskJCPBqWSLYTrh8VaGRQUNZMUFzMrHOEf3V66ceAQtQybZa1Wa2UgwZNhb5VOONZYaURPgzPrZoQwu6qXLX6WXSytZ0Tl7Mg/s1600/Young-steve-martin-13561172-321-480.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcbVjj2IxD26DtnV5eM_dOcpr99QqyfxZbpefiwJHeHIbskJCPBqWSLYTrh8VaGRQUNZMUFzMrHOEf3V66ceAQtQybZa1Wa2UgwZNhb5VOONZYaURPgzPrZoQwu6qXLX6WXSytZ0Tl7Mg/s320/Young-steve-martin-13561172-321-480.jpg" width="214" /></a></div>
<br />
In that spirit, I invite (some of) you to participate in the Red Rock or Bust/HorseTourneys Free* Breeders' Cup Handicapping Contest, which could result in you winning $750,000 (and bringing home $375,000) in the DRF/NTRA 2013 National Handicapping Championship, to be held in Las Vegas in January. <br />
<br />
Here are the specs:<br />
<br />
Contest is open to all NHC Tour members <b>who have not yet qualified for 2013 NHC</b>.<br />
<br />
Minimum five players.<br />
<br />
You must make your selections in the comments section of this blog post by <b>2:00 PM</b> Eastern time on Saturday, November 3.<br />
<br />
This is a bit of a freeform contest -- simply submit your best six plays (plays=single horses) from Saturday's nine BC races, specifying one of the six as a best bet, and one of the six as an alternate. <br />
The horses may be from any BC Saturday race. You may select more than one from the same race. <br />
<br />
Each player gets a notional $4WP bet on his/her best bet, and $2WP on each of his/her other four non-alternate selections. The alternate will only be used in the event of a scratch and will always be a $2WP bet -- if your best bet is scratched, the first selection after the best bet will move up to be the best bet. In the event of more than one scratch, the post-time favorite will be used after the alternate.<br />
If a best bet and/or alternate is not specified, the first horse listed will be the best bet, and the last horse will be the alternate.(This contest is really simpler than I'm making it out to be, I'm just trying to cover all bases.)<br />
<br />
It's BC day, so let's go with high payout caps -- $75 to win ($150 for best bet) and $30 to place ($60 for best bet).<br />
<br />
The winner gets a credit to an upcoming $30 HorseTourneys contest (thanks to HorseTourneys for generously providing this purse). The credit must be used soon, as there aren't many weeks left to qualify for 2013 NHC, especially via HorseTourneys. <br />
<br />
If the winner advances to a $140 HorseTourneys contest through the $30 event (1/5 chance), and advances to 2013 NHC via the $140 event (1/60), my oh my won't that be a good story. And it gets better, as the final rule of Saturday's contest is that if the winner of Saturday's RRoB/HT contest gets to the 2013 NHC via this path and goes on to win the 2013 NHC (1/450ish chance), the winner must donate half of the pot (which is $750K I believe) to charity (seriously -- hence the $375K in the headline). Honor system. <br />
-----------<br />
So say we get five players on Saturday, add it all up and each player has a (1/5)*(1/5)*(1/60)*(1/450ish) chance of winning the NHC via this path. <br />
<br />
That may be microscopic but it's a lot better than the 0% chance you have if you don't play. Good luck! <br />
<br />
*This opportunity is "free" for those who have paid $50 to join the NHC Tour, so in good faith I had to asterisk the word.Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-23387651203083408892012-07-30T10:29:00.005-07:002012-07-30T11:39:34.147-07:00Rich Nilsen Wins Red Rock or Bust Handicapping Contest<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgbZx0WJH8WCnG78BD1aUAEXKJVESdI0BS-Ez0Fasa67NGmIt62MZIJjSjqUwfk5zk5GXnm0xBZCQs02Ld3yOF1RI2ncsNQrpFDSMW_jZCNFN7mFustx9uRgKLqpMXvEyg_jd29iRma9M/s1600/winning.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 225px; height: 225px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgbZx0WJH8WCnG78BD1aUAEXKJVESdI0BS-Ez0Fasa67NGmIt62MZIJjSjqUwfk5zk5GXnm0xBZCQs02Ld3yOF1RI2ncsNQrpFDSMW_jZCNFN7mFustx9uRgKLqpMXvEyg_jd29iRma9M/s320/winning.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5771020193625423714" /></a><br />Rich Nilsen parlayed winning selections of Flashy American at 8-1 and Alaura Michele at 6-1 to win Red Rock or Bust's inaugural handicapping contest, which was held on Sunday, July 29. <div><br /></div><div>Rich wins $20 for his troubles. Rich has already qualified for the 2013 NHC so he won't be winning it all via the very nontraditional Red Rock or Bust route, but he reports he will pass along the 20-spot for his wife Marta to take a crack at a HorseTourneys.com preliminary NHC feeder in the near future. They will keep us updated regarding progress (or lack thereof).</div><div><br /></div><div>The official final standings are:</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.agameofskill.com/">Rich Nilsen</a> $62.40</div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; ">FunkyMonkey 38.00<br />Donna 37.30<br /><a href="http://njhorseplayer.com/">NjHorseplayer</a> 23.90<br />Steve S. 11.30</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; "><br /></span></div><div>Rich, who calls Tarpon Springs, Florida home, was p<a href="http://redrockorbust.blogspot.com/2009/07/qualifier-q-rich-nilsen.html">reviously profiled</a> on Red Rock or Bust. He has qualified for the NHC nine times in the past and is the only person to finish in the top 10 twice, but he reported than winning Sunday's Red Rock or Bust contest was hands-down the highlight of his handicapping career (okay he didn't really say that, but he might be thinking it). </div>Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-27725353927142664232012-07-27T08:32:00.006-07:002012-07-27T15:49:51.329-07:00Announcing Red Rock or Bust's Free Handicapping Contest!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuXFEyxrYRUpiDdFCDLNEhHOlvZk_bJsoSKG4lSnePibP7_hYt8SWZXiFez9rC04KhzQTTN2EkgIwqKbzlO4LHCPL1GTr1M-nEHOX5H7NrlpuDRwA7HNDGj52_TKkl5gy1vtLieaRkQiA/s1600/nutty.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuXFEyxrYRUpiDdFCDLNEhHOlvZk_bJsoSKG4lSnePibP7_hYt8SWZXiFez9rC04KhzQTTN2EkgIwqKbzlO4LHCPL1GTr1M-nEHOX5H7NrlpuDRwA7HNDGj52_TKkl5gy1vtLieaRkQiA/s320/nutty.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5769877449612304930" /></a><br />I'm off the handicapping contest trail this weekend but I wanted to try something different and play contest venue rather than player.<div><br /></div><div>So I invite all NHC Tour members to play Red Rock or Bust's free handicapping contest.</div><div><br /></div><div>Here are the rules:</div><div><br /></div><div>-By 12 noon on Sunday July 29, post in the comments section your picks for each of the 11 Saratoga races to be run on Sunday July 29. One horse per race, $2WP notional bankroll, pick-and-pray format, you get the favorite in the event of a scratch, payouts capped at $50 for win and $20 for place. </div><div>-Minimum 3 players.</div><div>-Submit your picks as cleanly as possible, with numbers only, no names. </div><div>-The winner wins $20 (I will mail it to you). </div><div>-The winner must then use that $20 to enter a HorseTourneys.com NHC prelim feeder event in the near future. (honor system)</div><div>-Hopefully you will qualify for a HorseTourneys.com NHC qualifying contest via that NHC prelim feeder.</div><div>-If you do, hopefully you will qualify for the NHC via that NHC qualifying contest (OK, we're at about a 1/500 chance here, but stranger things have happened.)</div><div>-If you do qualify for the NHC via this route, and you just happen to win the NHC (can you say 1/250,000 chance?), you must give half your winnings to charity (honor system).(seriously).</div><div><br /></div><div>Good luck! </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-67139904680686001702012-07-20T07:38:00.013-07:002012-07-21T10:57:05.237-07:00What's an NHC Seat Worth?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_m1dpRQqWebUOH2pCnTnoa4PoG25r5iuU2N-HrCtn2-nydFIFmg0qC3HIw9RuEwafMxoN5JKnzApPdsCh0hQKZgRbClLdhYlO3IaGgfT4-HxU1_L6IyokbnYFql21RUQic25_U3T6V74/s1600/looking.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 168px; height: 168px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_m1dpRQqWebUOH2pCnTnoa4PoG25r5iuU2N-HrCtn2-nydFIFmg0qC3HIw9RuEwafMxoN5JKnzApPdsCh0hQKZgRbClLdhYlO3IaGgfT4-HxU1_L6IyokbnYFql21RUQic25_U3T6V74/s320/looking.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5767261539459751650" border="0" /></a>As a National Handicapping Championship aspirant, I've sometimes wondered what exactly is the value of this thing I'm chasing. I've seen various assertions of a seat's value, but generally they are unsupported and thereby unsatisfying, so I thought I'd take a closer look and crunch some numbers myself.<br /><div><br /></div><div>I'll start with the premise that the economic value of a NHC seat is simply the amount of the total pot divided by the number of players, which from what I understand is $1.5 million/500=$3,000.