I'm in the camp that believes Mine That Bird is a throwout. I swear, I think he will go down in history as a mammoth Kentucky Derby fluke, the likes of which we haven't seen since Lil E. Tee won under Pat Day in 1992. Of course, if I'm wrong I'll be eating crow.
Rachel Alexandra looks formidable, but I'm willing to give Friesan Fire a pass for his no-show Derby, and he is my pick on Saturday. I don't think Friesan had the worst trip in the world at Churchill, but Derby history is littered with top horses who didn't run a lick in the Derby and came back strong. I haven't seen any morning lines yet but I'd guess Friesan may go off at 5-1 at least, which would be decent-enough odds.
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3 weeks ago