HorseTourneys Recap

Wow, I haven't blogged in almost two months, time sure does fly. My excuses are, in no particular order, (1) busy with work and work travel; (2) twitter has been cannibalizing some thoughts that would have previously shown up here; and (3) general lameness and laziness.

Anyhow, I'm still around fighting the good fight to try to make it to NHC, and ultimately win the NHC (yeah. RIGHT). In fact, just this past Saturday I played the $195 HorseTourneys.com event, which qualified the top three for Vegas and refunded antes back to the top 10% of finishers (I was this in this latter group in an April 1 HorseTourneys event, so I used my chit from that for this recent event). My 12 bets went as follows:

1. CD5. Lost a brutal photo when 10-1 Colonel Bill got out-bobbed by the chalk. $8.60 to place wasn't a horrible booby prize, but I knew this wasn't a good way to start the day.

2. CD6. In retrospect, not a very good bet on 3-1 Trubs, who I kind of liked but there was ample reason to switch off given the modest price. He finished last, but there was no harm done as my alternate selection, 7-1 Attractive Ride, finished next-to-last.

3. Bel7. Went with Quartermain, who showed some late interest but was fanned wide and finished mid-pack at 9-1.

4. AP5. I believe 7-1 Annette's Guy would have won the race with even a seam of room in the stretch, but the horse was bottled up until the final strides when it was too late. This and the aforementioned CD5 were my two toughest-luck races of the day...this one was made worse by the fact the winner was 10-1.

5. CD8. Rung up another $8.60 when Smarty's Emperoress placed at about 10-1. Was no threat to the winner.

6. Bel8. Fulton Street didn't do much at about 6-1.

At this point, halfway through the 12 contest races, I was right around midpack in the field of 140 -- not hopelessly out of it, but needing a very good second half to land in the top 16 and a huge second half to finish in the top 3.

7. Bel9. I liked Street Life a bunch at 10-1, and he did make a big late run, but disappointingly only managed third. There was no touching the chalky winner Mark Valeski on this day, but damn Street Life should have at least got 2nd.

Kudos to NJ Horseplayer, who had the place bomber who held off Street Life for 2nd, which put him in 5th place in the contest. Unfortunately he faded late and missed finishing in the top 16 by a few spots.

8. CD10. Made Up finished off the board and the chalk won.

At this point it was getting late in the game, 3rd place wasn't gonna happen. I was pretty much playing for 16th place, and with each subsequent 0-fer race my path to the top 16 was becoming exponentially more improbable.

9. BHP4. went with Satchmo's Muse at low double-digit odds, didn't really have much of a feeling one way or the other but I needed a price. He didn't run a lick and not only did the winner J Louie pay $33, but he was playable in retrospect.

I was pretty much cooked at this point, as I needed to win probably two of the final three races at least, with decent prices, to have any chance. I went with Life is a Rock in Hol5 ($6.80 Clearance Clarence was a logical winner), Clyde Bank in AP9 (same for $5.60 Little Michael), and Incentivize in Hol6, each of whom finished off the board.

Each of my last four, maybe five picks were reaches so I can't lament bad handicapping. Rather it's just how it goes in these contests -- if you fall behind, you're not gonna come back with 5-2 shots; you only have the luxury (and it is a luxury) of considering them if you do well early in the contest. As Equinometry pointed out in a recent post, early speed is important in these events.

Next up: Preakness Day live contest at Monmouth Park, where NJ Horseplayer and I have made a pact that one of us must finish in the top 10.

Gulfstream Contest Autopsy

I'm back in one piece from the Gulfstream handicapping contest last weekend, with a dented wallet the only casualty. I only did it because I was going to Miami for work Sunday night through Tuesday, and when I saw GP's contest was Saturday and Sunday and confirmed the corporate room block started Saturday, I said why not go a day early and check it out. I'm not a serious or good enough handicapping contest player to fly all over for events like some guys do, but when transpo and room are covered, that changes the economics of the proposition.