</div><div><br /></div><div>But HorseTourneys.com cites the value of an NHC seat at $6,500. When I asked McKay Smith about this via e-mail, he said </div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;" ><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;" ><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>"That's exactly what we pay the NTRA per seat. That's the standard pricing for the online sites that are <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>authorized to move NHC spots, such as ourselves, NHCQualify and Twinspires."</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;" ><br /></span></div><div>I then asked Michele Ravencraft of NTRA. She replied: </div><div><br /></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; "><p class="MsoNormal" style=" margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;"><span style=" ;font-family:Calibri, sans-serif;font-size:11pt;" ><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>"NTRA members pay $3333 per seat and non-members pay $6500 per seat. Most qualifiers also receive <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>free airfare and hotel in Las Vegas.<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style=" margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;"><span style=" ;font-family:Calibri, sans-serif;font-size:11pt;" ><br /></span></p></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family:Calibri, sans-serif;font-size:15px;" ><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>The value of a seat to a player is a more difficult to measure. Unlike the World Series of Poker, where <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>anyone can buy a seat for $10,000, a spot in the NHC must be earned through successful participation in a <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>qualifying tourney. To some, a seat is priceless. To others, it may be an investment of a certain amount of <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>dollars over the course of a year in an attempt to qualify. It varies by individual."</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-family:Calibri, sans-serif;font-size:15px;" > </span></div><div></div><div></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; "><p class="MsoNormal" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;"><span style=" color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-family:Calibri, sans-serif;font-size:11pt;" ><br /></span></p></span>When I followed up and asked about the discrepancy between my calculation of the economic value of the seat ($3K) and the $3333 and $6500 numbers, her reply was:</div><div><br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family:Calibri, sans-serif;font-size:15px;" ><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125); white-space: pre; ">"</span>There will be between 450-475 participants. More than 50 of those seats will be comped (part of the NTRA <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span>Tour, sponsorship agreements, etc.). NTRA pays for the airfare and hotel of the majority of qualifiers."</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; "><p class="MsoNormal" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;"><span style=" color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-family:Calibri, sans-serif;font-size:11pt;" ><u></u> </span></p></span></div><div>I appreciated the responses and the helpful information but I take any $6-7K estimates of a seat's value with a boulder of salt. That may be what an online site pays the NTRA, but that's a different animal than the value to the end player, which bottom-line remains an economic value, or $3,158-$3,333 based on the 450-475 player range NTRA told me. That begs the question of where exactly the additional money goes and where is the transparency, but I didn't expect answers to those questions so we'll call them rhetorical.</div><div><br /></div><div>What does all this pontificating mean? Well for the Joe Average NHC Tour players such as myself, some of the effective 'take' numbers for online contests aren't pretty. </div><div><br /></div><div>For example, the July 22 HorseTourneys.com NHC qualifier has a $195 ante -- 4 of 200 players qualify for Vegas (which includes hotel but not airfare), and 20 players receive $195 credit. Assuming a $3,333 economic value of an NHC seat and $500 for hotel, by my calculations the base economic value of an entry to the HorseTourneys event is $96.16 (total pot of [($3,333 + 500)* 4] + ($195 *20) = $19,232, divided by total number of players, 200).</div><div><br /></div><div>There is some but not much economic value to NHC Tour points that are awarded to the top 10% of finishers; I'll be generous and bump up my estimated economic value of a HorseTourneys entry by about 10% to $105. Even so, a $105 economic value on a $195 ante implies a takeout rate of 46% -- yeesh.</div><div><br /></div><div>The input numbers at NHCQualify.com are different, but notably the output (takeout rate) is virtually identical. $160 ante, 300 entrants, 5 NHC seats plus hotel and airfare, 12 players win back $160 credit. Estimating the value of airfare at $500, The total pot is [($3,333+$1,000)*5] + ($160*12) = $23,585, and the base economic value is the total pot of $23,585 divided by 300 players, or $78.62. Bump it up by 10% for NHC Tour points and we get an estimated economic value of $87; apply that to the $160 buy-in and you get a 46% take. Again, yeesh. That 46% is <i>two to three times</i> typical takeout rates on standard wagering at your friendly neighborhood racetrack!</div><div><br /></div><div>I'm not criticizing HorseTourneys or NHCQualify, both of which are sites I like, have used and will use again. The grimness of their takeout numbers seems to be a function of the NTRA's $6,500 per-seat charge, which is just way out of wack with the economic value of a seat. </div><div><br /></div><div>So what's an NHC aspirant to do? Well for starters, it helps to be aware of some of these numbers. I know there is a cache and brass-ring aspect to the NHC quest, and a (however remote) chance of a life-changing score, and this has a certain (yet indeterminate) premium. But in my view there is a general lack of transparency with some of this contest stuff for the ~99.9% of players who won't win the NHC, so buyer beware for sure. </div><div><br /></div><div>Live contests can be great value (as I blogged about recently, the NYRA essentially gives away NHC seats, not to mention lunch and beer, for free). HorseTourneys' feeder games are economical and can work out great from an ROI perspective, provided of course you can 'feed through' to an NHC-qualifying game for less than the price of an NHC-qualifying game. For non-NHC online games, DerbyWars' take is usually about 13% and can be lower or even negative if games don't fill. </div><div><br /></div><div>I was kind of vaguely aware that some NHC contests were tough propositions on an ROI basis, so hitting out to the numbers opened my eyes some but it didn't shock me. I'll still dabble in HorseTourneys and NHCQualify, especially for the rest of this year given I'm chasing NHC Tour points and I have <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs">sunk costs</a> involved in that quest. But going forward into next year, I'll try to be more discerning regarding contest costs, and adjust my play accordingly. </div><div><br /></div><div>And I'll also hope NTRA improves the value proposition offered to NHC Tour players. </div><div><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span> </div><div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div>Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-8177356525755120002012-06-25T07:38:00.031-07:002012-06-26T13:44:40.780-07:00Chinua Achebe Was Right<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy-twU6-m_MaQOXhlcvkI5PcggwbqvJpitUCMdx94tyH3B31LTsWPkiKUAPTSiioeK8CRwTwfZnlmqbW1hZtjSvTSdh7FZThtJUl372I5x8_eW9NAQZiHx3kzDrU6butUzuKlyDxGlZ_g/s1600/tfa.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy-twU6-m_MaQOXhlcvkI5PcggwbqvJpitUCMdx94tyH3B31LTsWPkiKUAPTSiioeK8CRwTwfZnlmqbW1hZtjSvTSdh7FZThtJUl372I5x8_eW9NAQZiHx3kzDrU6butUzuKlyDxGlZ_g/s320/tfa.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5757984346216552050" border="0" /></a>Things <i>do</i> fall apart. <div><br /></div><div>Rewind to 3:52 pm this past Sunday, when Bob Can't Jump drew alongside Strasbourg at the top of the lane in the 7th race at Churchill Downs, and looked like he would go by. The 6-1 Steve Margolis trainee would be my 2nd reasonably priced score of the day, and with five (5) winners under my belt from Saturday, it would firm up my top-5 position in the Belmont handicapping contest. With five bullets (bets) left including my double, a top-20 finish felt pretty safe, top-10 was very doable, and top 3 was within reach. Blue skies ahead!