Push/Pull

In my view, much of what determines success or failure in handicapping contests comes down to the delicate balance between boldness and conservatism. The push and the pull.

The ultimate aggressive move would be laying down your entire bankroll on a price play in the first contest race. The ultimate in conservatism would be making minimum-bet plays on favorites throughout the card. The first approach could win you a contest once in a blue moon, but most days it would have you broke and out the door at 1:05 p.m. The second tack could have you on the fringe of contention sometimes, and likely would get you at least some of your bankroll back at the end of real-money contests, but realistically it would never win you anything.

Of course, neither of those strategies is optimal; like most things in life, the way, the truth, and the light lie somewhere in between.

I've had a number of contest also-ran finishes over the years that I attribute at least partly to being overly aggressive -- either making a big bet early on or too quickly squandering a leaderboard position with substantial bets. I don't recall ever kicking myself afterwards for being too conservative, which I believe would sting more than being too bold.

But the challenge, and the beauty, of finding the sweet spot on the safety-risk spectrum is that it is a moving target, and you don't know where the sweet spot was until after the Official sign lights on the toteboard after the final contest race. If the chalk won a bunch of races on a given day, conservatism was rewarded, whereas risk takers won if there were prices. Similarly, you don't know which of your selections will win beforehand, so having only $10 on that 15-1 winner looks pretty pansy-ass at the end of a losing day, while putting $150 on a 15-1 loser would probably seem foolish and overly risky in retrospect.

In my view, a contest player's best approach is to operate within a band of the safety-risk spectrum and be ready and willing to adjust on the fly. So say on a scale of 1-10, 1 is super conservative and 10 is as ballsy as you can get. I like to think I operate in about the 6-to-7.5 range on balance, and I'm willing to go anywhere from 1 (when capital preservation is needed) to 10 (when a Hail Mary is my only hope).

One application of this may come in this Saturday's Simulcast Series Challenge #1 at Monmouth Park. From what I understand the only rule change is that the top 15 finishers qualify for the invitational tourney in April, up from 10 last year. I think this may make many players a bit more conservative, simply because you don't got's to do as good to come in 15th place as you do 10th place. Based on that theory, I may decide to up my risk taking, because as Warren Buffett says, be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy.

But we'll see, it will be an on-the-fly call, and of course I have to pick some winners for any of this mumbo jumbo to matter a hill of beans.

2011 Kickoff

I am participating -- kind of -- in the 2011 NHC Online Kickoff Challenge, set for tomorrow, Sunday January 2.

I say "kind of" because I only scanned the PPs as the basis for my submitted picks, and most likely I will make no additional effort tomorrow beyond checking to see if any of my picks are early scratches.

My tepid interest can be attributed to a few factors:

(1) In general, I'm not a big fan of online contests. Not only do they lack the competitive 'feel' of live events, but many online events are so big that placing in them is akin to winning the lottery. Online contests often have ~800 participants, which means that a very very good day will most likely be not good enough, you need to have a transcendent day. I prefer contests where a very very good day is rewarded.

Don't get me wrong, online contests do send people to Vegas, so it's worth tossing my hat into the ring. Maybe one of these days my lottery number will come in.

(2) As a semi-regular, semi-serious horseplayer, I typically am in a dormant phase from around Breeders Cup to mid- to late-January or thereabouts. Being that I haven't really been following the sport, I'm kidding myself if I think I'm gonna jump in cold and add value in trying to pick a winner in the $5K claimer at Fair Grounds.

(3) NFL is on tomorrow. 'nuff said.

I've circled Saturday, Jan. 15 on my calendar for my first real contest endeavour of 2011. In the meantime, my picks tomorrow are as follows:

Race 1 / (2) Manchild
Race 2 / (10) La Belle Gabrielle
Race 3 / (3) Rightuplynn'salley
Race 4 / (9) Roaring Belle
Race 5 / (1) D'oro Princess
Race 6 / (5) Devil's Hammock
Race 7 / (8) Cajun Sky
Race 8 / (6) Devils Afleet
Race 9 / (3) Thunder Chop
Race 10 / (2) Matamor

Good luck!

Early Musings on 2011 NHC Tour

I just signed up for the new (and improved?) 2011 NHC Tour. It will be my third year on the tour -- over the past two years I forked over a combined $200 and got back only one t-shirt. Yes, it was an expensive t-shirt.

I'm hoping the third time's a charm as far as qualifying for the National Handicapping Championship -- I definitely came the closest I've ever been in 2010, so perhaps a little better luck in '11 will put me over the hump.

The 2011 tour has been goosed -- the pot for the January 2012 event will increase to $2 million including a $1 million winner's share, up from $1.1 million and $500K for next month's contest. The field will rise to 500 contestants from 321, and the cost of joining the NHC Tour has been reduced from $100 to $45.