So after a 6 a.m. Newark-to-Fort Lauderdale flight via JetBlue and a rental-car pickup, I arrived at GP very early, around 10:30 a.m. I had been to Gulfstream just once before, in January 1989, when it was only a racetrack. Thanks (or curses?) to a renovation from about six years ago, the facility is now a casino, retail complex, dining mecca, etc...oh, and a racetrack too. OK that's a bit of an exaggeration as the track does have more prominence than some racinos I've visited (e.g. Delaware Park), but horse racing is not exactly the only game in Hallandale anymore.

On to the contest itself. Specs were $400 ante including $200 live bankroll, mandatory 10 $5WP bets both Saturday and Sunday, odds capped at 20-1 for a winner and 10-1 for place. Top 3 qualify for NHC, top 10 win money.

I broke sharply when Sovereign Default won Saturday's 1Aqu at 4-1. After a few non-bets where the chalk won at all three tracks (GP, Aqu, and Tam), I was actually in first place of the 126 contestants, as I had the same bankroll as a couple rivals but I had more bets remaining. Things got even better about 1:46 into GP3, when 7.70-1 Eternal Star was coming on strongest in deep stretch and looked like a sure winner. However, he had to take up a few jumps before the wire of the race, which was timed in 1:48:88, and finished in 5th. Damn that would have been a great start.

Little did I know that was my high-water mark of the two-day contest.

There wasn't much in the way of prices at any of the tracks for about 3/4 of Saturday, so I was able to hang around on the fringe of contention (around 21st to 27th place) for most of the afternoon, helped by my only other winner of the contest, Whipsaw City ($8.20, $4.40) in GP7. That price was definitely lower than I look for in these contests and about rock-bottom for what I'd bite on, but sometimes you have to take what the tracks are giving you.

GP9 was a contest-changer. Pat Riley says an NBA playoff series doesn't start until a road team wins a game; I think a handicapping contest doesn't really start until a big price comes in. 31-1 Arch Support was that price. He was on my radar and quite possibly my second choice, but I liked 9-1 Musical Rain a bunch in that race, and he didn't lift a hoof. At least a half-dozen of my contest rivals had Arch Support, so there started to be some separation on the leaderboard.

Things got worse for me shortly afterwards when 29-1 Distant Sky won the Aqueduct finale. I didn't like the horse at all, but at least a few others did, judging by the hooting and hollering. I was able to add a few bucks to the bankroll with a 5-1 placer in the Tam finale, but that was kind of a fart in the wind given the prices that others were reeling in.

So after Saturday I was in about 50th place, not out of it by any means but I knew I'd need some prices on Sunday to have any chance of making the top 10, let alone the top 3. But at the same time, I didn't want to just stab at longshots from the opening bell, I wanted to at least give myself a chance to methodically ascend the standings with a series of reasonably-priced winners.

I did have a work conference that kicked off Sunday evening, and I made up my mind that I was only gonna stay late on Sunday if I had a real chance to finish in the top 3. In other words it was win early or go home.

That plan started to unravel when 6-1 Adela's Song loomed boldly in GP1 but hung like a chandelier and finished 4th. I then went long with 26-1 BJ's Gibson in Tam4 -- he led for 3/4 of the one-mile turf race but faded to 5th. Other prices just didn't pan out, I won't bore you with the details but they tended to be on the pricey (double-digit) side with some close calls. As I was expending bullets, prices were coming in, so I found myself sliding down the cliff by my fingernails.

After making 9 of my 10 Sunday bets, I cut my losses a tad and cashed out $97. Losing $303 was better than losing $400 of course but still a disappointing outcome.

I have no major regrets or shoulda-woulda-couldas from this event. I did totally miss a playable 15-1 winner in 7Tam on Sunday (just mental fatigue I guess), but by that point it didn't matter much, I highly doubt it would have propelled me into the top 10 even temporarily. I also probably would have liked Tapitsfly, the 5-1 winner of the Sunday GP feature, but that only mattered if I had had more winners earlier. I was close enough to keep things interesting for a while, but ultimately it just wasn't my weekend.

Few general observations:

Overall I thought Gulfstream put on a good contest -- comfortable seating, good sight lines, helpful staff, etc. My main complaint is the lack of any digital updates, as there was nothing on the website on Saturday night, and even more surprisingly, still nothing, and it's now Thursday morning. in today's information age, they can definitely do better.