</div><div><br /></div><div>But Bob Can't Jump couldn't get by the chalk. I didn't realize it at the time, but the turn-back proved to be a seminal moment for me in the contest, as it touched off a rapid late-day swoon that ended in a very disappointing 32nd-place finish. </div><div><br /></div><div>After Bob Can't Jump proved he can't win either, there were 12 contest races remaining: 8-10 at CD, 7-10 at Belmont, and 8-12 at Monmouth. My experience went as follows:</div><div><br /></div><div>4:07 p.m., 7Bel: I went with Winged Venus (10-1) to win based on a very wide last-out trip and the fact that trainer Badgett had won earlier in the weekend. She had another wide trip and did nothing at all, finishing next to last; 5-2 chalk Speedy's Gal won the race. Four bets left, including double. </div><div><br /></div><div>4:15, 8Mth: Didn't have much of an opinion and no real harm done when 2nd choice Lucky James ($9.20) won.</div><div><br /></div><div>4:22, 8CD: I went with Bluegrass Shoes at 18-1 on the premise that trainer Sharon Ritter won a race on Saturday and some fundamental things to like, such as a Bluegrass Cat progeny getting more distance. Bluegrass Shoes flashed some speed but others did too, and he was cooked by mid-turn and finished 7th. Much worse than my loss was Halon winning at 16-1. Ouch -- in retrospect the horse wasn't a total throwout but he was tough to like with any confidence. The loss left me down to three bets left including double. </div><div><br /></div><div>4:39, 8Bel: I was skeptical of the 3-5 Baffert chalk but ultimately didn't bet the race. I probably would have bet Lemon Splendor, who finished up the track at 10-1, but in retrospect, $12.60 Beautiful but Blue was very playable and not a bad price either.</div><div><br /></div><div>4:46, 9Mth: I was rewarded for having no opinion when 6-5 Catalan beat 6-1 Poppa's Pick by a nose. Bonus entertainment value in watching some guy who apparently had Poppa's Pick celebrate when they hit the wire only to slump his shoulders in defeat when they posted the numbers. (<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rX7wtNOkuHo">Schadenfreude</a> baby!)</div><div><br /></div><div> </div><div>4:51, 9CD: The wheels really started to come off the bus when 18-1 Gaelico went wire-to-wire amid plenty of hootin' and hollerin' around me. I liked Splendiferous but I didn't like his 9-2 price, so I passed on the race. At 18-1 Gaelico was no slam dunk of course, but in retrospect, the War Front colt/Dale Romans drop-down from MdSpWt was a playable longshot.<br /><br />5:13, 9Bel: I was again skeptical of the Baffert chalk but I just couldn't get behind anyone else, so I passed on the race. 1-2 Brigand did in fact lose, but 5-2 second choice Willy Beamin won, so no real harm done.<br /><br />5:20, 10Mth: I liked Cheer N Shout a bit at 5-1, but not enough to bet. South Beach Hottie won the race at a $27.80 mutuel, but the room was way quieter than when other longshots won which leads me to believe that few if any folks had this one. I suspect Shannon Uske isn't a preferred jockey among handicapping contest players.<br /><br />5:23, 10CD: Man the CD late pick 3 killed me. I went with Shot an a Goal (8-1 ML, off at 24-1) based on trainer Michael Tomlinson having won Saturday's finale, plus stuff like a recent bullet workout and a drop from MdSpWt. But unlike Gaelico, this dropper didn't do much of anything, and American Legend won at 12-1. The winner was OK, a Wayne Catalano firster by Smart Strike, but not an especially compelling play, so I can't lament missing it. Down to two bets including double -- this is starting to suck.<br /></div><div><br />5:48, 10Bel: Played my precious double bet on Sasta Go Lucky at 8-1 based on a no-chance trip in her previous race and just a hunch that Rosie Napravnik would bounce back off a tough weekend with a win in a cheapie claimer. SGL ran decently and was coming on strong at the end but too little too late, as she only managed 3rd. I did not like $19.40 winner Jolienne, but apparently numerous others did.<br /><br /></div><div>At this point with only Mth11 and 12 left in the contest and only one bet left, I was in 21st place and a minor award was my ceiling. I was in a bit of a tizzy from the previous two hours and the last westbound LIRR train was leaving shortly, so...<br /><br />5:53, 11Mth: ...I made my worst bet of the weekend when I expended my last notional $20 on Harbor Breeze, who ran well but lost by a neck. The bet wasn't bad because it lost, but rather because Harbor Breeze was only 7-2 (4-1 when I bet it), which would have done me no good at all -- the $98 I would have 'won' would have moved me up a meaningless 6 spots to 26th place. This was really indefensible, inexplicable and just plain stupid, but...<br /><br />6:17, 12Mth:...I was saved from my own idiocy when my erstwhile selection Simeona ran 2nd at 8-1. A winning $20 bet would have meant another $198 and 14th place -- not great, but good for my money back and then some, plus some glory. So I <span style="font-weight: bold;">totes</span> should have bet Simeona rather than Harbor Breeze, but no harm done, luckily. 16-1 winner Black Ana Splash was at least a little playable in retrospect, and she would have jumped me up to 6th place, but I highly doubt I would have landed on her had I stayed.<br /></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://nyra.com/belmont/stories/June242012.shtml">Michael Emanuele did land on Back Ana Splash</a>, with his double no less, so congratulations to him. NYRA reports it was his first-ever handicapping contest, wow that is remarkable, also kind of depressing for grizzled vets like myself who have never won such a big event.<br /><br /></div><div>I've been stewing not just due to losing, but because I had an out-of-my-head day on Saturday, that went 100% for naught. I had five winners, 3-1 (Sailmate, 7Bel), 5-1 (Rogue, 5Mth), 6-1 (Zo Impressive, 10Bel), 7-1 (Attractive Ride, 2CD), and 9-1 (Bailey Park, 6Bel), and I was in position to take down the $1,500 first-day prize when 11-1 Seal Rock made the front at the 3/4 mark in the CD finale. Admittedly I was lucky, as Sailmate won by a nostril hair, and Bailey Park most likely would have been beaten had the chalk not tragically broke down in the stretch. But 5-for-10 days don't grow on trees, so it's difficult to have one and have it mean nothing.<br /><br />A few other observations:</div><div>-I did materially more prep work for Saturday than I did for Sunday, and Sat night/Sun morning I looked at Sunday's earlier races more closely than the later races. Did this cost me? Maybe. In the past there hasn't been a clear positive correlation between the amount of my night-before prep and my contest results, so maybe it was just random chance that my worst stretch was the races I was least prepared for. And looking back, the only real shoulda-bet I can point to is Beautiful but Blue in 8Bel, but the $126 would have only bumped me up to 21st place. I miiiiiiiiight have landed on Gaelico had I studied that race more, but that's very speculative.</div><div><br /></div><div>-My divergent results in lower-priced versus higher-priced plays was remarkable. With horses less than 10-1, I won 6 of 13 bets, with a couple close-call losers. With horses 10-1 or more, I went 0-for-7, with a distant third pitifully the best of the bunch. I like big prices and I think I'm decent at finding them, but geez Louise I couldn't buy a double-digit odds winner in this contest, and ultimately this was the difference between finishing in the top 20 and not doing so.</div><div><br /></div><div>-Kudos to NYRA for hosting an excellent contest. The Bel and Aqu events are my favorite contests, as they're the best value I'm aware of (essentially a negative take, as all entry fees are paid out in prize money and they give away NHC seats and lunch), plus the price point is reasonable, the format is good, the venue is comfortable, and the vibe is fun. </div><div><br /></div><div>-It was good to meet fellow contestants Steve Fitzpatrick and Scott Carson (Public Handicapper founder). It was also good to see Arjune Harripersaud finish 2nd -- as a young guy on a computer, he certainly breaks the mold of the New York contest archetype, which remains a 60-ish guy who's corpulent, sartorially substandard, and verbally communicative at unnecessarily high decibel levels.</div><div><br /></div><div>Oh well, onward and upward as they say. Or maybe just onward.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-36748051383869185612012-06-15T10:34:00.002-07:002012-06-15T10:43:44.615-07:00Some Points About Points<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxnmP-C6V0gNKCBYd83woQk0YCMo6ej4L2zRUVmffYhyphenhyphenTC16oKNiCvcpkJVcCj_4mbnDdaXBfgr6iM-IdVhecYfTzjt7ZL9v3odMTMDZtaGFE7zDTgrCtNr1nx0YZk4lS-_cH2DjMuEdQ/s1600/points.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxnmP-C6V0gNKCBYd83woQk0YCMo6ej4L2zRUVmffYhyphenhyphenTC16oKNiCvcpkJVcCj_4mbnDdaXBfgr6iM-IdVhecYfTzjt7ZL9v3odMTMDZtaGFE7zDTgrCtNr1nx0YZk4lS-_cH2DjMuEdQ/s320/points.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
I've been an NHC Tour member for four years now, for reasons such as a <a href="http://www.redrockorbust.blogspot.com/2009/04/new-t-shirt.html">T-shirt</a>, eligibility for the annual National Handicapping Championship (that hasn't come in handy for me yet), and of course the glamour and glory of it all.<br />
