Saturday, May 2, 2009

Contest Day #2

I'm tied for 208th after day 1 of the NHC Tour Kentucky Oaks/Derby online contest, with a $13.60 bankroll.  The current leader has $90.60, and there are 15 players with at least $64, so needless to say I have some catching up to do.

My picks are as follows:
Contest Race #6, Eight Belles S.: Warrior Maid (10-1 ML)
Contest Race #7, Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.: Sugar Mint (6-1)
Contest Race #8, Humana Distaff S.: Game Face (2-1)
Contest Race #9, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S.: Zambezi Sun (10-1)
Contest Race #10, Kentucky Derby: Hold Me Back (15-1)

I leaned towards picking prices rather than the most likely winner of the races because if today is chalky, I have no chance even if I run the table.  Realistically, I probably need Hold Me Back to win the Kentucky Derby, and win at least 3 of the other 4 contest races to have any chance.  I imagine that improbable outcome would put me in the top 30 (where I'd earn some NHC Tour points), but it's highly questionable that it would put me in the top 2.  

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