In a big-picture sense, I like to see the NTRA Tour expansion because it shows that the handicapping contest circuit is alive and well, even as the horse racing industry struggles mightily. This is no surprise to this NJ-based contest player: Monmouth Park contests have been consistently well-attended for years amid growing questions about that track's very survival, and the two NYRA events I played this summer sold out, with the full contest room and lines at the buffet providing a marked contrast to the tumbleweed blowing around the rest of the track.

However, more is not always better. I find that about 200 players in a handicapping contest is a sweet spot -- it's enough to make it interesting, very challenging, and potentially very lucrative, yet there aren't so many people that it feels like this funny commercial. And overall, the NHC Tour in recent years just felt like the right difficulty level in terms of making it to the Big Dance -- plenty challenging for full-timers, and super difficult for just a semi-regular weekend player like myself.

Going from 321 to 500 players is a huge increase, more than 50% in fact -- certainly it improves my chances to sneak in, and I hope the bigger NHC Tour is a success, but I also hope that the powers that be realize they may be fixing something that was not broken.

Another Year, Another Bust

Despite a fair amount of attempts and some close calls, once again I did not qualify for the DRF/NTRA Handicapping Championship (cue the violins). So I will not be at the Red Rock in Las Vegas on the weekend of Jan. 28-29; being that this blog is named Red Rock or Bust, I must therefore declare an official state of bust.

I apologize for being a lazy @$&*! and not blogging much this year (that's an understatement). I have no excuse. But I will offer a brief 2010 recap here and I hope to be more active in 2011.

While I did not qualify for NHC, I did have a decent year on the contest circuit. The highlight was definitely placing 5th of 219 in a February handicapping contest at Monmouth Park, which got me to the April invitational, earned me some pin money for subsequent qualifying attempts, and restored faith in my ability to compete in these things.

I got a run for my money in the April invitational, when I was actually on my way to Las Vegas as of 5:30 p.m. -- the problem was that there were still about 45 minutes and 4 contest races left (I faded). Similarly, I was on my way to Vegas as of about 4:50 p.m. on the day of Monmouth's big contest in August, but again I couldn't close the deal.

Another highlight was taking my show on the road (outside NJ, that is) for the first time -- I participated in NYRA contests at Belmont in June and Aqueduct in November. I finished in mid-pack in both events; did better in the AQU affair, where I shoulda woulda coulda made some noise if a couple photos went my way (including a 24-1 capper at Churchill Downs who lost by a head).

All told I think I played nine live contests this year: four early in the year at Monmouth, three during Monmouth's live meet, plus the two NYRA affairs. I generated a very small net profit: +~ $1,700 in the Feb. contest and ~$200 in two other contests, minus the entry fees of the others. I did fail to qualify for NHC, but I can never complain about breaking even or better and having a lot of fun in the process.

Big picture, I still can't say conclusively that I'm any better than other contest players. I figger I'm played in about 35-40 contests over the past seven years approximately, and I've placed in the top 10 twice. Using a roughly average contest field size of 200, that means an average player has a 1-in-20 chance of placing in the top 10, which is about what I've shown. But I've yet to qualify for the NHC, which is the ultimate prize -- I'll trade a couple dozen off-the-board contest finishes over a few down years for one shot at NHC glory anytime.

At any rate, what's in store for 2011? Who knows. If I'm still above ground and solvent, I'll most likely be taking semi-regular shots to qualify for the 2012 NHC, starting with a Jan. 15 event at Monmouth Park. There are changes afoot for the Big Dance, including a bigger pot, a significantly expanded field and a different dues structure for the NHC Tour. Regarding the blog, I hope to be more active, and may also collaborate in some manner with bitter NHC Tour rival William H.

Happy Holidays!

Opportunity missed!

I liked Stately Victor yesterday. I didn't blog about it on here, unfortunately, but in e-mails sent to a friend (with the subject line stately victor) last Thursday April 8, I wrote:

"I may like him a bunch in the Bluegrass. No ML yet but I'm guessing he'll be reasonably priced as well, perhaps 6-1 ish."

Then I followed up with:

"geez I see stately is listed at 30-1. Guess I should look a little closer."

When he asked why I liked him, I replied:

"trips, mostly. That race he had from the 14 post last fall was a total throwout and he actually didn't run that bad. The GP turf was speed-favoring for much of the meet, at least what I saw, so I'm willing to give him passes for his recent races. So I just think his chances are nowhere near as bad as they look from the PPs -- Obviously he's gonna need to step up big-time on his figs, but as an early -year 3yo and with a surface change, its not entirely implausible."

So when my one highlighted horse going into a big contest day wins at 40-to freaking-1, uhhh...I probably should win the contest. But alas, I didn't. Here's my story, it's sad but true:

I couldn't pick my nose all afternoon. Lost 9 consecutive $20 bets. Mostly Kee, some GP and Aqu. No bombers, odds were mostly in 8/5 to 6/1 range, maybe a couple 7/1 to 10/1. Had a range of results -- a few I thought might win as late as deep stretch , a few were reasonably in the mix, and a few ran crummy. On the 25-person leaderboard I was mostly low 20s, then actually fell off the leaderboard (meaning bottom 5) - it was that kind of day. Meanwhile someone had apparently played >$100 on a 23-1 debut winner at Kee and was pretty much locked into first all day with about 2800-2900, so the race was essentially for second.