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During this time period I have also been vaguely aware of the existence of something called NHC Tour points. While I imagine I finished 1,791st or the like on at least one year's point scorecard, if only for my good looks, I always figured points were for the real hardcore NHC guys, you know the ones who show up in most online contests with two or even three entries, and who fly around to live events. I'm not that good of a handicapping contest player and I don't have the capacity to be more than a semi-regular contest player, so I've always felt like the 15-1 shot in the points race, going up against top outfits with multiple-horse entries and 8-5 morning lines.<br />
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But some fringe success (a very lucky 10th place in an online free-for-all, 27th place in a full-field NHCQualify, and 12th-place finishes in a HorseTourneys.com game and a recent Monmouth live event) so far this year has me at 2,816 points, good for 56th-place in the <a href="http://www.ntra.com/nhc/files/NHC%202012%20Tour%20-%20Leaderboard%20-%20First%20Half.pdf">points standings</a>. Given that the top 100 points finishers at year-end are guaranteed spots in the NHC, I've come 'round to the notion that this may be a viable way to punch my ticket.<br />
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Full rules of the NHC Points competition are <a href="http://www.ntra.com/content/nhctour/view/NA==">here</a>, but the important details are: Top 10 in first-half points and second-half points win cash prizes, Top 20 in full-year points win cash prizes, and Top 100 at year-end go to Vegas. Half-year points are awarded based on a player's top 4 finishes, one of which must be from a live event; full-year points are awarded based on a player's top 6 finishes, one of which must be from a live event. <br />
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I'm not concerning myself with the Top 10/20 stuff, at least at this juncture, as I concede that turf to the Ken Seemans, Paul Shurmans and Sally Goodalls of the world. But last year's 100th-place points finisher, Donald McNeil, had 4,309 points, which is certainly within striking distance of my 2,816. <br />
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Of course, I'll need to do better. Four point placings is pretty solid for a semi-regular player at midyear, but <i>10th, 12th, 12th, and 27th ain't exactly the stuff of greatness</i>, either. I reckon I need at least one Top-10 finish to give me a real chance at year-end.<br />
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Of course I'm hoping for a Top 3, 2, or 1 contest finish that would get me to Vegas by itself and make this points discussion moot, but until then, I'll be tracking the standings. <br />
Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-73139530657987023362012-03-03T10:50:00.010-08:002012-03-04T10:51:48.912-08:00DerbyWars Steps Up in Class<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ1_jKJ_rcFsBz6EltwHTThCc3GQbLEW-6EoL-eX2mHZcBaLfeayIwlDhUy4WQVya4nNa-fyNFvbeZsaxKbgv2_pZh8FooAAHecy1AlNT26zBIvrNorQfaNuND3Sxe-WeN6zLUBoRxzn4/s1600/dollar+sign.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 191px; height: 264px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ1_jKJ_rcFsBz6EltwHTThCc3GQbLEW-6EoL-eX2mHZcBaLfeayIwlDhUy4WQVya4nNa-fyNFvbeZsaxKbgv2_pZh8FooAAHecy1AlNT26zBIvrNorQfaNuND3Sxe-WeN6zLUBoRxzn4/s320/dollar+sign.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5716062070827167010" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="http://www.derbywars.com">DerbyWars.com</a> has been a welcome addition to the online handicapping contest landscape since its launch last year. For the most part I agree with the plaudits previously offered by fellow racing bloggers including <a href="http://www.equinometry.com/2012/02/17/derby-wars/">Equinometry</a> and <a href="http://www.njhorseplayer.com/2011/10/derby-warscom-gets-it-right-as-contest.html">NJHorseplayer</a>; I won't offer my own detailed review, but suffice it to say I like DerbyWars quite a bit, mostly for its clean and streamlined functionality, lower takeout rates vis-a-vis standard wagering at the track, and wide variety of games offered. My only real quibble is that they distribute prize money a bit too evenly for my tastes, i.e. the payout structures don't reward the top finishers as much as they should.<br /><br />DerbyWars is now raising the stakes considerably by offering a $25k "Monthly Shootout," the first of which will take place this Saturday, March 10. I say raising the stakes because up until now, I've considered DerbyWars as a niche player in the handicapping contest space -- lots of contests, but smaller contests, some with as few as 2 or 4 players, and antes as low as $4 to $6. Their weekend "Big Games" typically have had antes in the $25-$40 range, with $1k-$5k pots. DW did offer a handful of NHC seats through contests last fall, but otherwise they've been going after smaller-bankrolled players who are looking for a little action. So in my view they haven't really been competing directly with the NHCQualify.coms and HorseTourneys.coms of the world, whose games involve $100-$400 antes and NHC spots, or smaller antes and feeder routes to the NHC.<br /><br />The DW Monthly Shootout will have a $175 ante, with the winner collecting $10k. They seem to be doing well generating buzz and interest, as the contest is already 68/165 filled as of Sunday morning March 4, six days before the event. But can DerbyWars compete on an ongoing basis at this higher weight class?<br /><br />In my opinion, the answer is a <span style="font-style: italic;">qualified</span> yes. DerbyWars has done a good job getting its name out there, and the site itself is better than their sometimes-clunky competitors. Additionally, DW is probably the most nimble and customer-service-oriented online contest venue out there, so it's reasonable to assume they have a good pulse of the market and their read that there is a demand for this bigger game is correct.<br /><br />However, my reservation about DW's step up in class pertains to the lack of an NHC tie-in. The NHC is the Holy Grail for this contest player (and I assume many others), and given the unfortunate reality that contest-playing can be an expensive hobby, I'm not super keen on allocating significant dollars to anything without the NHC on the other side of the rainbow. I won about $3,150 net on racing in 2011 (my first plus year in a while), but I'm already down $1,300 in 2012; in an ideal world I'd already be qualified for NHC2013 and would be much more inclined to play a $175 non-NHC game, but for the time being I don't see myself putting up that ante. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to play the Shoot Out and I may well try a smaller DW game that offers a qualifying spot, but $175 for a non-NHC game is a bit rich for my blood.<br /><br />Add it all up and I think DerbyWars can pull off these bigger games, but they'll have to pick their spots carefully and minimize direct competition with NHC events. To firmly establish themselves in this higher weight class, i.e. to have demand consistently meet or exceed supply, some NHC tie-in will be needed.Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-55843487993016324312012-01-12T17:51:00.000-08:002012-01-12T18:27:43.869-08:00I'm Not Going to Vegas (After All)!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfqbbHeEOyFtDc2a25_GDTaoNrW8q-dubSEzGkqHBYEJrtkisG4ULkHnXd-K9xXs8dV5OsbjDCfz9DnbSDI_myHoK2_M4FBJ74G9P9UEHSHEY0TMOiKsvtpLNrMNd8aUUEOCvD5H9AfFo/s1600/no.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 293px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfqbbHeEOyFtDc2a25_GDTaoNrW8q-dubSEzGkqHBYEJrtkisG4ULkHnXd-K9xXs8dV5OsbjDCfz9DnbSDI_myHoK2_M4FBJ74G9P9UEHSHEY0TMOiKsvtpLNrMNd8aUUEOCvD5H9AfFo/s320/no.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5696936458544387618" border="0" /></a><br />Kind of old news but I wanted to update the blog.<br /><br />To recap: I was gonna go to the Last Chance NHC Qualifier in Vegas on Wed. Jan. 25 because I won what I thought was a $500 entry into the contest and a $500 travel voucher in a Dec. 26 HorsePlayersQualify.com contest. I was totally there.<br /><br />But the $500 entry + $500 "travel voucher" (is there such a thing?) showed up in my mailbox in the form of a plain old $1,000 check, which prompted me to reassess my plan.<br /><br />I was still gonna go, last week I even went as far as booking a flight ($340 r/t, Newark to Vegas). BUT just a couple hours after I booked, I learned that NHCQualify was having a last chance, $400 online contest on Sunday Jan. 8, that offered about the same or a slightly better chance to qualify compared with the Vegas Last Chance.<br /><br />So at that point I said ah screw it, cancelled my flight, signed up for NHCQualify, and tucked the $600 into my proverbial pocket to deploy for future contests.<br /><br />Ultimately I opted out because the Vegas trip just felt like a goose chase. As I said previously, I totally would be in if they signed me up and told me to just show up. But when it turned into a discretionary decision, my thinking went along these lines:<br />1. The specs of the last-chance Vegas contest-- $500 ante, 5 NHC spots, max 150 field, 30% back in prize money 70% to NHC pot -- are nothing special.