Few other quibbles were an over-air conditioned room on Saturday, bad coffee, and one very annoying woman who sat a few people down from me and stomped her feet during every stretch run. By Sunday I wanted to pummel her with my Daily Racing Form.

DerbyWars Steps Up in Class

DerbyWars.com has been a welcome addition to the online handicapping contest landscape since its launch last year. For the most part I agree with the plaudits previously offered by fellow racing bloggers including Equinometry and NJHorseplayer; I won't offer my own detailed review, but suffice it to say I like DerbyWars quite a bit, mostly for its clean and streamlined functionality, lower takeout rates vis-a-vis standard wagering at the track, and wide variety of games offered. My only real quibble is that they distribute prize money a bit too evenly for my tastes, i.e. the payout structures don't reward the top finishers as much as they should.

DerbyWars is now raising the stakes considerably by offering a $25k "Monthly Shootout," the first of which will take place this Saturday, March 10. I say raising the stakes because up until now, I've considered DerbyWars as a niche player in the handicapping contest space -- lots of contests, but smaller contests, some with as few as 2 or 4 players, and antes as low as $4 to $6. Their weekend "Big Games" typically have had antes in the $25-$40 range, with $1k-$5k pots. DW did offer a handful of NHC seats through contests last fall, but otherwise they've been going after smaller-bankrolled players who are looking for a little action. So in my view they haven't really been competing directly with the NHCQualify.coms and HorseTourneys.coms of the world, whose games involve $100-$400 antes and NHC spots, or smaller antes and feeder routes to the NHC.

The DW Monthly Shootout will have a $175 ante, with the winner collecting $10k. They seem to be doing well generating buzz and interest, as the contest is already 68/165 filled as of Sunday morning March 4, six days before the event. But can DerbyWars compete on an ongoing basis at this higher weight class?

In my opinion, the answer is a qualified yes. DerbyWars has done a good job getting its name out there, and the site itself is better than their sometimes-clunky competitors. Additionally, DW is probably the most nimble and customer-service-oriented online contest venue out there, so it's reasonable to assume they have a good pulse of the market and their read that there is a demand for this bigger game is correct.

However, my reservation about DW's step up in class pertains to the lack of an NHC tie-in. The NHC is the Holy Grail for this contest player (and I assume many others), and given the unfortunate reality that contest-playing can be an expensive hobby, I'm not super keen on allocating significant dollars to anything without the NHC on the other side of the rainbow. I won about $3,150 net on racing in 2011 (my first plus year in a while), but I'm already down $1,300 in 2012; in an ideal world I'd already be qualified for NHC2013 and would be much more inclined to play a $175 non-NHC game, but for the time being I don't see myself putting up that ante. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to play the Shoot Out and I may well try a smaller DW game that offers a qualifying spot, but $175 for a non-NHC game is a bit rich for my blood.

Add it all up and I think DerbyWars can pull off these bigger games, but they'll have to pick their spots carefully and minimize direct competition with NHC events. To firmly establish themselves in this higher weight class, i.e. to have demand consistently meet or exceed supply, some NHC tie-in will be needed.

Is Handicapping Indicated?

It's all a big nothing. -- Livia Soprano

I played two handicapping contests on Sat. Feb. 18. My results were as follows:

Monmouth Park Simulcast Series Challenge #2
Ante: $200
Preparation: 1-2 hours beforehand, plus all Saturday afternoon
Resources: DRF past performances, Equibase.com race results, GradeOneRacing.com research
Result: Lost all 9 bets, finished with $0 bankroll, tied for last place

NHC Tour Online Challenge
Ante: Free for NHC Tour members
Preparation: None
Resources: Used my phone to enter the contest and make random picks
Result: 2 winners including capper plus 2 placers over 8 races. Finished 9th of 1,638, five places and $12.80 away from qualifying for 2013 NHC

From these very divergent results, the only logical conclusion is that handicapping is a complete waste of time and money and stabbing is the way to go - all it takes is $50 (cost of NHC Tour membership) and a dream!