So with my $200 bankroll 90% depleted, I put my last $20 on Stately Victor, shocked that he was 40-1 (earlier in the day I had projected he'd go off 16-18 ish to one, 30-1 ML be damned), and lo and behold he wins going away and I vault from off the leaderboard into 2nd place with $822 in one fell swoop. Incredible. But it wasn't by much, there were probably 5-6 guys within $150 of me, 4-5 contest races left, and I had a big target on my back.

And alas, I went right back to my losing ways, dropped two more $20 bets, and I'm at $782 and in like 7th or 8th place, before the last contest race , the Kee finale. I say what the hell and go hell-bent for leather, put $500 W on the 1 horse (who was 9-2 when I bet him a few mins. to post, went off at 7-2) in an audacious attempt to take down the whole thing. The horse never really ran a lick tho, and I cashed out $282, up $82 on the day, a booby prize if there ever was one. Funny I'm almost certain that $500 was the most I've ever bet in a race, but it felt like monopoly money, the time between 530 (bluegrass) and 615 (last contest race) was so fast and furious, just a blur.

So that's my long and sordid tale. I'm kicking myself for not setting aside more than $20 for Stately Victor, obviously. I didn't stick around to see the final leaderboard, I guesstimate 2nd place finished with 1200-1400 ish, so even just $40W on Stately Victor could have punched my ticket for Vegas next January.

As far as losing the 9 pre- Bluegrass bets, there are shoulda woulda couldas of course, a couple of which are gonna linger in my cranium: (1) in a GP maiden race late in the afternoon, there was a 2-1 fave and two 5-2 shots, I didn't like the fave and pretty much decided on one of the 5/2 shots, though kind of inexplicably I changed course between my seat and the bettting machine and went with the other 5/2 shot, and of course my originally selected 5/2 shot wins. That was the difference between having $70 left for the Bluegrass and having $20 left. (2) there were two longshots I was intrigued by in GP turf races: Highland Cat (12-1) in the 3rd and Scorion (30-1) in the 5th. Both finished 2nd to the chalks, paying $9.40 and $20.60 to place, respectively, but I had talked myself out of both and laid off those races. I'm not a big fan of place betting but there is a "place" for it (pun intended) in certain situations, and arguably, one or both of situations qualified. Even one $10WP bet on Highland Cat or Scorion could have meant more money for Stately Victor.

Oh well. Onward and upward I guess.

Am I back? Maybe

OK it's obvious that RedRockorBust hasn't been the most frequently updated blog in the blogosphere in recent months. I kind of faded out toward the second half of last year simply because I wasn't really playing in any contests. I've played a few this year, but been very very busy with work so I haven't had the time or motivation to give the blog much attention. I'm thinking I will now get it going again, at least once in a while.

Anyway, here is a quick an' dirty update on my 2010 contest playing.

I participated in all three contests in Monmouth Park's Simulcast Series Challenge -- January 16, February 14, and February 27. The main goal was to finish in the top 10 in at least one of the contests, in order to qualify for the 30-person invitational contest on April 11 (from which the top 2 finishers qualify for the DRF/NTRA contest in Vegas in January 2011).

The Jan. 16 contest was a big shoulda-woulda-coulda for me, as I came close to betting on a 30-1 winner at Tampa, which probably would have been enough to put me in the top 10 even with just a small bet. But I switched to another horse shortly before post time, and that was that. Cashed out $6.50 from a starting bankroll of $100.

The Feb. 14 affair was a bit of a bust, as I never really was in contention. Had a brief thrill when a 18-1 shot made the lead in the stretch in the Gulfstream feature, but she couldn't hold on. Turned my $100 into $0.

But I finally broke through on Feb. 27. I had a couple smallish winners early in the afternoon -- $10W on 3-1 and 6-1 winners -- that kept me in the hunt, then I turned it on late at Gulfstream. I had $10W on a 10-1 winner in the one stakes, then $100W on Amen Hallelujah at 2-1 (loved the relative value on that horse versus the way-overbet Bickersons, and sure enough she ran like a 1-2 shot rather than 2-1). I then lost a bet or two and was at $361/13th place heading into the final GP race -- hung a little fire and played $140W on First National, a 5-1 Pitts/Maragh winner in the off-the-turf finale, and he came running late to get past a drifting-out longshot by 3/4 of a length. Finished 5th of 219 with a $1,089 bankroll -- usually that fig is enough to win these contests, but I guess the blues were running that day so to speak, I ain't complaining.

Now onto tomorrow.

Not to brag or anything, but...

...I'm a pretty big deal.

Actually I think is more accurately categorized under "even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while".

Either way, Saturday should be interesting.