<br />2. I dislike flying, so the idea of night and redeye flights was not appealing. Granted there would be some adventure to going to Vegas, but for me that would be trumped by (probably) losing in the contest followed by a 7-hour full flight in the middle seat, culminating in a 6am arrival at Newark airport. I would be dirty, tired, and cranky -- no thanks!<br />3. When I won some coin back in March at a Monmouth contest, I didn't use the money to start flying to contests all over the place, so why would I do it this time (with just 1/6 of my March winnings)?<br /><br />So that's my story and I'm sticking to it. There will be no NHC for me in 2012 (I finished up the track in the NHCQualify Last Chance this past Sunday).<br /><br />I am looking forward to the long journey towards the 2013 NHC, which I hereby <span style="font-size:180%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">GUARANTEE</span></span> I will qualify for. If I fail to qualify, I will give all readers a free one-year premium subscription to the RedRockorBust blog.<br /><br />The fun starts next Saturday at Monmouth Park.Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-26487746080650374022011-12-26T17:19:00.000-08:002011-12-27T07:08:31.257-08:00I'm Going to Vegas*!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr1blLHKg4483ixj-BipCNDaE8OEoqA7Puy9eidCK6LKTqz9RkgHZ_gCpBcb9ezi7siwpZ81fFyCim6N7uNfjsL1CL2-aw2B_G5INS6k7Wgy8bzmxsp0jRqfsM28zMfsktmFw7c10idPE/s1600/lead-plane-vegas1.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 189px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr1blLHKg4483ixj-BipCNDaE8OEoqA7Puy9eidCK6LKTqz9RkgHZ_gCpBcb9ezi7siwpZ81fFyCim6N7uNfjsL1CL2-aw2B_G5INS6k7Wgy8bzmxsp0jRqfsM28zMfsktmFw7c10idPE/s320/lead-plane-vegas1.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5690620204848762562" border="0" /></a>*but probably not for the NHC<br /><br />That's right. I didn't qualify for the 2012 NHC, but I did qualify for a play-in contest to the 2012 NHC via <a href="http://www.horseplayersqualify.com/">Horseplayersqualify.com</a>.<br /><br />Here's how it went down. After being pretty much resigned to my fate of not qualifying for the 2012 NHC because I failed to qualify in the first 11 3/4 months of 2011, I received an e-mail from William H. at<a href="http://www.njhorseplayer.com/"> NJHorseplayer.com</a> that mentioned he would be participating in today's contest, which I had been unaware of. I wasn't crazy about the specs, i.e. 1/3 takeout and seemingly a wild-goose chase to Vegas, but given the low $50 ante and with me nursing a Christmas cold and half a box of wine to kick, I figured I'd give it a whirl and sign up.<br /><br />I didn't spend much time on the PPs, but the planets aligned for my tried-and-true short-cut angles. Trainer recency landed me on American Blend at 5SA ($23 to win, $9.40 to place) and Voce de Leone in 9GP ($10.80, $5), while an odds-movement pattern pointed me to Gorgelicious in 7GP ($10.60 to place). Throw in a few logical chalks (What a Rush in 2SA, Bernster in 3SA, Tiz a Theme in 11GP), and I had enough notional bankroll to finish in 6th place of 240 contestants.<br /><br />So along with the five folks who finished ahead of me and the two who finished right behind me, I won a free entry to the Treasure Island play-in on Wednesday Jan. 25 ($500 value), plus a $500 travel voucher to Sin City.<br /><br />I'm not sure what the specs are for the play-in, but given the fairly steep $500 ante I'm assuming it'll come with a reasonable chance to qualify, perhaps 1/15 or somesuch. I'll plan to go to Vegas on Tues Jan. 24 and return late-night Wed. Jan. 25; I'll try to fly Southwest (no change fees), so on the off chance that I qualify I'll stick around for the NHC, which is Fri Jan. 27-Sat Jan. 28.<br /><br />I kind of feel like a middling college team heading into its conference tourney on a hot (or at least warm) streak, hoping to win at least a couple more games to qualify for the NCAA tournament.<br /><br />I probably won't qualify, but it will be fun.Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-47597513006361384292011-12-18T18:47:00.001-08:002011-12-19T06:19:29.603-08:00Whad Up Wit Dat? The Future of Monmouth Park (Part III)<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfUqiT3ofVm_qtiKakDmjDc8Cw7LVpSjlhz7LswWmCfBLkxr9ortFelQPo-Fin53jv-gwBw9LXsbkSKY3OQ5zZ51prazjyjBkAcnbXIjOMuFclUly-X78Cy6tR85ii7HyAbEDE_BYvVpQ/s1600/575562-tumbleweed.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 312px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfUqiT3ofVm_qtiKakDmjDc8Cw7LVpSjlhz7LswWmCfBLkxr9ortFelQPo-Fin53jv-gwBw9LXsbkSKY3OQ5zZ51prazjyjBkAcnbXIjOMuFclUly-X78Cy6tR85ii7HyAbEDE_BYvVpQ/s320/575562-tumbleweed.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5687843871969351634" /></a><br />Is Oceanport, N.J. the new Flint, Michigan?<br /><br />OK granted that is a stretch, but there are some real similarities.<br /><br />A declining industry that is a big part of the tax base. Government mulling what if any support is warranted. Erstwhile white-knight investors kicking tires, but not biting.<br /><br />Whereas the U.S. auto industry seems to have at least stabilized, albeit in a much smaller form, the future of horse racing on the Jersey Shore can only aspire to that outcome right now.<br /><br />I have previously weighed in on the future of Monmouth Park <a href="http://redrockorbust.blogspot.com/2011/03/whad-up-wit-dat-future-of-monmouth-park.html">here</a> and <a href="http://redrockorbust.blogspot.com/2011/03/whad-up-wit-dat-future-of-monmouth-park_27.html">here</a>. In Part III of <span style="font-style: italic;">Whad Up Wit Dat?</span>, I offer my 2 cents on the latest developments.<br /><br />According to the <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/monmouth-park-deal-calls-141-racing-days">most recent report</a>, the state of New Jersey will continue to operate Monmouth Park in 2012 while a private investor is sought. While that is decidedly good news compared with the stone-cold closure that seemed to have been on the table, the indicated purses are Grim City: about $150-175K per day, or whatever is supported by betting handle. In other words, the state will run the track but will not be on the hook for any losses, which from what I understand have run into the millions of dollars in recent meets.<br /><br />How grim is $150-175K per day? Well I took a gander at Equibase.com for a cheapie track as a frame of reference...landed on Penn National, Dec. 17 card....added up the purses of the 9 races...and hit out to $167K. So just two years after Monmouth Park's "Elite Meet" lured jockeys John Velazquez and Garrett Gomez from New York and California, the 141-day "Shit-Ass Meet" beckons, with lots of short fields and lunchpail $10K-$20K races. Blech.<br /><br />A few observations:<br /><br />-I'm not sure how they hit out to the $150-175K range -- I wonder if that's overly optimistic, because I see clear potential for a negative cycle: crummy racing leads to less betting, which leads to lower purses, which leads to crummier racing.<br /><br /><div>-Toughest job in sports in 2012: marketing Monmouth Park.<div><br /></div><div>-Second-toughest job: NJ thoroughbred breeder. Just a few days ago, the Wall Street Journal ran a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203893404577098852062890634.html">story</a> about how thoroughbred breeding in New York is on the rise, buoyed by money from the new Aqueduct casino. Horse breeding in NJ is no doubt moving in the opposite direction, amid seemingly never-ending uncertainty about the future of racing in the state and now a withdrawn private-investment bid and the specter or harsh purse cuts. I suspect you can probably get a nice NJ-bred horse these days for very cheap. <br /><br /></div><div>-I imagine finding a private investor will be very difficult. Nothing about the economics of Monmouth Park will change in the near-term: horse racing is still in decline and the economy is still lousy, so the place will continue to lose money. And Gov. Christie has picked Atlantic City over horse racing, so any sort of casino/slot development at Monmouth or the Meadowlands is pretty much a pipe dream. One guy (Morris Bailey) has already walked away from leasing Monmouth Park, why would anyone else sign on without a game changer? <br /><br />Personally, I hope Monmouth keeps its handicapping contests, especially its winter Simulcast Series Challenge. But beyond that, I'm more or less apathetic. In a way I lament the demise of Monmouth Park, and I disagree with Christie in his choice of AC over the tracks, but at the same time I agree with Christie conceptually that the state should not be in the business of subsidizing money-losing sports like horse racing. The fact that horse racing can't make it on its own is the free market saying that it should go away. Lord knows horse racing needs consolidation, so in the worst-case scenario of a Monmouth closure, presumably the product at NY and some mid-Atlantic tracks would be strengthened.