Okay I'm kidding, but it was a pretty bizarro day.

I went into the day all about SSC#2, as I'm not a big fan of the online free-for-alls and focusing on one contest with 3 tracks is hard enough. But the online freebies do qualify people for Vegas, and your chances are a lot better than hitting the Powerball, so of course I'm gonna get some picks in and hope lightning strikes. So after forgetting to enter my picks on Friday night and then again on Saturday morning before leaving home, I finally remembered and entered picks from my phone after visiting Belmar Barber Shop (be the first to review this on Yelp).

I got a chuckle when my stab Wachacha won GP3, the first NHCT contest race, at cap odds. Things got more interesting when my selection Con the Cat won Aqu5 at 6-1. I placed in 2 of the next 3 races, then lost 2 -- I was only paying attention a little because I was busy losing in SSC.

Around late afternoon I was in 8th place in NHCT, about $12 out of 4th place and an NHC13 spot. I also learned that FG7 and FG8, the 8th and 9th races in NHCT, were cancelled, leaving only SA5 as the final race in NHCT. Hot damn, I thought -- I would have one race to break into the top 4. All I ask in a contest is to be in it with a chance late in the day, and this opportunity is presented to me on a silver platter!

But in the day's biggest disappointment -- which didn't even happen on the track -- SA-freaking-5 scratches down from 8 horses to 4, essentially killing my chances. To leapfrog 5 people in front of me I needed to find at least a mid-priced horse in a race with a substantial dispersion of opinion -- in a 4-horse field, that wasn't gonna happen. In a fitting end to my day, the chalk won and I lost.

Not much to say about my 0-for-9 showing in the live event, it just wasn't my day. Outside of the capper that I had in NHC Tour contest, Gulfstream was very chalky, which never bodes well for my chances. I was distracted by the online thing starting about late afternoon, but I can't say that made a difference.

Not that it matters a hill of beans but I looked back and it appears that FG5, the 5th race in NHCT contest, screwed me. I had 5-1 Oh Whata Holiday, who finished 2nd by a neck to 6-1 Divine Lorretta. Give me the woulda-been $12.20 win price on Oh Whata Holiday, back out $15.60 from (probably) a few people in front of me that had Divine Lorretta, and I could have had my ticket punched for NHC2013 in most improbable fashion.

Oh well.

Inauspicious '12 Bow

Came up snake eyes in yesterday's Simulcast Series Challenge Invitational at Monmouth Park: $0 final bankroll, tied for last place.

I had a brief run at contention in late afternoon, when my $20W bet on Tarpy's Goal ($11) in GP7 pushed up my bankroll up from half-the-starting-point $50 to $140. This put me about 18th place in a 134-person field where the top 10 finishers won prize money and the top 15 qualified for the April SSC Invitational, which sends 2 players to the 2013 NHC.

But alas, that $140 proved to be my high-water mark as I didn't hit another bet, the biggest of which were $30W on 21-1 Navy Wings in GP8 (ran evenly in mid-pack) and $50W on 5-1 Chosen Heir in GP9 (finished dead last, yikes).

I did make some questionable decisions with my last $50. Rather than concentrate on one price play as I would typically do, I went $25W on 7-2 Canadian Mistress in Tam10 and $25W on 2-1 Cozzetti in the almost-concurrent GP10. My plan was to hit both, or at least one, of the 'safe' plays and boost my bankroll enough to take a bigger shot in the final two races.

But as Mike Tyson said, everybody has a plan until they get hit. Both my 'safe' plays lost (Cozzetti was especially disappointing for a horse who opened at 3-5), and NJHorseplayer and I took an ignominious exit out into the frigid winter landscape.

I have no real regrets from this day. I liked both the Navy Wings and the Chosen Heir bets. I did sort of dodge a bullet in the sense that even if I had played my last $50 better, the outcome would have been the same as I most likely would not have had the winners in the 10th and 11th races at either track, including the $35 winner in the Tampa feach.

Onward and upward, next stop SSC #2 at Monmouth Park on Feb. 18.

I'm Not Going to Vegas (After All)!

Kind of old news but I wanted to update the blog.