</div></div>Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-1771591575082638232011-06-05T17:45:00.000-07:002011-06-05T18:38:37.779-07:00A Swing, and a Miss<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCpXz8n3g7Ycx-GqEAMvfDRpvQyeQcDfXuqoBEkfRhr-ERhi2jhXdjNc_RxNW5Xbhm8fQhPHyUya6i-gO2ijfA89v2QfuBtRXD8d-70XqZAKa3jp7O3p-eiKeUERgBLTmdLRvtzihyFSg/s1600/swing-miss.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 231px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCpXz8n3g7Ycx-GqEAMvfDRpvQyeQcDfXuqoBEkfRhr-ERhi2jhXdjNc_RxNW5Xbhm8fQhPHyUya6i-gO2ijfA89v2QfuBtRXD8d-70XqZAKa3jp7O3p-eiKeUERgBLTmdLRvtzihyFSg/s320/swing-miss.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5614915153270179298" border="0" /></a><br />We'll pick up the action from today's <a href="http://monmouthpark.com/event_detail.aspx?id=486">Monmouth/Woodbine Handicapping Contest</a> at about 5:45 p.m.: after a 'meh' handicapping day in which I had only one 3-1 winner at Monmouth from eight bets, my initial bankroll of $100 was down to $30 and I was ready to go home, so I put down a win-or-go-home bet: $30W on Heavenly Pride in the Woodbine 10th. She wins by a neck at 4.60-1, putting me back in the ball game with a $168 bankroll. I followed that with a $40W$20P bet on Mint Maker in the 11th at Monmouth; he finishes 2nd to the chalk at 22-1, pushing my bankroll up to $236 and about 20th in the contest.<br /><br />But the fat lady could have started warming up right then. I couldn't pull the trigger on anything in 11WO, which was just as well because I never would have had the 31-1 bomber Paidrag. (Apparently at least one of my rivals did, as the leading bankroll went from ~$1K to ~$4K after that race.) This left only the Monmouth finale, a grim bottom-of-the-barrel heat, to make or break my day.<br /><br />I went all-in (that's right, $236W) on Mo's Mini Skirt, a first-time starter that took a little early money before drifting up to 5-1. She showed some early speed but weakened to finish 4th, so I was out the door with $0.<br /><br />Putting aside the merits of Mo's Mini Skirt specifically (of which there were precious few), that last-race situation I found myself in re-raised a question I continue to struggle with as a handicapping contest player: is there ever a time when you should fold 'em and go home with a couple hundred bucks? Or do you keep swinging until the bell rings, whether or not you like a horse, on the premise that late-contest swings don't grow on trees and must be seized?<br /><br />I lean towards the latter, and my track record supports this -- I can't remember the last contest I went home with unused bullets. But is this the right strategy? Something about putting down $236, or more than 10x my average bet earlier in the contest, while holding my nose in that finale today struck me as absurd -- it just flies in the face of ROI principles that would dictate picking your spots. Would it have been wiser to tuck the $236 in my wallet to deploy for another day? <br /><br />I don't think there's an easy answer in this debate -- if I walk away and my erstwhile selection loses, I made a great call, but if he wins, I'm a dunce. And vice versa if I go for it. Vexing, but also part of the beauty of handicapping contests, in my view.Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-63568901547746694582011-03-31T17:33:00.000-07:002011-03-31T17:49:08.939-07:00Treasure Island or Bust? Naah...Earlier this week I was jolted by <a href="http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDc3NTU=">the news</a> that the DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship is moving its act from Red Rock Casino Resort to Treasure Island. This is effective immediately, i.e. for the January 2012 NHC, which will just so happen to coincide with my (planned) first NHC appearance.<br /><br />What!??!?!? After all the work I've done in creating and building up the Red Rock or Bust blog, they go and change the name without even consulting me? So I proceeded to sink into a deep depression, emerging from my darkened, shades-drawn bedroom only for a sandwich run over to the Big M for <a href="http://www.thebigm.com/event_detail.aspx?id=5297">delipalooza</a>, where I ran into NJHorseplayer dot com.<br /><br />After that pick-me-up I pondered my options and proceeded to conduct exhaustive market research and focus groups regarding Red Rock or Bust. I was pleased to learn that my blog has built such a strong name-brand value that it transcends the name brand of the NHC, and even the NTRA and DRF themselves! So I have decided to stand pat.<br /><br />(Actually I'm just too lazy to change the name of my blog, but I thought it would be fun to tell this tall tale.)Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-11454013504473663552011-03-27T15:28:00.000-07:002011-03-27T16:43:15.178-07:00Whad up wit dat? The future of Monmouth Park (Part II)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYXePBo6hXVLbxQwj8Dn6Q-viTOsIVg8WQh2K21JJ9vbiwJjmsC26niwhRFD8hixdU9Qv7ztDldvlcMGoIPnecV6bCu8avhApXjzg48ePlkykWWhXw38pSGzq9vjKMbhc_fkAlL6Neit4/s1600/q.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 225px; height: 225px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYXePBo6hXVLbxQwj8Dn6Q-viTOsIVg8WQh2K21JJ9vbiwJjmsC26niwhRFD8hixdU9Qv7ztDldvlcMGoIPnecV6bCu8avhApXjzg48ePlkykWWhXw38pSGzq9vjKMbhc_fkAlL6Neit4/s320/q.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5588909441795858770" border="0" /></a><br />Is it me or is there a disconnect between reality and <a href="http://monmouthpark.com/calendardates.aspx?id=93">Monmouth Park's posted racing dates</a>?<br /><br />Earlier this weekend I caught <a href="http://thebigm.com/News.aspx?id=5421">this interview</a> of Jeff Gural, the prospective white knight of the Meadowlands. I was impressed by the dude -- seems like he knows his stuff, he is ready to make sweeping changes at the Big M, and at the same time he came across as very realistic and pragmatic about the whole situation (I was struck by his "I don't mind losing $10 or $12 million for 18 or 19 months" quote). Gural has been in the picture for about three and a half months from what I understand, he has arranged $100 million funding, and he is now in the nitty-gritty phase of dealing with the unions.<br /><br />So, sounds pretty far along and promising, and they're still saying best-case scenario is for racing to resume at the Big M by June or July.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Monmouth Park is still soliciting bids through the end of the month, "prior to the due diligence process"! And Monmouth is planning to open its meet on Saturday, May 14?<br /><br />What happens if all bidders (eight so far, from what I have read) decide to not move forward beyond their initial interest? What if the erstwhile bidder isn't qualified or cannot reach agreement? What if something falls apart during due diligence? Even let's say best case, something moves forward, how long will due diligence take? Monmouth Park ain't no lemonade stand -- any entity considering sinking millions into the track and operating it for a five-year period is going to want to make sure everything is right.<br /><br />Add it all up and unless I'm missing something here, simulcast signals will be the only racing seen and heard at Monmouth Park on May 14. I suspect there will be some semblance of a Monmouth meet this year, but I'd guess it will some abbreviated job, perhaps starting around July 4 or maybe even a few-week deal centered around the Haskell.<br /><br />Maybe I'm just Gloomy Gus, but I think no live racing at Monmouth this year is a more likely outcome than starting on May 14.Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-35631361524943568072011-03-20T14:57:00.000-07:002011-03-20T18:46:07.292-07:00It Was a Very Good Day<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM-9MEvNG9k3qTZG7KAh2ul6AbrbOflsriWmPZgkgy9TKDhOon0-yQ7PS3E2i9MpBPWX6yg-P_q_EstOZk4GXY1XKZHqH4TFxXgztt173ghzaRFUvfXmLMeE1xeWplTc17eZGuwdbIoFo/s1600/shamrock.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 188px; height: 268px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM-9MEvNG9k3qTZG7KAh2ul6AbrbOflsriWmPZgkgy9TKDhOon0-yQ7PS3E2i9MpBPWX6yg-P_q_EstOZk4GXY1XKZHqH4TFxXgztt173ghzaRFUvfXmLMeE1xeWplTc17eZGuwdbIoFo/s320/shamrock.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5586338600002636834" border="0" /></a>Proving that reports of my demise as a competitive handicapping contest player were greatly exaggerated, I placed 2nd of 262 in yesterday's Simulcast Series Challenge #3 at Monmouth Park.<br /><br />The wager-by-wager recap:<br /><br />1. GP1, $5WP Vini Vidi Vinci. I thought Brad's Kitten was a bad even-money favorite, plus trainer Tammy Domenosky had won within the previous day or two, so the trainer recency angle was a factor. But apparently the Latin translation of Vini Vidi Vinci is "I came, I saw, I didn't lift a hoof." $100 starting bankroll down to $90.<br /><br />2. Tam5, $10WP Who is Lady. Trainer-recency angle plus odds-bounce angle at work here, as Derek Ryan had recently won and Who Is Lady took substantial early money before drifting up to 9-1, near her ML. I figured the double angle warranted a double bet, and lo and behold WIL went to the front and held on, ending my 26-race schneid in live contests. Bankroll: $209.<br /><br />3. Tam7, $10W Doctor Carina. The 6-5 chalk looked vulnerable to me, and 9-2 seemed like a reasonable price to speculate that trainer Thomas Proctor would have Doctor Carina ready to run off a long layoff. But as they say, even the best laid plans of mice and men go awry: chalk wins, DC does nothing. Bankroll: $199.<br /><br />4. GP7, $10W Mongoose Gold. Another Tammy Domenosky horse -- this was pretty dicey but at 20-1, I thought it was worth a shot. No dice. Bankroll: $189. (Aside: Domenosky won a later race with a 6-1 horse, but I had given up on her by then and passed.)<br /><br />5. Tam7, $20W Doubles Partner. I usually turn up my nose at 2-1 horses, especially in 10-horse fields, but this Todd Pletcher horse looked like a standout to me. Julien Leparoux gave me more anxious moments than one should have with a solid chalk, but he does have impeccable timing and ice water in his veins, as he managed to get up by a neck in a blanket finish. Bankroll: $235.<br /><br />6. GP8, $20W Sligovitz. I had a hunch this horse was live at 10-1, and sure enough he was, though due to a wide trip and a bland ride by an over-the-hill Edgar Prado he only managed 2nd. "Shoulda" done a WP bet on this rather than just straight W. Bankroll: $215.<br /><br />7. Tam8, $10W Bay of Wicklow. Crazy odds bounce on this one, as he was 1-1 in the first click I saw before drifting (and drifting and drifting) up to 27-1 (!). Alas, he ran like a 27-1 shot (dead last). Bankroll: $205.<br /><br />8. Aqu9, $10W Roman Treasure. This Hushion-Hill horse looked like the speed of the speed, and I thought he was decent value at 5-1. But he had to duel early and faded to 4th. Bankroll: $195.<br /><br />9. 11Tam, $50W$20P Nehalennia. I had seen Graham Motion win with so-so looking horses off layoffs too many times in my day to pass on this one at double-digit odds (went off at 17-1). I dug this horse a bunch, and she validated by faith by running a nice second. Bummer that I missed the win, but I was glad I got a few shekels back and very glad I scaled back from my original bet of $100W. Bankroll: $277, and it was now crunch time with just 3 contest races left.<br /><br />10. 10Aqu, $70W Missysmoonlitmagic. Thought the 2-5 Linda Rice chalk was worth a bet-against, so I landed on Missys -- more of a hunch play than anything else really. She ran a creditable 3rd, but that didn't do me any favors. Bankroll: $207.<br /><br />11. 12Tam, $50W Double Revival. I saw a trainer recency angle with Anthony Pecoraro in this bottom-basement race, and 16-1 was plenty of price. But trainer recency, trainer schmecency I guess, as Double Revival ran a non-threatening 5th. Bankroll: $157.<br /><br />12. 11GP, $150W Rules of Honor. In 16th place with one bullet left, it was time to hang some fire, and lo and behold Rules of Honor came though at 9-2. This race went off while 12Tam was still going, so things were a bit frenetic, but once I saw Double Revival spinning his wheels I turned my attention to GP, where I was thrilled to see Kent (The Kid) Desormeaux work out a nice trouble-free, ground-saving trip, swing wide into the lane and win fairly easily. Final bankroll: $862, good for 2nd place.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Analysis</span><br />Everything went right for me in this contest, really. I believe to do well in any given contest you need to have at least some measure of three things on your side: good race handicapping, savvy contest strategy, and Lady Luck.<br /><br />I picked some live horses over the course of the afternoon, so check on good race handicapping. I was 4-for-12 in my bets (though one winner was just 2-1 and another was just the P of a WP bet), a .333 batting average I will take any day. And I did everything right with regard to executing my contest strategy: I was patient, I kept the total number of my bets down, I allocated the capital I had late in the afternoon to maximize my number of swings (I got three good swings out of $277), and I was not afraid to lose.<br /><br />And I am the first to admit that I got freaking <span style="font-weight: bold;">lucky</span> with Rules of Honor. I didn't especially like him -- he was reasonably plausible, but at just 9-2 in an 11-horse field, he wasnt a big value play by any means. In fact, when there were three contest races left, I even said aloud to<span style="text-decoration: underline;"> NJ Horseplayer dot com</span> that I was thinking of betting the Aqueduct and Tampa finales, but not Gulfstream -- that was how tepidly I felt about the race. But when my Aqu and Tam shots failed, I needed to do something at GP -- I looked up at the screen and saw Rules of Honor warming up and I thought damn he looks good. So with that five-second body language read and a just-decent-enough price, I went all in. <br /><br />I was very gratified with the result, but I'm not getting too high/full of myself about it, just like I tried to not get too down and discouraged about my recent drought. I'm not as good as I was yesterday, and I'm not as bad as 0-26; I'm somewhere in between with plenty of room for improvement.Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-24036151721953349602011-03-04T13:18:00.000-08:002011-03-04T19:40:12.959-08:00Whad up wit dat? The future of Monmouth ParkWe interrupt this regularly scheduled handicapping contest blog to shout out "whad up wit dat" regarding the future of Monmouth Park.<div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.nj.com/horse-racing/index.ssf/2011/03/monmouth_parks_ownership_future_schedule_uncertain.html">NJ.com reported</a> that the powers-that-be are looking for a lessee for Monmouth Park, but only if they run 141 days. In other words, sure you can come in and run the track, but only if you return to the pre-2010 model that the track itself acknowledged wasn't working: modest purses that barely keep up with slots-fueled competition elsewhere in the mid-Atlantic, tired five-horse fields running in front of 3,000 people on summer weekdays, tumbleweed after Labor Day, etc. Blech.<br /><br />And I reckon a 141-day meet would be even worse than 2009. How could anyone get excited for ~$325,000 in daily purses after they were one mil last summer? Hamburger Helper isn't terrible thing by itself, but when you go from Hamburger Helper to a real burger back to Hamburger Helper...ugh. Plus, NYRA is on the upswing with its slots thingamajig coming up, so wave goodbye to Todd Pletcher's 'A' and 'B' teams and to John Velazquez and Garrett Gomez, say hello to Pletcher's 'C' team and Felix Ortiz and Luis Rivera.<br /><br />Unless I'm missing something here, good luck in finding a lessee who will sign on with the 141-day stipulation.<br /><br />Would you lease a retail store if you had to stay open 16 hours a day in February?<br /><br />Would you lease a boardwalk concession stand if you had to stay open until November?<br /><br />Would you lease a church if you had to hold service on Tuesday afternoons?<br /><br />(OK that last one doesn't really make sense, but it's been a long week, cut me some slack.)<br /><br />You get the point.<br /><br />I think the horsemen who are now saying a 141-day meet is "etched in stone" will be ready to compromise if and when there are no qualified bids and they are faced with a 0-day meet.<br /><br />And now back to our regularly scheduled handicapping contest blog.<br /> </div>Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-76801822096660148962011-01-30T16:44:00.000-08:002011-01-30T18:54:27.326-08:00What is My Edge?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgffNp8qNA5-Gd3_d1JxEFmUcWhMFUhfpRHQqkt5dsbV532Y37yJvB3c_a5MJQoUFxg8L-5MabXxMjK-EoQD5WycO-_ykjbSep6V9meuBqwuvhckDS8qdG1KMALAwGycnWtZW-L_P4Gm7I/s1600/edge.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 176px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgffNp8qNA5-Gd3_d1JxEFmUcWhMFUhfpRHQqkt5dsbV532Y37yJvB3c_a5MJQoUFxg8L-5MabXxMjK-EoQD5WycO-_ykjbSep6V9meuBqwuvhckDS8qdG1KMALAwGycnWtZW-L_P4Gm7I/s320/edge.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5568150240531433298" border="0" /></a>I went to Monmouth Park a couple times early last summer. I stayed for full cards and I watched the toteboard, post parade and races closely.<br /><br />From those couple days I came away with a three-horse watchlist: Lucky Evening, who took early money in his debut for no apparent reason and made a decent rail rally to finish midpack; Bella D'Oro, who had some sort of jock/equipment issue for a few strides out of the gate and lost all chance; and Farmer Jones, who took early money in his debut but then acted up before loading in the gate and didn't do much running at all.<br />Bella D'Oro and Farmer Jones came back to each run solid seconds at about 10-1 or 12-1, and then subsequently win at chalky odds. Lucky Evening didn't pan out at all, and last I saw he was running for $5K at Penn National.