To recap: I was gonna go to the Last Chance NHC Qualifier in Vegas on Wed. Jan. 25 because I won what I thought was a $500 entry into the contest and a $500 travel voucher in a Dec. 26 HorsePlayersQualify.com contest. I was totally there.

But the $500 entry + $500 "travel voucher" (is there such a thing?) showed up in my mailbox in the form of a plain old $1,000 check, which prompted me to reassess my plan.

I was still gonna go, last week I even went as far as booking a flight ($340 r/t, Newark to Vegas). BUT just a couple hours after I booked, I learned that NHCQualify was having a last chance, $400 online contest on Sunday Jan. 8, that offered about the same or a slightly better chance to qualify compared with the Vegas Last Chance.

So at that point I said ah screw it, cancelled my flight, signed up for NHCQualify, and tucked the $600 into my proverbial pocket to deploy for future contests.

Ultimately I opted out because the Vegas trip just felt like a goose chase. As I said previously, I totally would be in if they signed me up and told me to just show up. But when it turned into a discretionary decision, my thinking went along these lines:
1. The specs of the last-chance Vegas contest-- $500 ante, 5 NHC spots, max 150 field, 30% back in prize money 70% to NHC pot -- are nothing special.
2. I dislike flying, so the idea of night and redeye flights was not appealing. Granted there would be some adventure to going to Vegas, but for me that would be trumped by (probably) losing in the contest followed by a 7-hour full flight in the middle seat, culminating in a 6am arrival at Newark airport. I would be dirty, tired, and cranky -- no thanks!
3. When I won some coin back in March at a Monmouth contest, I didn't use the money to start flying to contests all over the place, so why would I do it this time (with just 1/6 of my March winnings)?

So that's my story and I'm sticking to it. There will be no NHC for me in 2012 (I finished up the track in the NHCQualify Last Chance this past Sunday).

I am looking forward to the long journey towards the 2013 NHC, which I hereby GUARANTEE I will qualify for. If I fail to qualify, I will give all readers a free one-year premium subscription to the RedRockorBust blog.

The fun starts next Saturday at Monmouth Park.

I'm Going to Vegas*!

*but probably not for the NHC

That's right. I didn't qualify for the 2012 NHC, but I did qualify for a play-in contest to the 2012 NHC via Horseplayersqualify.com.

Here's how it went down. After being pretty much resigned to my fate of not qualifying for the 2012 NHC because I failed to qualify in the first 11 3/4 months of 2011, I received an e-mail from William H. at NJHorseplayer.com that mentioned he would be participating in today's contest, which I had been unaware of. I wasn't crazy about the specs, i.e. 1/3 takeout and seemingly a wild-goose chase to Vegas, but given the low $50 ante and with me nursing a Christmas cold and half a box of wine to kick, I figured I'd give it a whirl and sign up.

I didn't spend much time on the PPs, but the planets aligned for my tried-and-true short-cut angles. Trainer recency landed me on American Blend at 5SA ($23 to win, $9.40 to place) and Voce de Leone in 9GP ($10.80, $5), while an odds-movement pattern pointed me to Gorgelicious in 7GP ($10.60 to place). Throw in a few logical chalks (What a Rush in 2SA, Bernster in 3SA, Tiz a Theme in 11GP), and I had enough notional bankroll to finish in 6th place of 240 contestants.

So along with the five folks who finished ahead of me and the two who finished right behind me, I won a free entry to the Treasure Island play-in on Wednesday Jan. 25 ($500 value), plus a $500 travel voucher to Sin City.

I'm not sure what the specs are for the play-in, but given the fairly steep $500 ante I'm assuming it'll come with a reasonable chance to qualify, perhaps 1/15 or somesuch. I'll plan to go to Vegas on Tues Jan. 24 and return late-night Wed. Jan. 25; I'll try to fly Southwest (no change fees), so on the off chance that I qualify I'll stick around for the NHC, which is Fri Jan. 27-Sat Jan. 28.

I kind of feel like a middling college team heading into its conference tourney on a hot (or at least warm) streak, hoping to win at least a couple more games to qualify for the NCAA tournament.

I probably won't qualify, but it will be fun.