<br /><br />My point is not to rehash specifics about those eight-month-old races or to say I'm still looking out for the horses to run back; rather, my point is that I believe my analysis of those race days gave me some live horses to come back with (as Meat Loaf sang, two out of three ain't bad). In other words, my analysis gave me an <span style="font-style: italic;">edge</span>.<br /><br />Having an edge is absolutely critical for a horseplayer to have any chance of making money or even breaking even on a consistent basis in this high-takeout game. Having an edge also means everything in determining success in handicapping contests, in which the waters are deep and competition is stiff.<br /><br />I think all successful handicapping contest players have some sort of an edge. Hesham Regab, who won the Aqueduct handicapping contest in November, <a href="http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/stories/Podcast_Hesham_Ragab_Dec10_OTL.shtml">cited horse physicality</a>. Tom Noone, who won the 2010 NHC Tour, <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/qa-thomas-noone">said parsing race conditions is a big value-add</a>. And 2011 DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship winner <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/winner-days-final-race-enables-john-doyle-capture-nhc">John Doyle</a> is a professional horseplayer, so it's reasonable to assume he has an edge somewhere.<br /><br />So in this winter of my discontent (and amid a vicious 0-for-18 schneid in handicapping contest races spanning two live days, Nov. 14 and Jan. 15), I have been pondering an existential question: what is <span style="font-style: italic;">my</span> edge?<br /><br />As evidenced by my opening anecdote, I truly believe I am good at ferreting out important pieces of information by closely watching the toteboard, post parade and the races. And when I say information, I'm talking stuff that others don't see and that doesn't show up in the PPs.<br /><br />However, I do not follow the races anywhere close to regularly enough for this to be a consistent edge, so the best I can do here is catch-as-catch-can and try to find stuff here and there.<br /><br />In the absence of a steady pipeline of watchlist horses, I often fall back on angles, or shortcuts. A few of these angles are:<br /><br />1. In certain situations, when a horse takes early money inexplicably and then drifts up to near its morning line odds.<br />2. Following lower-profile trainers who have won or come close in the previous 24-48 hours.<br />3. Extrapolating subtly bad trips in the absence of watching replays, e.g. if a horse had an outside post in a turf race and ran just a few lengths behind a slow pace for much of the race. <br /><br />As is the case with any angle in horse racing, sometimes these work and sometimes they don't. But I think angles such as these are the next best thing to having a legitimate, hard-earned edge based on following the races closely and consistently over time.Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-59814879437121231912011-01-12T16:34:00.000-08:002011-01-12T19:01:09.469-08:00Push/Pull<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDWVLiinpJPNYB2DhpAzFq_3EZ7aUBTzU1Ng0D1VvK3L__ek9C_9G7F9KrZSxOqQUF3ijFShZhtt8EHNVfvD4dmYSDFnYbBC5MAUytMiqQSdBoDiUrfms2K9EOkx7wdX_LxExcU9EykKU/s1600/pull_push.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDWVLiinpJPNYB2DhpAzFq_3EZ7aUBTzU1Ng0D1VvK3L__ek9C_9G7F9KrZSxOqQUF3ijFShZhtt8EHNVfvD4dmYSDFnYbBC5MAUytMiqQSdBoDiUrfms2K9EOkx7wdX_LxExcU9EykKU/s320/pull_push.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5561494667978145586" border="0" /></a><br />In my view, much of what determines success or failure in handicapping contests comes down to the delicate balance between boldness and conservatism. The push and the pull.<br /><br />The ultimate aggressive move would be laying down your entire bankroll on a price play in the first contest race. The ultimate in conservatism would be making minimum-bet plays on favorites throughout the card. The first approach could win you a contest once in a blue moon, but most days it would have you broke and out the door at 1:05 p.m. The second tack could have you on the fringe of contention sometimes, and likely would get you at least some of your bankroll back at the end of real-money contests, but realistically it would never win you anything.<br /><br />Of course, neither of those strategies is optimal; like most things in life, the way, the truth, and the light lie somewhere in between.<br /><br />I've had a number of contest also-ran finishes over the years that I attribute at least partly to being overly aggressive -- either making a big bet early on or too quickly squandering a leaderboard position with substantial bets. I don't recall ever kicking myself afterwards for being too conservative, which I believe would sting more than being too bold.<br /><br />But the challenge, and the beauty, of finding the sweet spot on the safety-risk spectrum is that it is a moving target, and you don't know where the sweet spot was until after the Official sign lights on the toteboard after the final contest race. If the chalk won a bunch of races on a given day, conservatism was rewarded, whereas risk takers won if there were prices. Similarly, you don't know which of your selections will win beforehand, so having only $10 on that 15-1 winner looks pretty pansy-ass at the end of a losing day, while putting $150 on a 15-1 loser would probably seem foolish and overly risky in retrospect.<br /><br />In my view, a contest player's best approach is to operate within a band of the safety-risk spectrum and be ready and willing to adjust on the fly. So say on a scale of 1-10, 1 is super conservative and 10 is as ballsy as you can get. I like to think I operate in about the 6-to-7.5 range on balance, and I'm willing to go anywhere from 1 (when capital preservation is needed) to 10 (when a Hail Mary is my only hope).<br /><br />One application of this may come in this Saturday's <a href="http://monmouthpark.com/event_detail.aspx?id=2720">Simulcast Series Challenge #1</a> at Monmouth Park. From what I understand the only rule change is that the top 15 finishers qualify for the invitational tourney in April, up from 10 last year. I think this may make many players a bit more conservative, simply because you don't got's to do as good to come in 15th place as you do 10th place. Based on that theory, I may decide to up my risk taking, because as Warren Buffett says, be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy.<br /><br />But we'll see, it will be an on-the-fly call, and of course I have to pick some winners for any of this mumbo jumbo to matter a hill of beans.Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3040184135260137519.post-67087549928772322072011-01-01T15:28:00.000-08:002011-01-01T16:32:23.250-08:002011 KickoffI am participating -- <span style="font-style: italic;">kind of</span> -- in the<a href="http://games.ntra.com/home/index/view/MTI=/1"> 2011 NHC Online Kickoff Challenge</a>, set for tomorrow, Sunday January 2.<br /><br />I say "kind of" because I only scanned the PPs as the basis for my submitted picks, and most likely I will make no additional effort tomorrow beyond checking to see if any of my picks are early scratches.<br /><br />My tepid interest can be attributed to a few factors:<br /><br />(1) In general, I'm not a big fan of online contests. Not only do they lack the competitive 'feel' of live events, but many online events are so big that placing in them is akin to winning the lottery. Online contests often have ~800 participants, which means that a very very good day will most likely be not good enough, you need to have a transcendent day. I prefer contests where a very very good day is rewarded.<br /><br />Don't get me wrong, online contests do send people to Vegas, so it's worth tossing my hat into the ring. Maybe one of these days my lottery number will come in.<br /><br />(2) As a semi-regular, semi-serious horseplayer, I typically am in a dormant phase from around Breeders Cup to mid- to late-January or thereabouts. Being that I haven't really been following the sport, I'm kidding myself if I think I'm gonna jump in cold and add value in trying to pick a winner in the $5K claimer at Fair Grounds.<br /><br />(3) NFL is on tomorrow. 'nuff said.<br /><br />I've circled Saturday, Jan. 15 on my calendar for <a href="http://monmouthpark.com/event_detail.aspx?id=2720">my first real contest endeavour of 2011</a>. In the meantime, my picks tomorrow are as follows:<br /><br />Race 1 / (2) Manchild<br />Race 2 / (10) La Belle Gabrielle<br />Race 3 / (3) Rightuplynn'salley<br />Race 4 / (9) Roaring Belle<br />Race 5 / (1) D'oro Princess<br />Race 6 / (5) Devil's Hammock<br />Race 7 / (8) Cajun Sky<br />Race 8 / (6) Devils Afleet<br />Race 9 / (3) Thunder Chop<br />Race 10 / (2) Matamor<br /><br />Good luck!Terryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06753265916892083288noreply@blogger.com0